1,062 research outputs found
Graphics for uncertainty
Graphical methods such as colour shading and animation, which are widely available, can be very effective in communicating uncertainty. In particular, the idea of a âdensity stripâ provides a conceptually simple representation of a distribution and this is explored in a variety of settings, including a comparison of means, regression and models for contingency tables. Animation is also a very useful device for exploring uncertainty and this is explored particularly in the context of flexible models, expressed in curves and surfaces whose structure is of particular interest. Animation can further provide a helpful mechanism for exploring data in several dimensions. This is explored in the simple but very important setting of spatiotemporal data
Estimating stellar oscillation-related parameters and their uncertainties with the moment method
The moment method is a well known mode identification technique in
asteroseismology (where `mode' is to be understood in an astronomical rather
than in a statistical sense), which uses a time series of the first 3 moments
of a spectral line to estimate the discrete oscillation mode parameters l and
m. The method, contrary to many other mode identification techniques, also
provides estimates of other important continuous parameters such as the
inclination angle alpha, and the rotational velocity v_e. We developed a
statistical formalism for the moment method based on so-called generalized
estimating equations (GEE). This formalism allows the estimation of the
uncertainty of the continuous parameters taking into account that the different
moments of a line profile are correlated and that the uncertainty of the
observed moments also depends on the model parameters. Furthermore, we set up a
procedure to take into account the mode uncertainty, i.e., the fact that often
several modes (l,m) can adequately describe the data. We also introduce a new
lack of fit function which works at least as well as a previous discriminant
function, and which in addition allows us to identify the sign of the azimuthal
order m. We applied our method to the star HD181558, using several numerical
methods, from which we learned that numerically solving the estimating
equations is an intensive task. We report on the numerical results, from which
we gain insight in the statistical uncertainties of the physical parameters
involved in the moment method.Comment: The electronic online version from the publisher can be found at
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2005.00487.
Adaptive Covariance Estimation with model selection
We provide in this paper a fully adaptive penalized procedure to select a
covariance among a collection of models observing i.i.d replications of the
process at fixed observation points. For this we generalize previous results of
Bigot and al. and propose to use a data driven penalty to obtain an oracle
inequality for the estimator. We prove that this method is an extension to the
matricial regression model of the work by Baraud
Maximizing the Conditional Expected Reward for Reaching the Goal
The paper addresses the problem of computing maximal conditional expected
accumulated rewards until reaching a target state (briefly called maximal
conditional expectations) in finite-state Markov decision processes where the
condition is given as a reachability constraint. Conditional expectations of
this type can, e.g., stand for the maximal expected termination time of
probabilistic programs with non-determinism, under the condition that the
program eventually terminates, or for the worst-case expected penalty to be
paid, assuming that at least three deadlines are missed. The main results of
the paper are (i) a polynomial-time algorithm to check the finiteness of
maximal conditional expectations, (ii) PSPACE-completeness for the threshold
problem in acyclic Markov decision processes where the task is to check whether
the maximal conditional expectation exceeds a given threshold, (iii) a
pseudo-polynomial-time algorithm for the threshold problem in the general
(cyclic) case, and (iv) an exponential-time algorithm for computing the maximal
conditional expectation and an optimal scheduler.Comment: 103 pages, extended version with appendices of a paper accepted at
TACAS 201
Geodynamic evolution of the lithosphere and upper mantle beneath the Alboran region of the western Mediterranean: Constraints from travel time tomography
An edited version of this paper was published by the American Geophysical Union. Copyright 2000, AGU.
See also:
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2000/2000JB900024.shtml;
http://atlas.geo.cornell.edu/morocco/publications/calvert2000.htmA number of different geodynamic models have been proposed to explain the extension that occurred during the Miocene in the Alboran Sea region of the western Mediterranean despite the continued convergence and shortening of northern Africa and southern Iberia. In an effort to provide additional geophysical constraints on these models, we performed a local, regional, and teleseismic tomographic travel time inversion for the lithospheric and upper mantle velocity structure and earthquake locations beneath the Alboran region in an area of 800 x 800 km^2. We picked P and S arrival times from digital and analog seismograms recorded by 96 seismic stations in Morocco and Spain between 1989 and 1996 and combined them with arrivals carefully selected from local and global catalogs (1964-1998) to generate a starting data set containing over 100,000 arrival times. Our results indicate that a N-S line of intermediate depth earthquakes extending from crustal depths significantly inland from the southern Iberian coat to depths of over 100 km beneath the center of the Alboran Sea coincided with a W to E transition from high to low velocities imaged in the uppermost mantle. A high-velocity body, striking approximately NE-SW, is imaged to dip southeastwards from lithospheric depths beneath the low-velocity region to depths of ~350 km. Between 350 and 500 km the imaged velocity anomalies become more diffuse. However, pronounced high-velocity anomalies are again imaged at 600 km near an isolated cluster of deep earthquakes. In addition to standard tomographic methods of error assessment, the effects of systematic and random errors were assessed using block shifting and bootstrap resampling techniques, respectively. We interpret the upper mantle high-velocity anomalies as regions of colder mantle that originate from lithospheric depths. These observations, when combined with results from other studies, suggest that delamination of a continental lithosphere played an important role in the Neogene and Quaternary evolution of the region
Propagation of regional seismic phases (Lg and Sn) and Pn velocity structure along the Africa-Iberia plate boundary zone
An edited version of this paper was published by Blackwell Publishing. Copyright 2000, Blackwell Publishing.
