A comparison of data-driven and model-based approaches to quantifying railway risk

This paper presents some of the results of a project sponsored by the UK Railway Safety and Standards Board (RSSB). An earlier statistical evaluation of a previous version of the RSSB Safety Risk Model (SRM), a combined Fault/Event Tree, conducted by Prof Andrew Evans had concluded that the model was unduly pessimistic. We have constructed a hypothesis test based on the relative likelihood techniques using the most recent version of the SRM as the null hypothesis. The results support the SRM being consistent with the historical data. Two significant differences between these two studies are the statistical methods employed to support the analysis and the removal of certain significant conservative assumptions from updating the versions of the SRM. The paper discusses the demands that different model purposes place on these models, and explores the question of whether or not it is meaningful to compare their outputs. The use of expected fatalities as a metric for expressing risk in both models is questioned because of the heavy-tailed form of the distribution for fatality numbers given a fatal accident

Estimating solar radiation for plant simulation models

Five algorithms producing daily solar radiation surrogates using daily temperatures and rainfall were evaluated using measured solar radiation data for seven U.S. locations. The algorithms were compared both in terms of accuracy of daily solar radiation estimates and terms of response when used in a plant growth simulation model (CERES-wheat). Requirements for accuracy of solar radiation for plant growth simulation models are discussed. One algorithm is recommended as being best suited for use in these models when neither measured nor satellite estimated solar radiation values are available

Building application of solar energy. Study no. 4: Scenarios for the utilization of solar energy in southern California buildings, change 1

Plausible future market scenarios for solar heating and cooling systems into buildings in the area served by the Southern California Edison Company. A range of plausible estimates for the number of solar systems which might be installed and the electrical energy which might be displaced by energy from these systems are provided. The effect on peak electrical load was not explicitly calculated but preliminary conclusions concerning peak load can be inferred from the estimates presented. Two markets are investigated: the single family market and the large power commercial market

The development of a multi-criteria decision analysis aid to help with contraceptive choices: My Contraception Tool.

My Contraception Tool (MCT) applies the principles of multi-criteria decision analysis to the choice of contraceptive method. Its purpose is to make the decision-making process transparent to the user and to suggest a method to them based on their own preferences. The contraceptive option that emerges as optimal from the analysis takes account of the probability of a range of outcomes and the relative weight ascribed to them by the user. The development of MCT was a collaborative project between London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Brook, FPA and Maldaba Ltd. MCT is available online via the Brook and FPA websites. In this article we describe MCT's development and how it works. Further work is needed to assess the impact it has on decision quality and contraceptive behaviour

On the dominance of J(P)=0(+) ground states in even-even nuclei from random two-body interactions

Recent calculations using random two-body interactions showed a preponderance of J(P)=0(+) ground states, despite the fact that there is no strong pairing character in the force. We carry out an analysis of a system of identical particles occupying orbits with j=1/2, 3/2 and 5/2 and discuss some general features of the spectra derived from random two-body interactions. We show that for random two-body interactions that are not time-reversal invariant the dominance of 0(+) states in this case is more pronounced, indicating that time-reversal invariance cannot be the origin of the 0(+) dominance.Comment: 8 pages, 3 tables and 3 figures. Phys. Rev. C, in pres

Imagination in Scientific Practice

What is the role of the imagination in scientific practice? Here I focus on the nature and role of invitations to imagine in certain scientific texts as represented by the example of Einstein’s Special Relativity paper from 1905. Drawing on related discussions in aesthetics, I argue, on the one hand, that this role cannot be simply subsumed under ‘supposition’ but that, on the other, concerns about the impact of genre and symbolism can be dealt with, and hence present no obstacle to regarding imagination as appropriately belief-like. By applying the framework of ‘semi- propositional representations’ and ‘quasi-truth’ to this case I thereby offer a new unitary framework for understanding the epistemology of scientific imagination

Duality Between the Weak and Strong Interaction Limits for Randomly Interacting Fermions

We establish the existence of a duality transformation for generic models of interacting fermions with two-body interactions. The eigenstates at weak and strong interaction U possess similar statistical properties when expressed in the U=0 and U=infinity eigenstates bases respectively. This implies the existence of a duality point U_d where the eigenstates have the same spreading in both bases. U_d is surrounded by an interval of finite width which is characterized by a non Lorentzian spreading of the strength function in both bases. Scaling arguments predict the survival of this intermediate regime as the number of particles is increased.Comment: RevTex4, 4 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication at Phys. Rev. Let

DEveloping a Complex Intervention for DEteriorating Patients using Theoretical Modelling (DECIDE study): study protocol

AIM: To develop a theory-based complex intervention (targeting nursing staff), to enhance enablers and overcome barriers to enacting expected behaviour when monitoring patients and responding to abnormal vital signs that signal deterioration. DESIGN: A mixed method design including structured observations on hospital wards, field notes, brief, un-recorded interviews and semi-structured interviews to inform the development of an intervention to enhance practice. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews will be conducted with nursing staff using a topic guide informed by the Theoretical Domains Framework. Semi-structured interviews will be transcribed verbatim and coded deductively into the 14 Theoretical Domains Framework domains and then inductively into 'belief statements'. Priority domains will be identified and mapped to appropriate behaviour change techniques. Intervention content and mode of delivery (how behaviour change techniques are operationalised) will be developed using nominal groups, during which participants (clinicians) will rank behaviour change techniques /mode of delivery combinations according to acceptability and feasibility. Findings will be synthesised to develop an intervention manual. DISCUSSION: Despite being a priority for clinicians, researchers and policymakers for two decades, 'sub-optimal care' of the deteriorating ward patient persists. Existing interventions have been largely educational (i.e., targeting assumed knowledge deficits) with limited evidence that they change staff behaviour. Staff behaviour when monitoring and responding to abnormal vital signs is likely influenced by a range of mediators that includes barriers and enablers. IMPACT: Systematically applying theory and evidence-based methods, will result in the specification of an intervention which is more likely to result in behaviour change and can be tested empirically in future research. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved