Political budget cycles in the Eurozone

This paper provides evidences of the electoral influence on fiscal policy in the Eurozone countries. Using data from EA19 in 1995-2017 and a time dummy to identify election years, it was applied a Fixed Effects model to assess its impact on fiscal instruments. According to the results, the elections seem to increase both compensations to employees and other current expenditure. In addition, the politically motivated policies seem to differ from low and highly indebted countries. Giving the electoral impact on the compensation to employees, the pro-cyclical tax strategy, and the absence of a Ricardian fiscal regime, its perceived less prudent policies from the most indebted countries. Furthermore, after countries joined the EMU, policy makers began to increase tax burden facing interest rate shocks, since they lose the ability to manipulate monetary policy.N/

Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone: an SVAR analysis

We compute the value of fiscal multipliers (for government primary expenditure, Income and wealth taxes and for Production and import taxes) in the Eurozone countries since the creation of the currency union (2000Q1-2016Q4), in order to understand how the values can vary according to the public debt level, the pace of economic growth, and the output gap. Imposing quarterly fiscal shocks, the results showed that government expenditure had a positive effect on output, with an annual accumulated multiplier of 0.44, whereas tax multipliers presented negative signs: the Income and wealth and the Production and import taxes stood at −0.11 and −0.55, respectively. Furthermore, the spending multiplier showed a higher value for countries with lower levels of public debt, during recessions, and in countries with negative output gaps. On the other hand, tax shocks seemed to be recessive in highly indebted countries and those facing positive output gaps.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone : a SVAR analysis

We compute the value of fiscal multipliers (for government primary expenditure, Income and wealth taxes and for Production and import ones) in the Eurozone countries since the creation of the currency union (2001Q1-2016Q4), and to understand how the values may vary according to the public debt level, the rhythm of economic growth and the output gap. Imposing quarterly fiscal shocks in the period 2000-2016, the results shown that the government expenditure had a positive effect on output, with an annual accumulated multiplier of 0.64 while the tax multipliers presented negative signs - the Income and wealth and the Production and import taxes stood at -0.10 and -0.32, respectively. Furthermore, the multipliers shown higher values for countries with higher levels of public debt (to small levels, the expenditure multiplier is close to zero and the tax multipliers seem to have positive signs), during recessions, and in countries with positive output gaps.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Fiscal episodes in the economic and monetary union: Elasticities and non-Keynesian effects

We estimate short- and long-run elasticities of private consumption for fiscal instruments, using a fixed-effects model for the 19 Euro area countries during the period of 1960–2017, to assess how fiscal elasticities vary during fiscal episodes. According to the results, positive ‘tax revenue’ elasticities indicate that consumers have Ricardian behaviour, whereby they perceive an increase in taxation to be a sign of future government spending. ‘social benefits’ appear to have a non-Keynesian effect on private consumption. In addition, using a narrative approach to identify fiscal consolidations, it is seen that private consumption continues to exhibit a non-Keynesian response to tax increases, both in the short and long-run, and ‘other expenditures’ have a recessive impact during ‘normal times’. Furthermore, ‘social benefits’ are more contractionary in consolidations than in both expansions and ‘normal times’. In addition, after the launch of the Economic and Monetary Union, expansionary fiscal consolidations became harder to observe, and ‘other expenditure’ and ‘investment’ lost their non-Keynesian role.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Sovereign yield spreads in the EMU : crisis and structural determinants

We use a panel of 11 EMU countries in the period 2000-2014 to assess the importance of political and economic determinants as explanatory factors in sovereign bond yield spreads. According to the results, there is evidence that those spread determinants gained importance after the beginning of the financial crisis. Following the crisis, the debt ratio, fiscal balance, expenditure on pension funds, the level of liquidity, GDP growth rate, and structural reforms have become relevant determinants of sovereign spreads, while fiscal rules have reduced spreads.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Fiscal episodes in the EMU : elasticities and non-keynesian effects

We estimate short- and long-run elasticities of private consumption for fiscal instruments, using a Fixed Effects model for the 19-euro area countries during the period of 1960-2017, to assess how fiscal elasticities vary during fiscal episodes. According to the results, positive “tax revenue” elasticities indicate that consumers have a Ricardian behaviour, whereby they perceive an increase in taxation to be a sign of future government spending. “Social benefits” appear to have a non-keynesian effect on private consumption. In addition, using a narrative approach to identify fiscal consolidations, it is seen that private consumption continues to exhibit a non-keynesian response to tax increases, both in the short and long-run, and “other expenditures” have a recessive impact during “normal times”. Furthermore, “social benefits” are more contractionary in consolidations than in both expansions and “normal times”. Additionally, after the launch of the EMU, expansionary fiscal consolidations became harder to observe, and “other expenditure” and “investment” lost their non-keynesian role.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Essays on fiscal policy in the Eurozone

Doutoramento em EconomiaA política orçamental, através da gestão das receitas e despesas públicas, é usualmente utilizada pelos decisores políticos para influenciar a atividade económica, nomeadamente através do controlo do rendimento disponível, de uma reafectação eficiente dos recursos existentes, do fornecimento de bens e serviços, bem como da correção de falhas de mercado. De acordo com o disposto na teoria Keynesiana, elaborada durante a Grande Recessão (década de 1930), os efeitos da política orçamental deverão variar de acordo com a fase do ciclo económico e dos instrumentos utilizados, sendo estes mais necessários e eficazes durante recessões. Contudo, em alguns episódios históricos, a evidência empírica parece contrariar as previsões teóricas efetuadas à luz da teoria Keynesiana, originando os comumente chamados efeitos não-Keynesianos da política orçamental. Por sua vez, a última Grande Recessão trouxe, uma vez mais, o debate relativo à eficácia da política orçamental para a literatura económica. Os elevados montantes de dívida pública acumulados na generalidade das economias europeias ocidentais comprometeram a sua sustentabilidade e restringiram decisões políticas, o que gerou repercussões tanto nos custos de financiamento soberano como no bem-estar social. Assim, diversos Estados Membros da Zona Euro foram forçados a implementar medidas mais restritivas de forma a conseguirem reduzir os seus desequilíbrios orçamentais, num cenário em que a política cambial se encontrava inacessível, e em que a taxa de inflação se apresentou especialmente baixa. Neste contexto, a presente tese debruça-se sobre o impacto macroeconómico da política orçamental nos Estados Membros da UEM, averiguando como este poderá variar de acordo com os instrumentos utilizados e com fatores intrínsecos de cada país, tendo em atenção tópicos relevantes que ainda não estão suficientemente explorados na literatura. É ainda analisado se, e como, a política orçamental poderá ser manipulada de acordo com motivações eleitoralistas, nomeadamente se as evidências empíricas dão suporte às previsões do modelo de “despesa visível” de Rogoff, ou ao modelo de despesa pública direcionada. Por outras palavras, se um hipotético aumento de despesa estará associado a mais despesas correntes, ou se existirão investimentos direcionados para satisfazer as pretensões de grupos ou regiões específicas. Num primeiro momento, foram calculados os valores dos multiplicadores orçamentais desde a criação da União Monetária. De acordo com os resultados obtidos, a despesa pública nos Estados Membros tem um impacto positivo sobre a atividade económica (multiplicador de 0,44), sendo o impacto maior perante menores níveis de endividamento soberano, recessões económicas e fases negativas do ciclo económico (hiato do produto negativo). Por sua vez, a receita fiscal apresenta valores negativos, compreendidos entre -0,11 e -0,55, podendo, no entanto, revelar um impacto expansionista em países com menores níveis de dívida pública. Porém, nem sempre as políticas resultam nos resultados expectáveis. Foram estimadas elasticidades do consumo privado, face aos instrumentos orçamentais, durante o período de 1960-2017, de forma a aferir como as elasticidades variam perante episódios orçamentais (claras ações políticas, como expansões ou consolidações orçamentais). As evidências indicam que as transferências sociais poderão estar na origem dos efeitos não-Keynesianos da política orçamental, uma vez o consumo privado apresenta elasticidades negativas face às suas variações, durante períodos de consolidação. Ainda, os episódios não-Keynesianos tornaram-se menos prováveis de serem observados após os países integrarem a Zona Euro, dado que os gastos em investimentos e as outras despesas deixaram de apresentar uma relação negativa com o consumo privado. Foi também observado que as transferências sociais aparentam ter um impacto mais recessivo durante consolidações, que aquele observado perante expansões ou na ausência de episódios orçamentais. Utilizando uma abordagem alternativa para identificar consolidações orçamentais (abordagem narrativa), foi constatado que o consumo privado continua a exibir uma resposta não-Keynesiana a choques fiscais. Por último, a política orçamental aparenta ainda ser sensível a fatores políticos. Durante anos eleitorais, os decisores políticos tendem a aumentar as despesas correntes e a diminuir o peso dos impostos diretos. Porém, a estratégia orçamental tem sofrido algumas alterações ao longo dos anos. Desde a Grande Recessão, os Estados Membros aparentam ter perdido a sua capacidade para manipular a despesa pública com objetivos eleitoralistas, e começaram a diminuir os impostos indiretos. Também, após os Estados Membros aderirem à UEM, os decisores políticos começaram a aumentar a carga fiscal dos seus países face a choques na taxa de juro, uma vez que perderam a capacidade de recorrer à política monetária.The fiscal policy, through the management of public revenue and expenditure, is usually used by policy makers to influence economic activity, namely through the control of available income, the reallocation of resources, the supply of goods and services or the correction of market failures. Following the Keynesian perspective, designed during the Great Depression (1930’s), the effects of fiscal policy should vary over the stages of the business cycle and over fiscal instruments used, being more needed and effective during recessions. However, in some historical cases, the empirical evidence seems to contradict the theoretical predictions in the spirit of the Keynesian theory, giving rise to the so-called non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy. Therefore, the last Great Recession brought the effectiveness of fiscal policy back into debate in the economic literature. The high amounts of sovereign debt accumulated in the majority of the western European economies have been jeopardizing the sustainability of public debts, restricting political decisions, with repercussions on sovereign financing costs and on people’s welfare. Thus, several Eurozone’s Member States were forced to implement more restrictive policies in order to reduce their budgetary imbalances, in a scenario where the exchange rate policies are unavailable, and the inflation rate has been especially low. In this context, this thesis focuses on the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy on the Member States, assessing how it may vary according to the fiscal instruments used, and to country specific characteristics, taking into account some relevant topics not very explored yet in the literature. It is also analysed whether, and how, the fiscal policy can be manipulated according to electoral motivations, namely if evidence supports the predictions of the Rogoff’s “visibility expenditure” model or the Public expenditure targeting model, i.e., if the hypothetical expenditure increase will be associated with current expenditure, or if the capital expenditure will be used as a target to specific groups and locations. Firstly, it was computed the value of fiscal multipliers since the creation of the currency union. According to the results, public expenditure in Member States has a positive impact on economic growth (multiplier of 0.44), with a bigger impact on the less indebted countries, facing economic recessions and negative output gaps. In turn, tax revenue has negative values, between -0.11 and -0.55, but it can reveal an expansionary impact in countries with lower levels of public debt. However, policies do not always result in the expected results. Elasticities of private consumption to fiscal instruments were estimated during the period 1960-2017, to access how fiscal elasticities vary during fiscal episodes (clear policy actions, such as fiscal expansions or consolidations). Evidence indicates that social benefits may be a root of the non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy, since private consumption shows negative elasticities facing social benefits’ shocks, during periods of fiscal consolidation. In addition, non-Keynesian episodes became less likely to be observed after countries joined the Eurozone, given that investment spending and other expenditures have lost their non-Keynesian role. It was also perceived that social transfers seem to be more contractionary in consolidations than in both expansions and in the absence of fiscal episodes. Using an alternative approach to identify fiscal consolidations (narrative approach), it is seen that private consumption continues to exhibit a non-Keynesian response to tax increases. Lastly, fiscal policy in the Eurozone countries appears to be sensitive to political factors. During election years, the incumbent Governments seem to increase current spending and to decrease the direct tax burden. However, the fiscal strategy has changed over the years. Since the Great Recession, Member States have lost their ability to manipulate the Government spending for electoral purposes and began to decrease the indirect tax burden. Furthermore, after countries joined the EMU, policy makers began to increase tax burden facing interest rate shocks, since they have lost the ability to use monetary policy.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

