Large-scale surface responses during European dry spells diagnosed from land surface temperature

Soil moisture plays a fundamental role in regulating the summertime surface energy balance across Europe. Understanding the spatial and temporal behaviour in soil moisture and its control on evapotranspiration (ET) is critically important, and influences heat wave events. Global climate models (GCMs) exhibit a broad range of land responses to soil moisture in regions which lie between wet and dry soil regimes. In situ observations of soil moisture and evaporation are limited in space, and given the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape, are unrepresentative of the GCM grid box scale. On the other hand, satellite-borne observations of land surface temperature (LST) can provide important information at the larger scale. As a key component of the surface energy balance, LST is used to provide an indirect measure of surface drying across the landscape. In order to isolate soil moisture constraints on evaporation, time series of clear sky LST are analysed during dry spells lasting at least 10 days from March to October. Averaged over thousands of dry spell events across Europe, and accounting for atmospheric temperature variations, regional surface warming of between 0.5 and 0.8 K is observed over the first 10 days of a dry spell. Land surface temperatures are found to be sensitive to antecedent rainfall; stronger dry spell warming rates are observed following relatively wet months, indicative of soil moisture memory effects on the monthly time scale. Furthermore, clear differences in surface warming rate are found between cropland and forest, consistent with contrasting hydrological and aerodynamic properties

TWINLATIN: Twinning European and Latin-American river basins for research enabling sustainable water resources management. Combined Report D3.1 Hydrological modelling report and D3.2 Evaluation report

Water use has almost tripled over the past 50 years and in some regions the water demand already exceeds supply (Vorosmarty et al., 2000). The world is facing a “global water crisis”; in many countries, current levels of water use are unsustainable, with systems vulnerable to collapse from even small changes in water availability. The need for a scientifically-based assessment of the potential impacts on water resources of future changes, as a basis for society to adapt to such changes, is strong for most parts of the world. Although the focus of such assessments has tended to be climate change, socio-economic changes can have as significant an impact on water availability across the four main use sectors i.e. domestic, agricultural, industrial (including energy) and environmental. Withdrawal and consumption of water is expected to continue to grow substantially over the next 20-50 years (Cosgrove & Rijsberman, 2002), and consequent changes in availability may drastically affect society and economies. One of the most needed improvements in Latin American river basin management is a higher level of detail in hydrological modelling and erosion risk assessment, as a basis for identification and analysis of mitigation actions, as well as for analysis of global change scenarios. Flow measurements are too costly to be realised at more than a few locations, which means that modelled data are required for the rest of the basin. Hence, TWINLATIN Work Package 3 “Hydrological modelling and extremes” was formulated to provide methods and tools to be used by other WPs, in particular WP6 on “Pollution pressure and impact analysis” and WP8 on “Change effects and vulnerability assessment”. With an emphasis on high and low flows and their impacts, WP3 was originally called “Hydrological modelling, flooding, erosion, water scarcity and water abstraction”. However, at the TWINLATIN kick-off meeting it was agreed that some of these issues resided more appropriately in WP6 and WP8, and so WP3 was renamed to focus on hydrological modelling and hydrological extremes. The specific objectives of WP3 as set out in the Description of Work are

Drought at the global scale in the 2nd part of the 20th century (1963-2001)

The large impacts of drought on society, economy and environment urge for a thorough investigation. A good knowledge of past drought events is important for both understanding of the processes causing drought, as well as to provide reliability assessments for drought projections for the future. Preferably, the investigation of historic drought events should rely on observations. Unfortunately, for a global scale these detailed observations are often not available. Therefore, the outcome of global hydrological models (GHMs) and off-line land surface models (LSMs) is used to assess droughts. In this study we have investigated to what extent simulated gridded time series from these large-scale models capture historic hydrological drought events. Results of ten different models, both GHMs and LSMs, made available by the WATCH project, were compared. All models are run on a global 0.5 degree grid for the period 1963-2000 with the same meteorological forcing data (WATCH forcing data). To identify hydrological drought events, the monthly aggregated total runoff values were used. Different methods were developed to identify spatio-temporal drought characteristics. General drought characteristics for each grid cell, as for example the average drought duration, were compared. These characteristics show that when comparing absolute values the models give substantially different results, whereas relative values lead to more or less the same drought pattern. Next to the general drought characteristics, some documented major historical drought events (one for each continent) were selected and described in more detail. For each drought event, the simulated drought clusters (spatial events) and their characteristics are given for one month during the event. It can be concluded that most major drought events are captured by all models. However, the spatial extent of the drought events differ substantially between the models. In general the models show a fast reaction to rainfall and therefore also capture drought events caused by large rainfall anomalies. More research is still needed, since here we only looked at a few selected number of documented drought events spread over the globe. To assess more in detail if these large-scale models are able to capture drought, additional quantitative analyses are needed together with a more elaborated comparison against observed drought events

