Construction de projections hydro-climatiques et leurs incertitudes associées à partir de simulations issues de modèles régionaux de climat : Application à la gestion des eaux des réservoirs hydroélectriques du Québec

Construction of hydro-climatic projections and first-order estimation of their associated uncertainties from Regional Climate Model simulations : Application to water management of hydropower reservoirs in Quebec. This paper outlines the steps followed to construct hydro-climatic projections of basin-scale runoff and their associated uncertainties over the Québec/ Labrador peninsula. First, we show that the physically-based Canadian RCM (Regional Climate Model) is able to reproduce basin-scale annual runoff within observational errors. The robustness of the CRCM at simulating annual runoff at the basin scale is studied through an analysis of the model’s intrinsic internal noise (e. g., internal variability related to the non-deterministic nature of the climate system), which we find to be small (with respect to observational errors and interannual variability of observed runoff). The CRCM’s main advantage is that it is constructed with balanced land and atmosphere water and energy budgets, and includes feedbacks between the surface and the atmosphere ; providing variables that are all internally consistent. However, due to weaknesses in the representation of snow and land-surface processes in CLASS 2.7, the simulated intra-annual runoff is not adequately reproduced. Sensitivity experiments show that domain size has an important effect on simulated annual runoff, and that surface scheme and driving reanalyses have less influence but still remain significant. These findings imply that not only should the experimental configuration of a simulation be carefully defined according to the area of interest, but also that one must consider results from more than just a single RCM simulation (to account for the model’s internal variability). Following these basic steps, more trustworthy climate change data can be provided to water resource managers. Through the provision of an ensemble of regional climate projections, it is then possible to evaluate the climate change signal and the associated level of confidence.Cet article donne un aperçu des étapes suivies pour construire des projections hydro-climatiques d’écoulement à l’échelle des bassins versants sur la péninsule Québec/ Labrador, avec les incertitudes qui y sont associées. Dans un premier temps, nous montrons que le Modèle régional canadien du climat (MRCC) est capable de reproduire l’écoulement annuel aux bassins à l’intérieur des erreurs d’observation. L’habileté du MRCC à simuler l’écoulement annuel à l’échelle des bassins est étudiée à travers l’analyse du bruit interne intrinsèque au modèle (i. e., variabilité interne reliée à la nature non déterministe du système climatique), que nous trouvons petit (par rapport aux erreurs d’observation et à la variabilité inter-annuelle de l’écoulement observé). L’avantage principal du MRCC réside dans sa base physique car il respecte des bilans équilibrés d’eau et d’énergie, il inclut les rétroactions entre la surface et l’atmosphère, générant des variables qui sont physiquement cohérentes entre elles. Toutefois, quelques faiblesses dans la représentation des processus de neige et du sol de CLASS 2.7 font en sorte que l’écoulement intra-annuel simulé n’est pas adéquat. Nos expériences de sensibilité montrent que la dimension du domaine a un effet important sur l’écoulement annuel simulé. Le schéma de surface et les réanalyses qui pilotent le MRCC ont moins d’influence mais demeurent significatifs. Ces résultats impliquent qu’il faudrait non seulement définir soigneusement la configuration expérimentale d’une simulation selon la région d’intérêt mais également considérer plus d’une simulation MRC (pour tenir compte de la variabilité interne du modèle). En suivant ces étapes, les gestionnaires des réservoirs hydro-électriques peuvent obtenir des valeurs de changement climatique plus fiables. En fournissant un ensemble de projections climatiques régionales, il est alors possible d’évaluer le signal du changement climatique ainsi que le niveau de confiance qui y est associé.Frigon Anne, Slivitzky Michel, Caya Daniel, Roy René. Construction de projections hydro-climatiques et leurs incertitudes associées à partir de simulations issues de modèles régionaux de climat : Application à la gestion des eaux des réservoirs hydroélectriques du Québec. In: Variations climatiques et hydrologie. Le climat, ses variations séculaires et ses changements pronostiqués : quel impact sur l'hydrologie (ressources en eau et évènements rares, étiages - crues). 29èmes Journées de l'Hydraulique. Congrès de la Société Hydrotechnique de France. Lyon, 27-28 mars 2007. 2007