External evaluations and innovative projects in education: who and what are they for?

Este estudio fue construido con el análisis de proyectos desarrollados en cinco redes de educación pública municipal en el estado de São Paulo, Brasil, que fueron otorgadas por el gobierno federal, a través del Laboratório de Experiências Inovadoras em Gestão Educacional como experiencias innovadoras. La investigación implica la participación de los coordinadores educativos de escuelas que fueron instigadas, a través de un cuestionario, para demostrar en las decisiones que se toman de la divulgación de los resultados de desempeño de los estudiantes en evaluaciones externas a gran escala. Está estructurado en la descripción de la encuesta y las características de federal Premio a la innovación en la gestión educativa y va buscando desplegar las representaciones de los coordinadores pedagógicos sobre el uso de los datos por los profesionales de la unidad educativa en su hacer pedagógico. En continuidad, discute los diversos efectos de las evaluaciones externas a gran escala y, por último, trae consideraciones acerca de la necesidad para continuar el debate sobre las relaciones entre las políticas públicas en educación que el uso de premios y el impacto de esa política en la mejora de la escuela públicaThis study was constructed from the analysis of projects developed in five municipal public education networks in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, that were awarded by the federal Government, through the Laboratório de Experiências Inovadoras em Gestão Educacional as innovative experiences. The investigation involves the participation of educational coordinators of educational units that were instigated, through a questionnaire, to demonstrate on the decisions that they take from the dissemination of the results of students ' performance in large-scale external evaluations. Is structured in the description of the survey and characteristics of federal award for innovation in educational management and goes searching for unfold the representations of the pedagogical coordinators on the use of the data by the professionals of the educational unit in its pedagogical do. In continuity, discusses the various effects of large-scale external evaluations and, finally, brings considerations need to continue the debate on relations between public policy on education that use of awards and the impact of that policy on the improvement of the public schoo

Reducing discomfort while measuring crown Á heel length in neonates

Abstract Aim: To assess the degree of discomfort caused by length measurement in neonates, performed with one or both lower limbs extended, on the first and second day after birth, with either one or both lower limbs extended. Methods: Healthy full-term neonates were systematically sampled during the months of February and March 2004. Crown Áheel length was measured, using a 1-mm precision neonatometer, at approximately 8 h and 32 h after birth, with one and both lower limbs extended. The Neonatal Facial Coding System was used to assess discomfort during measurements. Data were analysed by parametric and non-parametric tests as appropriate. Results: Whatever the measurement technique, discomfort scores are significantly higher during the length measurement than at baseline. Whenever length measurements are performed, discomfort scores are significantly higher when extending both lower limbs rather than one lower limb (p B/0.006). The measured length is greater with one lower limb extended; however, the difference decreases over time, being 0.19 cm (95% CI 0.1 Á0.3; p B/0.001) at approximately 32 h of age. No significant differences in length were found between measurements at approximately 8 or 32 h, regardless of the technique used. The best correlation between length measurements with one or both lower limbs extended was observed at approximately 32 h after birth (r 0/0.98). Conclusion: Measuring crown Áheel length is a distressful procedure for the neonate. Measurements with one lower limb extended result in less discomfort than when both lower limbs are extended, without decreasing the accuracy