Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Treatment with CPAP in Elderly Patients with Obstructive Sleep Apnoea

The population pyramid is changing as a result of the ever-increasing life expectancy, which makes it crucial to acquire an in-depth understanding of the diseases that most often affect the elderly. Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) affects 15%–20% of the population aged over 65 years. Despite this prevalence, there have been very few specific studies on the management of OSA in this age group, even though over 60% of the patients aged over 65-70 years who attend sleep units with suspicion of OSA receive treatment with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), on the basis of an extrapolation of the positive results achieved by CPAP in clinical trials involving middle-aged males. However, the latter’s form of presentation, evolution and, probably, prognosis comparing with OSA are not the same as those of elderly patients. Recent clinical trials performed on an exclusive series of elderly patients have shed light on the possible role of CPAP treatment in elderly patients with OSA, but there are still many questions that need to be answered. The physiological increase in the number of sleep-related disorders with the passing of years, and the lack of validated diagnostic and therapeutic tools for this age group are probably the greatest obstacles to define, diagnose and treat OSA in the elderly

Continuous positive airway pressure adherence declines with age in elderly obstructive sleep apnoea patients

Peer reviewe

Nature based solutions for sediment starved deltas: the Ebro case in the Spanish Mediterranean coast

Deltas in river regulated basins have become coastal vulnerability hotspots, for which traditional coastal engineering does not provide acceptable risk reductions. This is well illustrated by the Ebro delta (W Mediterranean) whose vulnerability is projected to increase under future climates. We review nearshore transport in an apparently pristine coast under a sedimentary deficit due to river regulation. Next we present the monitoring and maintenance needed for a successful river connectivity that enhances liquid/solid discharges into the delta. In the following section we address NbS coastal sand nourishments, based on geo- and bio-diversity as NbS blocks to achieve a resilient coastal restoration. In the final section we present a Coastal Restoration platform concept, based on a living lab and aiming to a coastal restoration contract for long term commitment to NbS.All authors acknowledge the REST-COAST EU project, that receives funding from the EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, under Grant Agreement number 101037097.Postprint (author's final draft

Gastrointestinal symptoms and complications in patients hospitalized due to COVID-19, an international multicentre prospective cohort study (TIVURON project).

Retrospective studies suggest that coronavirus disease (COVID-19) commonly involves gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms and complications. Our aim was to prospectively evaluate GI manifestations in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. This international multicentre prospective cohort study recruited COVID-19 patients hospitalized at 31 centres in Spain, Mexico, Chile, and Poland, between May and September 2020. Patients were followed-up until 15 days post-discharge and completed comprehensive questionnaires assessing GI symptoms and complications. A descriptive analysis as well as a bivariate and multivariate analysis were performer using binary logistic regression. p Eight hundred twenty-nine patients were enrolled; 129 (15.6%) had severe COVID-19, 113 (13.7%) required ICU admission, and 43 (5.2%) died. Upon admission, the most prevalent GI symptoms were anorexia (n=413; 49.8%), diarrhoea (n=327; 39.4%), nausea/vomiting (n=227; 27.4%), and abdominal pain (n=172; 20.7%), which were mild/moderate throughout the disease and resolved during follow-up. One-third of patients exhibited liver injury. Non-severe COVID-19 was associated with ≥2 GI symptoms upon admission (OR 0.679; 95% CI 0.464-0.995; p=0.046) or diarrhoea during hospitalization (OR 0.531; 95% CI 0.328-0.860; p=0.009). Multivariate analysis revealed that worse hospital outcomes were not independently associated with liver injury or GI symptoms. GI symptoms were more common than previously documented, and were mild, rapidly resolved, and not independently associated with COVID-19 severity. Liver injury was a frequent complication in hospitalized patients not independently associated with COVID-19 severity

Jornadas Nacionales de Robótica y Bioingeniería 2023: Libro de actas

Las Jornadas de Robótica y Bioingeniería de 2023 tienen lugar en la Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería Industrial de la Universidad Politécnica de IVIadrid, entre los días 14 y 16 de junio de 2023. En este evento propiciado por el Comité Español de Automática (CEA) tiene lugar la celebración conjunta de las XII Jornadas Nacionales de Robótica y el XIV Simposio CEA de Bioingeniería. Las Jornadas Nacionales de Robótica es un evento promovido por el Grupo Temático de Robótica (GTRob) de CEA para dar visibilidad y mostrar las actividades desarrolladas en el ámbito de la investigación y transferencia tecnológica en robótica. Asimismo, el propósito de Simposio de Bioingeniería, que cumple ahora su decimocuarta dicción, es el de proporcionar un espacio de encuentro entre investigadores, desabolladores, personal clínico, alumnos, industriales, profesionales en general e incluso usuarios que realicen su actividad en el ámbito de la bioingeniería. Estos eventos se han celebrado de forma conjunta en la anualidad 2023. Esto ha permitido aunar y congregar un elevado número de participantes tanto de la temática robótica como de bioingeniería (investigadores, profesores, desabolladores y profesionales en general), que ha posibilitado establecer puntos de encuentro, sinergias y colaboraciones entre ambos. El programa de las jornadas aúna comunicaciones científicas de los últimos resultados de investigación obtenidos, por los grupos a nivel español más representativos dentro de la temática de robótica y bioingeniería, así como mesas redondas y conferencias en las que se debatirán los temas de mayor interés en la actualidad. En relación con las comunicaciones científicas presentadas al evento, se ha recibido un total de 46 ponencias, lo que sin duda alguna refleja el alto interés de la comunidad científica en las Jornadas de Robótica y Bioingeniería. Estos trabajos serán expuestos y presentados a lo largo de un total de 10 sesiones, distribuidas durante los diferentes días de las Jornadas. Las temáticas de los trabajos cubren los principales retos científicos relacionados con la robótica y la bioingeniería: robótica aérea, submarina, terrestre, percepción del entorno, manipulación, robótica social, robótica médica, teleoperación, procesamiento de señales biológicos, neurorehabilitación etc. Confiamos, y estamos seguros de ello, que el desarrollo de las jornadas sea completamente productivo no solo para los participantes en las Jornadas que podrán establecer nuevos lazos y relaciones fructíferas entre los diferentes grupos, sino también aquellos investigadores que no hayan podido asistir. Este documento que integra y recoge todas las comunicaciones científicas permitirá un análisis más detallado de cada una de las mismas

Genomic Designing for Climate-Smart Tomato

Tomato is the first vegetable consumed in the world. It is grown in very different conditions and areas, mainly in field for processing tomatoes while fresh-market tomatoes are often produced in greenhouses. Tomato faces many environmental stresses, both biotic and abiotic. Today many new genomic resources are available allowing an acceleration of the genetic progress. In this chapter, we will first present the main challenges to breed climate-smart tomatoes. The breeding objectives relative to productivity, fruit quality, and adaptation to environmental stresses will be presented with a special focus on how climate change is impacting these objectives. In the second part, the genetic and genomic resources available will be presented. Then, traditional and molecular breeding techniques will be discussed. A special focus will then be presented on ecophysiological modeling, which could constitute an important strategy to define new ideotypes adapted to breeding objectives. Finally, we will illustrate how new biotechnological tools are implemented and could be used to breed climate-smart tomatoes

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic