From Predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather: Practical Examples of Research-to-Operations and Operations-to-Research

The successful transition of research to operations (R2O) and operations to research (O2R) requires, above all, interaction between the two communities. We explore the role that close interaction and ongoing communication played in the successful fielding of three separate developments: an observation platform, a numerical model, and a visualization and specification tool. Additionally, we will examine how these three pieces came together to revolutionize interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival forecasts. A discussion of the importance of education and training in ensuring a positive outcome from R2O activity follows. We describe efforts by the meteorological community to make research results more accessible to forecasters and the applicability of these efforts to the transfer of space-weather research.We end with a forecaster "wish list" for R2O transitions. Ongoing, two-way communication between the research and operations communities is the thread connecting it all.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figures, Solar Physics in pres

An open access, integrated XAS data repository at Diamond Light Source

The analysis of reference materials is a fundamental part of the data analysis process, in particular for XAS experiments. The beamline users and more generally the XAS community can greatly benefit from the availability of a reliable and wide base of reference sample spectra, acquired in standard and well-characterized experimental conditions. On B18, the Core EXAFS beamline at the Diamond Light Source, in the past years we have collected a series of XAS data on well characterized compounds. This work constitutes the base for a reference sample database, available as a data analysis tool to the general XAS community. This data repository aims to complement the bare spectroscopic information with characterisation, preparation, provenance, analysis and bibliographic references, so improving the traceability of the deposited information. This integrated approach is the base of success and wide distribution of data repositories in other fields, and we hope it will provide on one side a precious facility for the training of students and researchers new to the technique, and at the same time encourage the discussion of best practices in the data analysis process. The database will be open to the contribution of experimental data from the user community, and will provide bibliographic reference information and access control

Potential of imprecision: exploring vague language in agent instructors

As we find greater potential for agent instructors, we must be aware of how their language use can affect the user and interaction as a whole. This study investigates the use of intentionally imprecise or vague language as a communicative strategy to mitigate the impact of instructions. We look at the effects it has on improving the perception of agents and user performance. A series of assembly tasks were ran in which users constructed Lego models with the spoken instructions of vague and non-vague agents. Results show that though the non-vague agent was seen as more direct and authoritative, responses to other attributes and performance were much more varied. Findings suggest there is potential for vague language human-agent interaction, though there are several obstacles in agent design to overcome first

Comparative analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB 3 GEO tools for the forecast of the fluxes of high-energy electrons at GEO

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field Bz observations at L1.The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast

Play and Developmental Outcomes in Infant Siblings of Children with Autism

We observed infant siblings of children with autism later diagnosed with ASD (ASD siblings; n = 17), infant siblings of children with autism with and without other delays (Other Delays and No Delays siblings; n = 12 and n = 19, respectively) and typically developing controls (TD controls; n = 19) during a free-play task at 18 months of age. Functional, symbolic, and repeated play actions were coded. ASD siblings showed fewer functional and more non-functional repeated play behaviors than TD controls. Other Delays and No Delays siblings showed more non-functional repeated play than TD controls. Group differences disappeared with the inclusion of verbal mental age. Play as an early indicator of autism and its relationship to the broader autism phenotype is discussed

Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Short- duration (1-3 h) rainfall extremes can cause serious damage to societies through rapidly developing (flash) flooding and are determined by complex, multifaceted processes that are altering as Earth's climate warms. In this Review, we examine evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for the intensification of these rainfall extremes, the drivers and the impact on flash flooding. Both short- duration and long- duration (\textgreater1 day) rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture (~7% K-1), while in some regions, increases in short- duration extreme rainfall intensities are stronger than expected from moisture increases alone. These stronger local increases are related to feedbacks in convective clouds, but their exact role is uncertain because of the very small scales involved. Future extreme rainfall intensification is also modulated by changes to temperature stratification and large- scale atmospheric circulation. The latter remains a major source of uncertainty. Intensification of short- duration extremes has likely increased the incidence of flash flooding at local scales and this can further compound with an increase in storm spatial footprint to considerably increase total event rainfall. These findings call for urgent climate change adaptation measures to manage increasing flood risks