Representativeness and optimal use of body mass index (BMI) in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

OBJECTIVES: To assess the completeness and representativeness of body mass index (BMI) data in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), and determine an optimal strategy for their use. DESIGN: Descriptive study. SETTING: Electronic healthcare records from primary care. PARTICIPANTS: A million patient random sample from the UK CPRD primary care database, aged ≥16 years. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: BMI completeness in CPRD was evaluated by age, sex and calendar period. CPRD-based summary BMI statistics for each calendar year (2003-2010) were age-standardised and sex-standardised and compared with equivalent statistics from the Health Survey for England (HSE). RESULTS: BMI completeness increased over calendar time from 37% in 1990-1994 to 77% in 2005-2011, was higher among females and increased with age. When BMI at specific time points was assigned based on the most recent record, calendar-year-specific mean BMI statistics underestimated equivalent HSE statistics by 0.75-1.1 kg/m(2). Restriction to those with a recent (≤3 years) BMI resulted in mean BMI estimates closer to HSE (≤0.28 kg/m(2) underestimation), but excluded up to 47% of patients. An alternative strategy of imputing up-to-date BMI based on modelled changes in BMI over time since the last available record also led to mean BMI estimates that were close to HSE (≤0.37 kg/m(2) underestimation). CONCLUSIONS: Completeness of BMI in CPRD increased over time and varied by age and sex. At a given point in time, a large proportion of the most recent BMIs are unlikely to reflect current BMI; consequent BMI misclassification might be reduced by employing model-based imputation of current BMI

Effectiveness of herpes zoster vaccination in an older United Kingdom population.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination against herpes zoster was introduced in the United Kingdom in 2013 for individuals aged 70 years, with a phased catch-up campaign for 71-79 year olds. Vaccine introduction has resulted in a marked fall in incident herpes zoster and in post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), but formal evaluation of vaccine effectiveness is needed. METHODS: In a population-based cohort study of older individuals born between 1933 and 1946, we used linked UK anonymised primary care health records for the first three years of the vaccination programme (01/09/2013-31/08/2016) and multivariable Poisson regression to obtain incidence rates and vaccine effectiveness (VE) against zoster and PHN. RESULTS: Among 516,547 individuals, 21% were vaccinated. Incidence of zoster was 3.15/1000 person-years in vaccinees and 8.80/1000 person-years in unvaccinated individuals. After adjustment, VE was 64% (95%CI = 60-68%) against incident zoster and 81% (95%CI = 61-91%) against PHN, with very similar VE estimates in the routine and catch-up cohorts. VE against zoster was lower in those with a previous history of zoster: 47% (95%CI = 31-58%) versus 64% (95%CI = 60-68%) in those without previous zoster. There was evidence of waning VE over time, from 69% (95%CI = 65-74%) in the first year after vaccination to 45% (95%CI = 29-57%) by the third year. CONCLUSION: This first formal assessment of VE in the UK zoster vaccination programme demonstrates good effectiveness of zoster vaccine, and very good protection against PHN. The findings provide evidence that VE is similar across the age groups targeted for vaccination in the UK, and on duration of protection of the vaccine in public health use. The study provides key information for decision-makers about the future direction of UK zoster vaccination programme, indicating that the live zoster vaccine may be more cost-effective than estimated previously. It also supports efforts to communicate the benefits of zoster vaccination to address the declining coverage observed across the UK

Metformin and cancer in type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and comprehensive bias evaluation.

Background: Existing observational studies provide conflicting evidence for the causal effect of metformin use on cancer risk in patients with type-2 diabetes, and there are concerns about bias affecting a number of studies. Methods: MEDLINE was used to identify observational studies investigating the association between metformin and overall or site-specific cancer in people with type-2 diabetes. A systematic data extraction and bias assessment was conducted, in which risk of eight bias domains (outcome, exposure, control selection, baseline confounding, time-dependent confounding, immortal time, missing data, censoring methods) were assessed against pre-defined criteria, and rated as unlikely, low, medium or high. Results: Of 46 studies identified, 21 assessed the effect of metformin on all cancer. Reported relative risks ranged from 0.23 to 1.22, with 12/21 reporting a statistically significant protective effect and none a harmful effect. The range of estimates was similar for site-specific cancers; 3/46 studies were rated as low or unlikely risk of bias in all domains. Two of these had results consistent with no effect of metformin; one observed a moderate protective effect overall, but presented further analyses that the authors concluded were inconsistent with causality. However, 28/46 studies were at risk from bias through exposure definition, 22 through insufficient baseline adjustment and 35 from possible time-dependent confounding. Conclusions: Observational studies on metformin and cancer varied in design, and the majority were at risk of a range of biases. The studies least likely to be affected by bias did not support a causal effect of metformin on cancer risk

A systematic review and meta-analysis of risk factors for postherpetic neuralgia.