See also:
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1046/j.1365-246x.2000.00160.x;
http://atlas.geo.cornell.edu/morocco/publications/calvert2000GJI.htmWe used over 1000 regional waveforms recorded by 60 seismic stations located in northwest Africa and Iberia to map the efficiency of L g and Sn wave propagation beneath the Gulf of Cadiz, Alboran Sea and bounding Betic, Rif and Atlas mountain belts. Crustal attenuation is inferred from the tomographic inversion of L g/Pg amplitude ratios. Upper mantle attenuation is inferred from maps of Sn propagation efficiency derived by inversion of well-defined qualitative efficiency assignments based on waveform characteristics. Regions of L g attenuation correlate well with areas of thinned continental or oceanic crust, significant sedimentary basins, and lateral crustal variations. Comparison of the Sn efficiency results with velocities obtained from an anisotropic Pn traveltime inversion shows a fairly good correlation between regions of poor Sn efficiency and low Pn velocity. A low Pn velocity (7.6?7.8 km s-1) and significant Sn attenuation in the uppermost mantle is imaged beneath the Betics in southern Spain, in sharp contrast to the relatively normal Pn velocity (8.0?8.1 km s-1) and efficient Sn imaged beneath the Alboran Sea. Slow Pn velocity anomalies are also imaged beneath the Rif and Middle Atlas in Morocco. We do not identify any conclusive evidence of lithospheric-scale upper mantle attenuation beneath the Rif, although the crust in the Gibraltar region appears highly attenuating, making observations at stations in this region ambiguous. Paths crossing the Gulf of Cadiz, eastern Atlantic and the Moroccan and Iberian mesetas show very efficient Sn propagation and are imaged with high Pn velocities (8.1?8.2 km s-1). The spatial distribution of attenuation and velocity anomalies lead us to conclude that some recovery of the mantle lid beneath the Alboran Sea must have occurred since the early Miocene episode of extension and volcanism. We interpret the low velocity and attenuating regions beneath the Betics and possibly the Rif as indicating the presence of partial melt in the uppermost mantle which may be underlain by faster less attenuating mantle. In the light of observations from other geophysical and geological studies, the presence of melt at the base of the Betic crust may be an indication that delamination of continental lithosphere has played a role in the Neogene evolution of the Alboran Sea region
Long-Term PIT and T-Bar Anchor Tag Retention Rates in Adult Muskellunge
Mark-recapture studies require knowledge of tag retention rates specific to tag types, fish species and size, and study duration. We determined the probability of tag loss for passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags implanted into dorsal musculature, T-bar anchor tags attached to dorsal pterygiophores, and loss of both tags in relation to years post-tagging for double-marked adult muskellunge Esox masquinongy over a 10 year period. We also used PIT tags as a benchmark to assess the interactive effects of fish length at tagging, sex, and years post-tagging on T-bar anchor tag loss rates. Only five instances of PIT tag loss were identified; the calculated probability of a fish losing its PIT tag was consistently \u3c 1.0% for up to 10 years post-tagging. The probability of T-bar anchor tag loss by muskellunge was related to the number of years post-tagging and total length of fish at tagging. T-bar anchor tag loss rate one year after tagging was 6.5%. Individuals \u3c 750 mm total length at tagging had anchor tag loss rates \u3c 10% for up to 6 years after tagging. However, the proportion of fish losing T-bar anchor tags steadily increased with increasing years post-tagging (~30% after 6 years) for larger muskellunge. Fish gender did not influence probability of T-bar anchor tag loss. Our results indicate that T-bar anchor tags are best suited for short-term applications (†1 year duration) involving adult muskellunge. We recommend use of PIT tags for longer-term tagging studies, particularly for muskellunge \u3e 750 mm total length
Uncertainty in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of sustainable aviation fuels from vegetable oils
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is one of the most promising short-to medium-term term options to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from aviation. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is commonly used to estimate GHG emissions from SAF in comparison to fossil kerosene. While there are several studies reporting the GHG emissions from SAF, uncertainty in the results is not always addressed in a comprehensive way.
In this work, GHG emissions of hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) fuels derived from jatropha (Jatropha curcas), pennycress (Thlaspi arvense), castor (Ricinus communis), energy tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum, Solaris) and Salicornia (Salicornia bigelovii) oils were estimated. A stochastic methodology was employed where parametric uncertainty was propagated using Monte Carlo simulations. Uncertainty due to methodological choices was incorporated through scenario analyses. Emissions from direct land use change (DLUC) and the associated uncertainty were assessed under the IPCC Tier 1 approach by considering alternative land use transitions per feedstock.
Analyzed HEFA pathways provide GHG emissions benefits (34â65%) in comparison to fossil kerosene when DLUC emissions are not considered. Parametric uncertainty yields up to 26% deviation from the median well-to-wake GHG emissions. Changing the allocation choice for the oil extraction step, from the base assumption of energy-based allocation to mass- or market-based, can impact the results by up to 46%. DLUC is a more significant source of uncertainty than both parametric uncertainty and allocation assumptions in the analysis. DLUC emissions negate any GHG savings from HEFA fuels if forests or natural shrublands are lost
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