Association between pharmaceutical modulation of oestrogen in postmenopausal women in Sweden and death due to COVID-19 : a cohort study

Objective Determine whether augmentation of oestrogen in postmenopausal women decreases the risk of death following COVID-19. Design Nationwide registry-based study in Sweden based on registries from the Swedish Public Health Agency (all individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2); Statistics Sweden (socioeconomical variables) and the National Board of Health and Welfare (causes of death). Participants Postmenopausal women between 50 and 80 years of age with verified COVID-19. Interventions Pharmaceutical modulation of oestrogen as defined by (1) women with previously diagnosed breast cancer and receiving endocrine therapy (decreased systemic oestrogen levels); (2) women receiving hormone replacement therapy (increased systemic oestrogen levels) and (3) a control group not fulfilling requirements for group 1 or 2 (postmenopausal oestrogen levels). Adjustments were made for potential confounders such as age, annual disposable income (richest group as the reference category), highest level of education (primary, secondary and tertiary (reference)) and the weighted Charlson Comorbidity Index (wCCI). Primary outcome measure Death following COVID-19. Results From a nationwide cohort consisting of 49 853 women diagnosed with COVID-19 between 4 February and 14 September 2020 in Sweden, 16 693 were between 50 and 80 years of age. We included 14 685 women in the study with 11 923 (81%) in the control group, 227 (2%) women in group 1 and 2535 (17%) women in group 2. The unadjusted ORs for death following COVID-19 were 2.35 (95% CI 1.51 to 3.65) for group 1 and 0.45 (0.34 to 0.6) for group 2. Only the adjusted OR for death remained significant for group 2 with OR 0.47 (0.34 to 0.63). Absolute risk of death was 4.6% for the control group vs 10.1% and 2.1%, for the decreased and increased oestrogen groups, respectively. The risk of death due to COVID-19 was significantly associated with: age, OR 1.15 (1.14 to 1.17); annual income, poorest 2.79 (1.96 to 3.97), poor 2.43 (91.71 to 3.46) and middle 1.64 (1.11 to 2.41); and education (primary 1.4 (1.07 to 1.81)) and wCCI 1.13 (1.1 to 1.16). Conclusions Oestrogen supplementation in postmenopausal women is associated with a decreased risk of dying from COVID-19 in this nationwide cohort study. These findings are limited by the retrospective and non-randomised design. Further randomised intervention trials are warranted.Peer reviewe

"The devil is in the detail": geographical inequalities of femicides in Ecuador

BACKGROUND: Femicide is a very important public health problem in Ecuador. Since regional and country-level femicide rates can obscure significant variations at the sub-national level, it is important to provide information at the lowest relevant level of disaggregation to be able to develop targeted preventive policies. The aim of this study was to assess the spatial distribution of the femicide rate and to examine its spatial clustering at the canton level in Ecuador in the period 2018-2019. METHODS: Data on cases were collected by a national network of non-governmental organizations. Two age-disaggregated analyses were done, one for the 15 to 24 years-olds and the other for the female population of 15 and older. Age-specific population data were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics for the study period. Standardized mortality ratios for mapping the mortality were calculated using hierarchical Bayesian models and spatial scan statistics were applied to identify local clusters. Thematic maps of age-specific femicide rates were also constructed. RESULTS: During the two-year period, 61 and 183 women were killed in the age ranges 15-24 and 15 years and older, respectively. The annual rate of femicides in Ecuador was 1.0 and 0.8 per 100,000 in the female population aged 15-24 and 15+, respectively, with substantial variations among cantons. The spatial analysis contributed to visualize high risk cantons, which were mainly located in a small area in the central part of the country (for those 15+) but especially in the Amazon region, for both of the studied age groups. CONCLUSIONS: This study has shown the usefulness of applying spatial analysis to the problem of femicides in Ecuador. The study has revealed important variations among cantons but also a spatial clustering, mainly in the Amazon region of the country. The results should help policymakers to focus on current prevention programmes for violence against women into these high-risk areas. Continuous monitoring of femicides at low-level geographical areas is highly recommended

Hot and cold weather based on the spatial synoptic classification and cause-specific mortality in Sweden : a time-stratified case-crossover study

The spatial synoptic classification (SSC) is a holistic categorical assessment of the daily weather conditions at specific locations; it is a useful tool for assessing weather effects on health. In this study, we assessed (a) the effect of hot weather types and the duration of heat events on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in summer and (b) the effect of cold weather types and the duration of cold events on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in winter. A time-stratified case-crossover design combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model was carried out to investigate the association of weather types with cause-specific mortality in two southern (Skåne and Stockholm) and two northern (Jämtland and Västerbotten) locations in Sweden. During summer, in the southern locations, the Moist Tropical (MT) and Dry Tropical (DT) weather types increased cardiovascular and respiratory mortality at shorter lags; both hot weather types substantially increased respiratory mortality mainly in Skåne. The impact of heat events on mortality by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was more important in the southern than in the northern locations at lag 0. The cumulative effect of MT, DT and heat events lagged over 14 days was particularly high for respiratory mortality in all locations except in Jämtland, though these did not show a clear effect on cardiovascular mortality. During winter, the dry polar and moist polar weather types and cold events showed a negligible effect on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. This study provides valuable information about the relationship between hot oppressive weather types with cause-specific mortality; however, the cold weather types may not capture sufficiently effects on cause-specific mortality in this sub-Arctic region

Intersectional inequalities in loneliness among older adults before and during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic : A total population survey in the Swedish eldercare setting

Loneliness among older adults is a public health problem that has received particular attention since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Studies to date have however found a rather modest psychosocial impact of the pandemic on older adults, and scarce research has analyzed this impact using a comprehensive equity lens. The present study used an intersectional approach to examine social inequalities in loneliness before and during the early phase of the pandemic among older adults receiving eldercare in Sweden. The study population (analytical N = 205,529) came from two waves (2019 and 2020) of a total population survey to all older adult (>65 years of age) home care recipients and nursing home residents in Sweden. Loneliness was self-reported by a single-item measure, and survey data were linked to population register data on age, gender, residential setting, income, and country of birth. Additive binomial regression models were used to estimate prevalence differences and discriminatory accuracy according to an analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (AIHDA) approach. Results showed inequalities in loneliness arising particularly in the intersection of country of birth, income, and residential setting. The inequalities widened slightly but ubiquitously following the emergence of the pandemic in 2020, with particularly nursing home residents emerging as a risk group. The discriminatory accuracy of inequalities was consistently low to moderate throughout the analyses but increased marginally during the pandemic in 2020. The study illustrates how social inequalities engenders heterogeneity in the psychosocial risk of older adults before and during the pandemic. These findings should stimulate more nuanced and equity-oriented depictions, research and policies about loneliness among older adults in the peri-pandemic era

Projection of extreme heat- and cold-related mortality in Sweden based on the spatial synoptic classification

Background: Climate change is projected to result in increased heat events and decreased cold events. This will substantially impact human health, particularly when compounded with demographic change. This study employed the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) to categorize daily weather into one of seven types. Here we estimated future mortality due to extremely hot and cold weather types under different climate change scenarios for one southern (Stockholm) and one northern (Jämtland) Swedish region. Methods: Time-series Poisson regression with distributed lags was used to assess the relationship between extremely hot and cold weather events and daily deaths in the population above 65 years, with cumulative effects (6 days in summer, 28 days in winter), 1991 to 2014. A global climate model (MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used to project the occurrence of hot and cold days from 2031 to 2070. Place-specific projected mortality was calculated to derive attributable numbers and attributable fractions (AF) of heat- and cold-related deaths. Results: In Stockholm, for the RCP 4.5 scenario, the mean number of annual deaths attributed to heat increased from 48.7 (CI 32.2–64.2; AF = 0.68%) in 2031–2040 to 90.2 (56.7–120.5; AF = 0.97%) in 2061–2070, respectively. For RCP 8.5, heat-related deaths increased more drastically from 52.1 (33.6–69.7; AF = 0.72%) to 126.4 (68.7–175.8; AF = 1.36%) between the first and the last decade. Cold-related deaths slightly increased over the projected period in both scenarios. In Jämtland, projections showed a small decrease in cold-related deaths but no change in heat-related mortality. Conclusions: In rural northern region of Sweden, a decrease of cold-related deaths represents the dominant trend. In urban southern locations, on the other hand, an increase of heat-related mortality is to be expected. With an increasing elderly population, heat-related mortality will outweigh cold-related mortality at least under the RCP 8.5 scenario, requiring societal adaptation measures

