The Epidemiology of HIV-1 Transmitted Drug Resistance

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was first discovered in 1983. In 2009, it was estimated that 33.3 (31.4 -35.3) million individuals are infected with HIV worldwide. In that year 1.8 (1.6-2.1) million people died from HIV. Although the virus continues to spread, the number of new infections has fallen from an estimated 3.2 (3.0 -3.5) million in 1997 to 2.6 (2.3 – 2.8) million in 2009. There are several explanations for this decrease. First, the use of antiretrovirals has slowed down the epidemic by suppressing viral replication and thereby the HIV RNA load [2]. This RNA load is a key factor in determining transmissibility of HIV. Second, sexual risk behaviour has decreased in most countries. Third, HIV prevalence follows an ‘S’ curve, like any infectious disease where it start slowly and gradually. In the final phase of the epidemic, people are either no longer infectious (due to effective treatment) or deaths outnumber new cases, so that the total number alive and infected passes its peak and begin to decline or reach a plateau. The majority of new HIV infections continue to occur in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, an estimated 1.8 (1.6 -2.0) million people were newly infected in 2009 and 22.5 million (20.9 -24.2) people were living with HIV in this region (figure 1). In Europe, the HIV-1 epidemic is much smaller, with an estimated 130,000 (110,000-160,000) newly infected in Western and Central Europe in 2009. This results in 820,000 (720,000-910,000) individuals living with HIV-1 and a prevalence of 0.2% in this region

Increase in transmitted resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors among newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections in Europe

Background: One out of ten newly diagnosed patients in Europe was infected with a virus carrying a drug resistant mutation. We analysed the patterns over time for transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) using data from the European Spread program.Methods: Clinical, epidemiological and virological data from 4317 patients newly diagnosed with HIV-1 infection between 2002 and 2007 were analysed. Patients were enrolled using a pre-defined sampling strategy.Results: The overall prevalence of TDRM in this period was 8.9% (95% CI: 8.1-9.8). Interestingly, significant changes over time in TDRM caused by the different drug classes were found. Whereas nucleoside resistance mutations remained constant at 5%, a significant decline in protease inhibitors resistance mutations was observed, from 3.9% in 2002 to 1.6% in 2007 (p = 0.001). In contrast, resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) doubled from 2.0% in 2002 to 4.1% in 2007 (p = 0.004) with 58% of viral strains carrying a K103N mutation. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these temporal changes could not be explained by large clusters of TDRM.Conclusion: During the years 2002 to 2007 transmitted resistance to NNRTI has doubled to 4% in Europe. The frequent use of NNRTI in first-line regimens and the clinical impact of NNRTI mutations warrants continued monitoring

Patterns of transmitted HIV drug resistance in Europe vary by risk group

Background: In Europe, a continuous programme (SPREAD) has been in place for ten years to study transmission of drug resistant HIV. We analysed time trends of transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) in relation to the risk behaviour reported. Methods: HIV-1 patients newly diagnosed in 27 countries from 2002 through 2007 were included. Inclusion was representative for risk group and geographical distribution in the participating countries in Europe. Trends over time were calculated by logistic regression. Results: From the 4317 patients included, the majority was men-having-sex-with-men -MSM (2084, 48%), followed by heterosexuals (1501, 35%) and injection drug users (IDU) (355, 8%). MSM were more often from Western Europe origin, infected with subtype B virus, and recently infected (<1 year) (p<0.001). The prevalence of TDRM was highest in MSM (prevalence of 11.1%), followed by heterosexuals (6.6%) and IDU (5.1%, p<0.001). TDRM was predominantly ascribed to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) with a prevalence of 6.6% in MSM, 3.3% in heterosexuals and 2.0% in IDU (p = 0.001). A significant increase in resistance to non- nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and a decrease in resistance to protease inhibitors was observed in MSM (p = 0.008 and p = 0.006, respectively), but not in heterosexual patients (p = 0.68 and p = 0.14, respectively). Conclusions: MSM showed to have significantly higher TDRM prevalence compared to heterosexuals and IDU. The increasing NNRTI resistance in MSM is likely to negatively influence the therapy response of first-line therapy, as most include NNRTI drugs

Increase in transmitted resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors among newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections in Europe

Matti A Ristola on SPREAD Programme -työryhmän jäsen.Peer reviewe

Mutation V111I in HIV-2 reverse transcriptase increases the fitness of the nucleoside analogue-resistant K65R and Q151M viruses

Infection with HIV-2 can ultimately lead to AIDS, although disease progression is much slower than with HIV-1. HIV-2 patients are mostly treated with a combination of nucleoside reverse transcriptase (RT) inhibitors (NRTIs) and protease inhibitors designed for HIV-1. Many studies have described the development of HIV-1 resistance to NRTIs and identified mutations in the polymerase domain of RT. Recent studies have shown that mutations in the connection and RNase H dom

Inferring epidemiological parameters from phylogenetic information for the HIV-1 epidemic among MSM

The HIV-1 epidemic in Europe is primarily sustained by a dynamic topology of sexual interactions among MSM who have individual immune systems and behavior. This epidemiological process shapes the phylogeny of the virus population. Both fields of epidemic modeling and phylogenetics have a long history, however it remains difficult to use phylogenetic data to infer epidemiological parameters such as the structure of the sexual network and the per-act infectiousness. This is because phylogenetic data is necessarily incomplete and ambiguous. Here we show that the cluster-size distribution indeed contains information about epidemiological parameters using detailed numberical experiments. We simulate the HIV epidemic among MSM many times using the Monte Carlo method with all parameter values and their ranges taken from literature. For each simulation and the corresponding set of parameter values we calculate the likelihood of reproducing an observed cluster-size distribution. The result is an estimated likelihood distribution of all parameters from the phylogenetic data, in particular the structure of the sexual network, the per-act infectiousness, and the risk behavior reduction upon diagnosis. These likelihood distributions encode the knowledge provided by the observed cluster-size distrbution, which we quantify using information theory. Our work suggests that the growing body of genetic data of patients can be exploited to understand the underlying epidemiological process