Spatial Asset Pricing: A First Step

People choose where to live and how much to invest in housing. Traditionally, the first decision has been the domain of spatial economics, while the second has been analyzed in finance. Spatial asset pricing is an attempt to combine equilibrium concepts from both disciplines. In the finance context, we show how spatial decisions can be framed as an expanded portfolio problem. Within spatial economics, we identify the consequences of hedging motives for location decisions. We characterize a number of observable deviations from standard predictions in finance (e.g. the definition of the relevant market portfolio for the pricing of risk includes homeownership rates) and in spatial economics (e.g. hedging considerations and the pricing of risk affect the geographic allocation of human capital).

Homeownership: Low Household Mobility, Volatile Housing Prices, High Income Dispersion

We develop a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model of two locations within a city where heterogeneous households make joint location and tenure mode decisions. To investigate the effect of homeownership on equilibrium prices and allocations, we compare the response of this model economy to a labor shock with that of a rental-only version. This comparison yields three results. First, homeownership enables more households to remain in the more desirable location at the expense of newcomers. Second, homeownership adds to the volatility of the housing market. Third, homeownership may amplify the dispersion of household income within a location. Homeownership raises distributional issues. The households who consume the most housing gain the most from the ability to own their home. Newcomers to the city are the main losers.

Housing Market Fluctuations in a Life-Cycle Economy with Credit Constraints

This paper presents a first step towards a new theory of housing market fluctuations. We develop a life-cycle model where agents face credit constraints and their housing consumption is restricted to a discrete set of possibilities. The market interaction of young credit constrained agents climbing the property ladder with old agents trading down, generates co-movements of aggregate house prices, volume of transactions and income, consistent with the patterns observed in the U.S. and the U.K. Under plausible assumptions, the model reproduces the slight lead of transaction volume over the other two series as documented in the data. Our theory asserts that the fluctuations in housing prices depend crucially on fluctuations in the current income of young households (the first-time buyers). Thus, it sheds light on why housing prices are more volatile than GDP, and why they exhibit some degree of predictability in a market where households optimize over the timing of their transactions.Housing Demand, Income Fluctuations, Overlapping Generations, Collateral Constraint

Boom In, Bust Out: Young Households and the Housing Price Cycle

The UK experienced a major residential real estate boom-bust cycle from the mid-Eighties to the mid-Nineties, accompanied by unprecedented shifts in the owner occupancy rate of young households. Previous empirical analyses have pointed toward income changes and financial deregulation as the likely causes of this episode, with little to say about the differential effects on various age groups. We show that, in a life-cycle model with income heterogeneity and credit constraints, the observed co-movements of housing prices and owner occupancy rates can be explained as an equilibrium response to income and credit market shocks. Our findings suggest that the financial liberalisation of the early Eighties was crucial for the unparalleled increase in the owner occupancy rate of young households during the boom.Housing Demand, Income Fluctuations, Overlapping Generations, Collateral Constraint

House Price Volatility and the Housing Ladder

This paper investigates the effects of housing price risk on housing choices over the lifecycle. Housing price risk can be substantial but, unlike other risky assets which people can avoid, the fact that most people will eventually own their home creates an insurance demand for housing assets early in life. Our contribution is to focus on the importance of home ownership and housing wealth as a hedge against future house price risk for individuals moving up the ladder - people living in places with higher housing price risk should own their first home at a younger age, should live in larger homes, and should be less likely to refinance. These predictions are tested and shown to hold using panel data from the United States and Great Britain

Mortgage Market Maturity and Homeownership Inequality Among Young Households: A Five-Country Perspective

This paper uses the newly constructed Luxembourg Wealth Study data to document cross-country variation in homeownership rates and the homeownership-income inequality among young households in Finland, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US, and relate it to cross-country differences in mortgage market maturity. We find that aside from Italy, homeownership rates and inequality in the four countries correspond to their mortgage take up rates and its distribution across income, reflecting the different degree of development of their respective mortgage markets. In Italy, alternative ways of financing, such as family transfers, substitute the limited mortgage availability and explains the second highest homeownership rate in our sample, despite the lowest mortgage take up. The mortgage market in the UK is the most open and the most equal, which leads to the highest and most equally distributed homeownership in this country as well. The mortgage market in Germany is on the other side of the spectrum with very low mortgage take-up rates and strong dependence of homeownership and mortgage take up on household income. Finland and the US are in-between. Counterfactual predictions suggest that although household characteristics play some role in explaining the variation in home ownership rates across the five countries, it is mostly the country specific effects of these characteristics determined by the institutional environment as well as the functioning of the housing and mortgage markets that drive the main result

Hedging Housing Risk in London

This paper investigates the benefits of allowing households to compensate the portfolio distortion due to their housing consumption through investments in housing price derivatives. Focusing on the London market, we show that a major loss from over-investment in housing is that households are forced to hold a very risky portfolio. However, the strong performance of the London housing market means that little is lost in terms of expected returns. Even households with limited wealth are better off owning their home rather than renting and investing in financial assets, as long as they are willing to face the financial risk involved. In this context, access to housing price derivatives would benefit most poor homeowners looking to limit their risk exposure. It would also benefit wealthier investors looking for the high returns provided by housing investments without the costs of direct ownership of properties. Comparisons with French, Swedish and US data provide a broader perspective on our findings.portfolio risk, house price index, hedging

Code files for "Household Expenditures, Wages, Rents"

STATA code to extract and use the IPUMS data for the article.

The Political Economy of Housing Supply:Homeowners, Workers, and Voters

Equilibrium of the housing market depends on a complex set of interactions between: (1)individual location decisions; (2) individual housing investment; (3) collective decisions onurban growth. We embed these three elements in a model of a dynamic economy with twosources of friction: ill-de…ned property rights on future land development and uninsurableshocks a¤ecting labor productivity. We characterize the feedback between the households’desire to invest in housing as a hedge against the risk of rent ‡uctuations and their supportfor supply restrictions once they own housing. The model generates an ine¢ ciently lowsupply of housing in equilibrium. The model also rationalizes the persistence of housingundersupply: the more restricted the initial housing supply, the smaller the city size selectedby the voting process. We use the model to study the e¤ects of a number of policies andinstitutional changes.Housing Supply, Housing Demand, Regulatory Policies, Political Economy.

Heterogeneity within Communities: A Stochastic Model with Tenure Choice

Housing Markets, Dynamic Sorting, Tenure Choice