Urbanisation lowers great tit Parus major breeding success at multiple spatial scales

While numerous studies have reported negative effects of urbanisation on birds, few have examined the role of urban scale in influencing breeding success. Furthermore, many studies have relied on qualitative rather than quantitative assessments of urbanisation. This study sought to address these issues by testing the effects of urbanisation, measured at two spatial scales, on the breeding success of great tits Parus major. A nested study design, incorporating over 400 nestboxes, was used in study sites across northern Belgium with a priori quantified degrees of urbanisation at both local and regional scales. All measured breeding parameters were found to vary at one or both spatial scales of urbanisation; in more urbanised areas great tits displayed advanced laying dates but lower breeding success compared to rural areas, with smaller clutch sizes, lower nestling masses and fewer fledglings per egg. Importantly, urbanisation effects were not limited to big cities as birds breeding in gardens or parks in small towns also had comparatively low success. We found that both regional- and local-scale urbanisation had consistent significant effects on laying date, clutch size and nestling mass, while the number of fledglings per egg was negatively influenced by local-scale urbanisation only. Results of this study therefore highlight the importance of utilising multiple spatial scales in analysing urbanisation effects, as well as the potential negative impact of local urbanisation on breeding success. This calls for further investigation into mechanisms driving urbanisation effects and how these may vary at different scales

Efficient Bayesian Learning Curve Extrapolation using Prior-Data Fitted Networks

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs. In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive. We describe the first application of prior-data fitted neural networks (PFNs) in this context. A PFN is a transformer, pre-trained on data generated from a prior, to perform approximate Bayesian inference in a single forward pass. We propose LC-PFN, a PFN trained to extrapolate 10 million artificial right-censored learning curves generated from a parametric prior proposed in prior art using MCMC. We demonstrate that LC-PFN can approximate the posterior predictive distribution more accurately than MCMC, while being over 10 000 times faster. We also show that the same LC-PFN achieves competitive performance extrapolating a total of 20 000 real learning curves from four learning curve benchmarks (LCBench, NAS-Bench-201, Taskset, and PD1) that stem from training a wide range of model architectures (MLPs, CNNs, RNNs, and Transformers) on 53 different datasets with varying input modalities (tabular, image, text, and protein data). Finally, we investigate its potential in the context of model selection and find that a simple LC-PFN based predictive early stopping criterion obtains 2 - 6x speed-ups on 45 of these datasets, at virtually no overhead

Simple individual-based models effectively represent Afrotropical forest bird movement in complex landscapes

Reliable estimates of dispersal rates between habitat patches (i.e. functional connectivity) are critical for predicting long-term effects of habitat fragmentation on population persistence. Connectivity measures are frequently derived from least cost path or graph-based approaches, despite the fact that these methods make biologically unrealistic assumptions. Individual-based models (IBMs) have been proposed as an alternative as they allow modelling movement behaviour in response to landscape resistance. However, IBMs typically require excessive data to be useful for management. Here, we test the extent to which an IBM requiring only an uncomplicated set of movement rules [the 'stochastic movement simulator' (SMS)] can predict animal movement behaviour in real-world landscapes. Movement behaviour of two forest birds, the Cabanis's greenbul Phyllastrephus cabanisi (a forest specialist) and the white-starred robin Pogonocichla stellata (a habitat generalist), across an Afrotropical matrix was simulated using SMS. Predictions from SMS were evaluated against a set of detailed movement paths collected by radiotracking homing individuals. SMS was capable of generating credible predictions of bird movement, although simulations were sensitive to the cost values and the movement rules specified. Model performance was generally highest when movement was simulated across low-contrasting cost surfaces and when virtual individuals were assigned low directional persistence and limited perceptual range. SMS better predicted movements of the habitat specialist than the habitat generalist, which highlights its potential to model functional connectivity when species movements are affected by the matrix. Synthesis and applications. Modelling the dispersal process with greater biological realism is likely to be critical for improving our predictive capability regarding functional connectivity and population persistence. For more realistic models to be widely applied, it is vital that their application is not overly complicated or data demanding. Here, we show that given relatively basic understanding of a species' dispersal ecology, the stochastic movement simulator represents a promising tool for estimating connectivity, which can help improve the design of functional ecological networks aimed at successful species conservation

Growth regulation in amphibian pathogenic chytrid fungi by the quorum sensing metabolite tryptophol

Amphibians face many threats leading to declines and extinctions, but the chytrid fungal skin pathogens Batrachochytriurn dendrobatidis (Bd) and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) have been identified as the causative factors leading to one of the greatest disease-driven losses of amphibian biodiversity worldwide. Infection may lead to different clinical outcomes, and lethal infections are commonly associated with unrestricted, exponential fungal growth in the amphibian epidermis. Mechanisms underpinning Bd and Bsal growth in the amphibian host are poorly understood. Here, we describe a quorum sensing mechanism that allows cell-to-cell communication by Bd and Bsal in order to regulate fungal densities and infection strategies. Addition of chytrid culture supernatant to chytrid cultures resulted in a concentration-dependent growth reduction and using dialysis, small metabolites were shown to be the causative factor. U-HPLC-MS/MS and in vitro growth tests identified the aromatic alcohol tryptophol as a key metabolite in regulating fungal growth. We determined tryptophol kinetics in both Bd and Bsal and confirmed the autostimulatory mode of action of this quorum sensing metabolite. Finally, we linked expression of genes that might be involved in tryptophol production, with in vitro and in vivo chytrid growth. Our results show that Bd and Bsal fungi use tryptophol to act as multicellular entities in order to regulate their growth

The role of SHDA in faecal shedding of Salmonella typhimurium in pigs

Prolonged faecal shedding of Salmonella in pigs contributes to contamination of carcasses. The shdA gene has been characterized as an important locus for persistency of Salmonella Typhimurium in mice. The aim of this study was to assess the contribution of ShdA in faecal shedding of S. Typhimurium in pigs. Pigs were orally inoculated with a S. Typhimurium strain or its isogenic shdA mutant strain. For the first few days after inoculation, the shdA mutant strain was more virulent than the wild type strain, as indicated by higher excretion levels, more pronounced diarrhea and higher numbers of infected organs. No effect on long-term shedding was found. Increased in vitro invasion levels of the shdA mutant strain were noticed in intestinal epithelial cells. In conclusion, a shdA mutant strain of S. Typhimurium is more virulent during the first days after inoculation and is not impaired in persistency or prolonged shedding in pigs

Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species

Interaction of Climate Change with Effects of Conspecific and Heterospecific Density on Reproduction

We studied the relationship between temperature and the coexistence of great titParus majorand blue titCyanistes caeruleus, breeding in 75 study plots across Europe and North Africa. We expected an advance in laying date and a reduction in clutch size during warmer springs as a general response to climate warming and a delay in laying date and a reduction in clutch size during warmer winters due to density-dependent effects. As expected, as spring temperature increases laying date advances and as winter temperature increases clutch size is reduced in both species. Density of great tit affected the relationship between winter temperature and laying date in great and blue tit. Specifically, as density of great tit increased and temperature in winter increased both species started to reproduce later. Density of blue tit affected the relationship between spring temperature and blue and great tit laying date. Thus, both species start to reproduce earlier with increasing spring temperature as density of blue tit increases, which was not an expected outcome, since we expected that increasing spring temperature should advance laying date, while increasing density should delay it cancelling each other out. Climate warming and its interaction with density affects clutch size of great tits but not of blue tits. As predicted, great tit clutch size is reduced more with density of blue tits as temperature in winter increases. The relationship between spring temperature and density on clutch size of great tits depends on whether the increase is in density of great tit or blue tit. Therefore, an increase in temperature negatively affected the coexistence of blue and great tits differently in both species. Thus, blue tit clutch size was unaffected by the interaction effect of density with temperature, while great tit clutch size was affected in multiple ways by these interactions terms.Institute of Biology of Karelian Research Centre 0218-2019-0080Academy of Finland 265859Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad CGL-2016-79568-C3-3-

Effects of Interspecific Coexistence on Laying Date and Clutch Size in Two Closely Related Species of Hole-nesting Birds

Coexistence between great tits Parus major and blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus, but also other hole-nesting taxa, constitutes a classic example of species co-occurrence resulting in potential interference and exploitation competition for food and for breeding and roosting sites. However, the spatial and temporal variations in coexistence and its consequences for competition remain poorly understood. We used an extensive database on reproduction in nest boxes by great and blue tits based on 87 study plots across Europe and Northern Africa during 1957–2012 for a total of 19,075 great tit and 16,729 blue tit clutches to assess correlative evidence for a relationship between laying date and clutch size, respectively, and density consistent with effects of intraspecific and interspecific competition. In an initial set of analyses, we statistically controlled for a suite of site-specific variables. We found evidence for an effect of intraspecific competition on blue tit laying date (later laying at higher density) and clutch size (smaller clutch size at higher density), but no evidence of significant effects of intraspecific competition in great tits, nor effects of interspecific competition for either species. To further control for site-specific variation caused by a range of potentially confounding variables, we compared means and variances in laying date and clutch size of great and blue tits among three categories of difference in density between the two species. We exploited the fact that means and variances are generally positively correlated. If interspecific competition occurs, we predicted a reduction in mean and an increase in variance in clutch size in great tit and blue tit when density of heterospecifics is higher than the density of conspecifics, and for intraspecific competition, this reduction would occur when density of conspecifics is higher than the density of heterospecifics. Such comparisons of temporal patterns of means and variances revealed evidence, for both species, consistent with intraspecific competition and to a smaller extent with interspecific competition. These findings suggest that competition associated with reproductive behaviour between blue and great tits is widespread, but also varies across large spatial and temporal scales. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal EcologyAcademy of Finland 26585

Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species

Nils Christian Stenseth et al.© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting longterm coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion.Peer Reviewe