Patients with herpes zoster can develop persistent pain after rash healing, a complication known as postherpetic neuralgia. By preventing zoster through vaccination, the risk of this common complication is reduced. We searched MEDLINE and Embase for studies assessing risk factors for postherpetic neuralgia, with a view to informing vaccination policy. Nineteen prospective studies were identified. Meta-analysis showed significant increases in the risk of postherpetic neuralgia with clinical features of acute zoster including prodromal pain (summary rate ratio 2.29, 95% confidence interval: 1.42-3.69), severe acute pain (2.23, 1.71-2.92), severe rash (2.63, 1.89-3.66), and ophthalmic involvement (2.51, 1.29-4.86). Older age was significantly associated with postherpetic neuralgia; for individual studies, relative risk estimates per 10-year increase ranged from 1.22 to 3.11. Evidence for differences by gender was conflicting, with considerable between-study heterogeneity. A proportion of studies reported an increased risk of postherpetic neuralgia with severe immunosuppression (studies, n = 3/5) and diabetes mellitus (n = 1/4). Systemic lupus erythematosus, recent trauma, and personality disorder symptoms were associated with postherpetic neuralgia in single studies. No evidence of higher postherpetic neuralgia risk was found with depression (n = 4) or cancer (n = 5). Our review confirms a number of clinical features of acute zoster are risk factors for postherpetic neuralgia. It has also identified a range of possible vaccine-targetable risk factors for postherpetic neuralgia; yet aside from age-associated risks, evidence regarding risk factors to inform zoster vaccination policy is currently limited

Severe and predominantly active atopic eczema in adulthood and long term risk of cardiovascular disease: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether adults with atopic eczema are at an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and whether the risk varies by atopic eczema severity and condition activity over time. DESIGN: Population based matched cohort study. SETTING: UK electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics, and data from the Office for National Statistics, 1998-2015. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with a diagnosis of atopic eczema, matched (on age, sex, general practice, and calendar time) to up to five patients without atopic eczema. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cardiovascular outcomes (myocardial infarction, unstable angina, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke, and cardiovascular death). RESULTS: 387 439 patients with atopic eczema were matched to 1 528 477 patients without atopic eczema. The median age was 43 at cohort entry and 66% were female. Median follow-up was 5.1 years. Evidence of a 10% to 20% increased hazard for the non-fatal primary outcomes for patients with atopic eczema was found by using Cox regression stratified by matched set. There was a strong dose-response relation with severity of atopic eczema. Patients with severe atopic eczema had a 20% increase in the risk of stroke (hazard ratio 1.22, 99% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.48), 40% to 50% increase in the risk of myocardial infarction, unstable angina, atrial fibrillation, and cardiovascular death, and 70% increase in the risk of heart failure (hazard ratio 1.69, 99% confidence interval 1.38 to 2.06). Patients with the most active atopic eczema (active >50% of follow-up) were also at a greater risk of cardiovascular outcomes. Additional adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors as potential mediators partially attenuated the point estimates, though associations persisted for severe atopic eczema. CONCLUSIONS: Severe and predominantly active atopic eczema are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular outcomes. Targeting cardiovascular disease prevention strategies among these patients should be considered

Quantification of risk factors for postherpetic neuralgia in herpes zoster patients: A cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate risk factors for postherpetic neuralgia, the neuropathic pain that commonly follows herpes zoster. METHODS: Using primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we fitted multivariable logistic regression models to investigate potential risk factors for postherpetic neuralgia (defined as pain ≥90 days after zoster, based on diagnostic or prescription codes), including demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and characteristics of the acute zoster episode. We also assessed whether the effects were modified by antiviral use. RESULTS: Of 119,413 zoster patients, 6,956 (5.8%) developed postherpetic neuralgia. Postherpetic neuralgia risk rose steeply with age, most sharply between 50 and 79 years (adjusted odds ratio [OR] for a 10-year increase, 1.70, 99% confidence interval 1.63-1.78). Postherpetic neuralgia risk was higher in women (6.3% vs 5.1% in men: OR 1.19, 1.10-1.27) and those with severely immunosuppressive conditions, including leukemia (13.7%: 2.07, 1.08-3.96) and lymphoma (12.7%: 2.45, 1.53-3.92); autoimmune conditions, including rheumatoid arthritis (9.1%: 1.20, 0.99-1.46); and other comorbidities, including asthma and diabetes. Current and ex-smokers, as well as underweight and obese individuals, were at increased risk of postherpetic neuralgia. Antiviral use was not associated with postherpetic neuralgia (OR 1.04, 0.97-1.11). However, the increased risk associated with severe immunosuppression appeared less pronounced in patients given antivirals. CONCLUSIONS: Postherpetic neuralgia risk was increased for a number of patient characteristics and comorbidities, notably with age and among those with severe immunosuppression. As zoster vaccination is contraindicated for patients with severe immunosuppression, strategies to prevent zoster in these patients, which could include the new subunit zoster vaccine, are an increasing priority