Evaluation of probable maximum snow accumulation: Development of a methodology for climate change studies

Probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA) is one of the key variables used to estimate the spring probable maximum flood (PMF). A robust methodology for evaluating the PMSA is imperative so the ensuing spring PMF is a reasonable estimation. This is of particular importance in times of climate change (CC) since it is known that solid precipitation in Nordic landscapes will in all likelihood change over the next century. In this paper, a PMSA methodology based on simulated data from regional climate models is developed. Moisture maximization represents the core concept of the proposed methodology; precipitable water being the key variable. Results of stationarity tests indicate that CC will affect the monthly maximum precipitable water and, thus, the ensuing ratio to maximize important snowfall events. Therefore, a non-stationary approach is used to describe the monthly maximum precipitable water. Outputs from three simulations produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model were used to give first estimates of potential PMSA changes for southern Quebec, Canada. A sensitivity analysis of the computed PMSA was performed with respect to the number of time-steps used (so-called snowstorm duration) and the threshold for a snowstorm to be maximized or not. The developed methodology is robust and a powerful tool to estimate the relative change of the PMSA. Absolute results are in the same order of magnitude as those obtained with the traditional method and observed data; but are also found to depend strongly on the climate projection used and show spatial variability

Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada

Climate change (CC) needs to be accounted for in the estimation of probable maximum floods (PMFs). However, there does not exist a unique way to estimate PMFs and, furthermore the challenge in estimating them is that they should neither be underestimated for safety reasons nor overestimated for economical ones. By estimating PMFs without accounting for CC, the risk of underestimation could be high for Quebec, Canada, since future climate simulations indicate that in all likelihood extreme precipitation events will intensify. In this paper, simulation outputs from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) are used to develop a methodology to estimate probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) while accounting for changing climate conditions for the southern region of the Province of Quebec, Canada. The Kénogami and Yamaska watersheds are herein of particular interest, since dam failures could lead to major downstream impacts. Precipitable water (w) represents one of the key variables in the estimation process of PMPs. Results of stationary tests indicate that CC will not only affect precipitation and temperature but also the monthly maximum precipitable water, wmax, and the ensuing maximization ratio used for the estimation of PMPs. An up-to-date computational method is developed to maximize w using a non-stationary frequency analysis, and then calculate the maximization ratios. The ratios estimated this way are deemed reliable since they rarely exceed threshold values set for Quebec, and, therefore, provide consistent PMP estimates. The results show an overall significant increase of the PMPs throughout the current century compared to the recent past

Voix singulières : Réflexion sur l'art actuel des femmes

This survey of La Centrale's 1996-1997 season is also a collection of essays about the practices, modes of expression, and social impact of women artists, as set against feminist discourse and the creation of a new feminine imaginary. Works in various media by 25 artists are presented (video and performance dominate). Ten authors consider themes such as desire, humour and irony, identity, women's breasts, aging, and sound hallucination. Includes a poem by Desautels. Texts published in their original French or English version with French abstracts. Brief biographical notes on contributors and artists. 18 bibl. ref

Probable maximum flood in a changing climate: An overview for Canadian basins

Study Region: In Canada, dams which represent a high risk to human loss of life, along with important environmental and financial losses in case of failure, have to accommodate the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). Five Canadian basins with different physiographic characteristics and geographic locations, and where the PMF is a relevant metric have been selected: Nelson, Mattagami, Kénogami, Saguenay and Manic-5. Study Focus: One of the main drivers of the PMF is the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Traditionally, the computation of the PMP relies on moisture maximization of high efficiency observed storms without consideration for climate change. The current study attempts to develop a novel approach based on traditional methods to take into account the non-stationarity of the climate using an ensemble of 14 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. PMPs, the 100-year snowpack and resulting PMF changes were computed between the 1971-2000 and 2041-2070 periods. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: The study reveals an overall increase in future spring PMP with the exception of the most northern basin Nelson. It showed a projected increase of the 100-year snowpack for the two northernmost basins, Nelson (8%) and Manic-5 (3%), and a decrease for the three more southern basins, Mattagami (-1%), Saguenay (-5%) and Kénogami (-9%). The future spring PMF is projected to increase with median values between -1.5% and 20%