Association between Weather Types based on the Spatial Synoptic Classification and All-Cause Mortality in Sweden, 1991⁻2014

Much is known about the adverse health impact of high and low temperatures. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is a useful tool for assessing weather effects on health because it considers the combined effect of meteorological factors rather than temperature only. The aim of this study was to assess the association between oppressive weather types and daily total mortality in Sweden. Time-series Poisson regression with distributed lags was used to assess the relationship between oppressive weather (Dry Polar, Dry Tropical, Moist Polar, and Moist Tropical) and daily deaths over 14 days in the extended summer (May to September), and 28 days during the extended winter (November to March), from 1991 to 2014. Days not classified as oppressive weather served as the reference category. We computed relative risks with 95% confidence intervals, adjusting for trends and seasonality. Results of the southern (Skåne and Stockholm) and northern (Jämtland and Västerbotten) locations were pooled using meta-analysis for regional-level estimates. Analyses were performed using the dlnm and mvmeta packages in R. During summer, in the South, the Moist Tropical and Dry Tropical weather types increased the mortality at lag 0 through lag 3 and lag 6, respectively. Moist Polar weather was associated with mortality at longer lags. In the North, Dry Tropical weather increased the mortality at shorter lags. During winter, in the South, Dry Polar and Moist Polar weather increased mortality from lag 6 to lag 10 and from lag 19 to lag 26, respectively. No effect of oppressive weather was found in the North. The effect of oppressive weather types in Sweden varies across seasons and regions. In the North, a small study sample reduces precision of estimates, while in the South, the effect of oppressive weather types is more evident in both seasons

Effect of extreme hot and cold weather on cause-specific hospitalizations in Sweden : A time series analysis

Considering that several meteorological variables can contribute to weather vulnerability, the estimation of their synergetic effects on health is particularly useful. The spatial synoptic classification (SSC) has been used in biometeorological applications to estimate the effect of the entire suite of weather conditions on human morbidity and mortality. In this study, we assessed the relationships between extremely hot and dry (dry tropical plus, DT+) and hot and moist (moist tropical plus, MT+) weather types in summer and extremely cold and dry (dry polar plus, DP+) and cold and moist (moist polar, MP+) weather types in winter and cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations by age and sex. Time-series quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lags was used to assess the relationship between oppressive weather types and daily hospitalizations over 14 subsequent days in the extended summer (May to August) and 28 subsequent days during the extended winter (November to March) over 24 years in 4 Swedish locations from 1991 to 2014. In summer, exposure to hot weather types appeared to reduce cardiovascular hospitalizations while increased the risk of hospitalizations for respiratory diseases, mainly related to MT+. In winter, the effect of cold weather on both cause-specific hospitalizations was small; however, MP+ was related to a delayed increase in cardiovascular hospitalizations, whilst MP+ and DP + increased the risk of hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases. This study provides useful information for the staff of hospitals and elderly care centers who can help to implement protective measures for patients and residents. Also, our results could be helpful for vulnerable people who can adopt protective measures to reduce health risks