Quantification of risk factors for herpes zoster: population based case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the effects of possible risk factors for herpes zoster at different ages. DESIGN: Case-control study. SETTING: UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink primary care data. PARTICIPANTS: 144 959 adults diagnosed with zoster between 2000 and 2011; 549,336 age, sex, and practice matched controls. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Conditional logistic regression was used to generate adjusted odds ratios to estimate the strength of association of each potential risk factor with zoster and assess effect modification by age. RESULTS: The median age of the cases and controls was 62 years. Factors associated with increased risk of zoster included rheumatoid arthritis (3111 (2.1%) v 8029 (1.5%); adjusted odds ratio 1.46, 99% confidence interval 1.38 to 1.55), inflammatory bowel disease (1851 (1.3%) v 5118 (0.9%); 1.36, 1.26 to 1.46), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (6815 (4.7%) v 20 201 (3.7%); 1.32, 1.27 to 1.37), asthma (10 243 (7.1%) v 31 865 (5.8%); 1.21, 1.17 to 1.25), chronic kidney disease (8724 (6.0%) v 29 437 (5.4%); 1.14, 1.09 to 1.18), and depression (6830 (4.7%) v 22 052 (4.0%); 1.15, 1.10 to 1.20). Type 1, but not type 2, diabetes showed some association with zoster (adjusted odds ratio 1.27, 1.07 to 1.50). The relative effects of many assessed risk factors were larger in younger patients. Patients with severely immunosuppressive conditions were at greatest risk of zoster-for example, patients with lymphoma (adjusted odds ratio 3.90, 3.21 to 4.74) and myeloma (2.16, 1.84 to 2.53), who are not eligible for zoster vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: A range of conditions were associated with increased risk of zoster. In general, the increased risk was proportionally greater in younger age groups. Current vaccines are contraindicated in people at the greatest risk of zoster, highlighting the need for alternative risk reduction strategies in these groups

Association of Relative Age in the School Year With Diagnosis of Intellectual Disability, Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder, and Depression.

IMPORTANCE: Young relative age within the school year has previously been associated with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnosis and, based on limited evidence, diagnosis of intellectual disability. No study to date has examined the association between relative age and diagnosis of depression. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the associations with intellectual disability and ADHD and investigate a potential novel association between relative age and childhood depression. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This population-based cohort study of 1 042 106 children aged 4 to 15 years used electronic record data collected before January 3, 2017, from more than 700 general practices contributing to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was used to explore the association between relative age and the incidence of intellectual disability, ADHD, and depression before age 16 years. Data were analyzed between July 2017 and January 2019. EXPOSURES: Relative age within school year determined by month of birth and categorized into four 3-month groups. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Intellectual disability, ADHD, and depression. RESULTS: In the total cohort of 1 042 106 children, 532 876 were male (51.1%) and the median age at study entry was 4.0 years (interquartile range, 4.0-5.0). There was evidence that being born in the last quarter of the school year (ie, being the youngest group in a school year) was associated with diagnosis of intellectual disability (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.30; 95% CI, 1.18-1.42), ADHD (aHR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.28-1.45), and depression (aHR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.08-1.59) compared with being born in the first quarter. A graded association was seen with intermediate age groups at a smaller increased risk of each diagnosis compared with the oldest group, with aHRs for intellectual disability for those born in the second quarter of 1.06 (95% CI, 0.96-1.17) and for those born in the third quarter of 1.20 (95% CI, 1.09-1.32); aHRs for ADHD for those born in the second quarter of 1.15 (95% CI, 1.08-1.23) and for those born in the third quarter of 1.31 (95% CI, 1.23-1.40); and aHRs for depression for those born in the second quarter of 1.05 (95% CI, 0.85-1.29) and for those born in the third quarter of 1.13 (95% CI, 0.92-1.38). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, relative youth status in the school year is associated with an increased risk of diagnosis of ADHD, intellectual disability, and depression in childhood. Further research into clinical and policy interventions to minimize these associations appears to be needed

Partner Bereavement and Risk of Herpes Zoster: Results from Two Population-Based Case-Control Studies in Denmark and the United Kingdom.

Background: Psychological stress is commonly thought to increase the risk of herpes zoster by causing immunosuppression. However, epidemiological studies on the topic are sparse and inconsistent. We conducted 2 parallel case-control studies of the association between partner bereavement and risk of zoster using electronic healthcare data covering the entire Danish population and general practices in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Methods: We included patients with a zoster diagnosis from the primary care or hospital-based setting in 1997-2013 in Denmark (n = 190671) and 2000-2013 in the United Kingdom (n = 150207). We matched up to 4 controls to each case patient by age, sex, and general practice (United Kingdom only) using risk-set sampling. The date of diagnosis was the index date for case patients and their controls. We computed adjusted odds ratios with 99% confidence intervals for previous bereavement among case patients versus controls using conditional logistic regression with results from the 2 settings pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Results: Overall, the adjusted odds ratios for the association between partner bereavement and zoster were 1.05 (99% confidence interval, 1.03-1.07) in Denmark and 1.01 (.98-1.05) in the United Kingdom. The pooled estimates were 0.72, 0.90, 1.10, 1.08, 1.02, 1.04, and 1.03 for bereavement within 0-7, 8-14, 15-30, 31-90, 91-365, 366-1095, and >1095 days before the index date, respectively. Conclusions: We found no consistent evidence of an increased risk of zoster after partner death. Initial fluctuations in estimates may be explained by delayed healthcare contact due to the loss