WCRP COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX): a diagnostic MIP for CMIP6

The COordinated Regional Downscaling EXper- iment (CORDEX) is a diagnostic model intercomparison project (MIP) in CMIP6. CORDEX builds on a foundation of previous downscaling intercomparison projects to provide a common framework for downscaling activities around the world. The CORDEX Regional Challenges provide a fo- cus for downscaling research and a basis for making use of CMIP6 global climate model (GCM) output to produce downscaled projected changes in regional climates and as- sess sources of uncertainties in the projections, all of which can potentially be distilled into climate change information for vulnerability, impacts and adaptation studies. CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies advance regional downscaling by tar- geting one or more of the CORDEX Regional Challenges. A CORDEX-CORE framework is planned that will produce a baseline set of homogeneous high-resolution, downscaled projections for regions worldwide. In CMIP6, CORDEX coordinates with ScenarioMIP and is structured to allow cross comparisons with HighResMIP and interaction with the CMIP6 VIACS Advisory Board.This article is published as Gutowski Jr, William J., Filippo Giorgi, Bertrand Timbal, Anne Frigon, Daniela Jacob, Hyun-Suk Kang, Krishnan Raghavan et al. "WCRP coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX): a diagnostic MIP for CMIP6." Geoscientific Model Development 9, no. 11 (2016): 4087-4095. doi: 10.5194/gmd-9-4087-2016. Posted with permission.</p

Femmes et justice pénale

Ensemble articulé d'une trentaine d'études sur les femmes et la justice, cet ouvrage constitue la première synthèse sur ce sujet peu connu qui s'intercale entre le domaine du droit en amont, et celui de la peine – et notamment de la prison – en aval. Il se concentre sur l'histoire contemporaine de quelques pays occidentaux, particulièrement la France et le Canada. Femmes et justice : ce thème dessine d'abord les contours d'une histoire spécifique, celle des illégalismes féminins (vol domestique, infanticide, avortement, prostitution) du XIXe et du début du XXe siècle... Le fonctionnement judiciaire, marqué par la différenciation des sexes, est aussi mis en lumière. Cette asymétrie qui produit tantôt de l'indulgence, tantôt un surcroit de sévérité à rencontre des femmes jugées s'explique en partie par les représentations collectives qui érigent en modèle la femme-mère, douce et soumise. Toute déviance paraît dès lors monstrueuse : la criminelle occupe une place de choix dans l'imaginaire misogyne. Autre facette, la femme victime des violences masculines, privée du droit de se défendre, suspectée dans ses dires. Un long combat sera nécessaire pour que sa parole soit reconnue. La féminisation toute récente des métiers de justice n'est pas étrangère à cette révolution impulsée par les féministes.Cet ouvrage reprend, en les organisant et en leur adjoignant des introductions thématiques, des communications entendues lors du colloque international Justice et diffèrences des sexes, XIXe-XXe siècles. Ce colloque, qui s'est tenu à Angers du 17 au 19 mai 2001, a été organisé par l'HIRES (Centre d'histoire des régulations sociales, EA 1710) et par le GEHRICO (Université de Poitiers). Que les institutions qui en ont permis la réalisation et la publication en soient remerciées ici : – le ministère de l'Éducation nationale et de la Recherche – le secrétariat d'État aux Droits des femmes et à  l'Égalité professionnelle – le Conseil général du Maine-et-Loire – la Ville d'Angers – le Programme angevin en sciences humaines, 2H2S – le CERPECA, Centre d'études canadiennes de l'université d'Angers. Nous remercions tout particulièrement Madame Claude Monteil pour la préparation du manuscrit