Inequitable impact of infection : social gradients in severe COVID-19 outcomes among all confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases during the first pandemic wave in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: The backdrop of the ubiquitous social inequalities has increasingly come into foreground in research on the COVID-19 pandemic, but the lack of high-quality population-based studies limits our understanding of the inequitable outcomes of the disease. The present study seeks to estimate social gradients in COVID-19 hospitalisations, intensive care admissions and death by education, income and country of birth, while taking into account disparities in comorbidities. METHODS: We used a register-based retrospective open cohort design enrolling all 74 659 confirmed SARS-CoV-2-positive cases aged >25 years in Sweden during the first wave of the pandemic (until 14 September 2020). Information was retrieved from multiple registers and linked by the unique Swedish personal identity number concerning COVID-19 case identification; COVID-19 hospitalisations, intensive care admissions and death; comorbidities as measured by the Charlson Comorbidity Index; and sociodemographic information. Social gradients were estimated by the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) using Cox regression. RESULTS: Adjusted analyses showed significant social gradients in COVID-19 hospitalisation, intensive care admission, across education, income and country of birth, which were unaffected by adjustment for comorbidities. Education and country of birth gradients were stronger for hospitalisation and intensive care admissions but small to non-existent for death. In contrast, income gradients were consistent across all three COVID-19 outcomes. CONCLUSION: Social gradients in severe COVID-19 outcomes are widespread in Sweden, but appear to be unrelated to pre-existing health disparities. Inequitable outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection may therefore be at least partially avoidable and could rely on equitable management of confirmed COVID-19 cases

Quality of Care in Family Planning Services : Differences Between Formal and Informal Settlements of Kira Municipality, Uganda

Background: Quality of care (QoC) of family planning (FP) affects contraceptive use, and it varies across types of urban settlement. This study assesses the difference in service delivery point (SDP) structural and process factors between formal and informal urban settlements, and the opinion of the client on the QoC in informal settlements. This is useful in creating an evidence base to advocate for better quality services for the most vulnerable in society. Methods: This was a cross-sectional survey that included SDPs of Kira municipality in Wakiso district, Uganda. Data were collected from all the service points in Kira municipality with the caretakers consented. In addition, using multi-stage sampling, 626 women of reproductive age (15–49 years) who lived in the informal settlements of Kira municipality were interviewed. Data were collected using structured questionnaires, descriptive analysis was carried out in Stata version 14.0, and Chi-square and t-tests were used to compare the informal with the formal settlements. Results: Formal settlements generally had more higher-level SDPs compared to informal settlements (value of p < 0.001). SDPs in the formal settlements provided more FP methods and had more community health workers (CHW) to support their work. Also, SDPs in the formal settlements were more likely to have long-term FP methods available and more likely to have trained personnel to insert and remove implants and IUDs compared to those in informal settlements. Additionally, more SDPs in the formal settlements provided counseling for permanent, long-term, and short-term FP methods. Of the 626 interviewed women, most of the women (68.6%) reported that they would not return to the previous FP provider or refer a friend to the same provider (72.7%). Conclusions: There is a lower quality FP services in the informal settlements with a commensurable effect on the client satisfaction with the services. Therefore, improving the quality of FP services in informal settlements should be a top priority. Improved quality of services could act as a motivation to increase the uptake of modern contraceptives in such settings

Did the COVID-19 quarantine policies applied in Cochabamba, Bolivia mitigated cases successfully? : an interrupted time series analysis

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic prompted varied policy responses globally, with LatinAmerica facing unique challenges. A detailed examination of these policies’ impacts on healthsystems is crucial, particularly in Bolivia, where information about policy implementation andoutcomes is limited. Objective: To describe the COVID-19 testing trends and evaluate the effects of quarantinemeasures on these trends in Cochabamba, Bolivia. Methods: Utilizing COVID-19 testing data from the Cochabamba Department Health Servicefor the 2020–2022 period. Stratified testing rates in the health system sectors were firstestimated followed by an interrupted time series analysis using a quasi-Poisson regressionmodel for assessing the quarantine effects on the mitigation of cases during surge periods. Results: The public sector reported the larger percentage of tests (65%), followed by theprivate sector (23%) with almost double as many tests as the public-social security sector(11%). In the time series analysis, a correlation between the implementation of quarantinepolicies and a decrease in the slope of positive rates of COVID-19 cases was observedcompared to periods without or with reduced quarantine policies. Conclusion: This research underscores the local health system disparities and the effective-ness of stringent quarantine measures in curbing COVID-19 transmission in the Cochabambaregion. The findings stress the importance of the measures’ intensity and duration, providingvaluable lessons for Bolivia and beyond. As the global community learns from the pandemic,these insights are critical for shaping resilient and effective health policy responses