An evaluation of modeled evaporation regimes in Europe using observed dry spell land surface temperature

Soil moisture availability exerts control over the land surface energy partition in parts of Europe. However, determining the strength and variability of this control is impeded by the lack of reliable evaporation observations at the continental scale. This makes it difficult to refine the broad range of soil moisture–evaporation behaviours across global climate models (GCMs). Previous studies show that satellite observations of land surface temperature (LST) during rain-free dry spells can be used to diagnose evaporation regimes at the GCM grid box scale. This Relative Warming Rate (RWR) diagnostic quantifies the increase in dry spell LST relative to air temperature, and is used here to evaluate a land surface model (JULES) both offline and coupled to a GCM (HadGEM3-A). It is shown that RWR can be calculated using outputs from an atmospheric GCM provided the satellite clear-sky sampling bias is incorporated. Both offline JULES and HadGEM3-A reproduce the observed seasonal and regional RWR variations, but with weak springtime RWRs in central Europe. This coincides with sustained bare soil evaporation (Ebs) during dry spells, reflecting previous site-level JULES studies in Europe. To assess whether RWR can discriminate between surface descriptions, the bare soil surface conductance and the vegetation root profile are revised to limit Ebs. This increases RWR by increasing the occurrence of soil moisture limited dry spells, yielding more realistic springtime RWRs as a function of antecedent precipitation but poorer relationships in summer. This study demonstrates the potential for using satellite LST to assess evaporation regimes in climate models

Evaluating the performance of hydrological models via cross-spectral analysis: case study of the Thames Basin, United Kingdom

Nine distributed hydrological models, forced with common meteorological inputs, simulated naturalised daily discharge from the Thames Basin for 1963-2001. While model-dependent evaporative losses are critical for modelling mean discharge, multiple physical processes at many time scales influence the variability and timing of discharge. Here we advocate the use of cross-spectral analysis to measure how the average amplitude, and independently the average phase, of modelled discharge differ from observed discharge at daily to decadal time scales. Simulation of the spectral properties of the model discharge via numerical manipulation of precipitation confirms that modelled transformation involves runoff generation and routing that amplify the annual cycle, while subsurface storage and routing of runoff between grid boxes introduces most autocorrelation and delays. Too much or too little modelled evaporation affects discharge variability as do the capacity and time constants of modelled stores. Additionally the performance of specific models would improve if four issues were tackled: a) non-sinusoidal annual variations in model discharge (prolonged low baseflow and shortened high baseflow, 3 models), b) excessive attenuation of high frequency variability (3 models), c) excessive short-term variability in winter half years but too little variability in summer half years (2 models) and d) introduction of phase delays at the annual scale only during runoff generation (3 models) or only during routing (1 model). Cross-spectral analysis reveals how re-runs of one model using alternative methods of runoff generation - designed to improve performance at the weekly to monthly time scales - degraded performance at the annual scale. The cross-spectral approach facilitates hydrological model diagnoses and development

Contrasting contributions of surface hydrological pathways in convection permitting and parameterised climate simulations over Africa and their feedbacks on the atmosphere

The partitioning of rainfall at the land surface into interception, infiltration and surface runoff plays an important role in the water cycle as it controls the time scale at which water returns to the atmosphere. Rainfall intensity is of crucial importance to this partition. High resolution convection permitting models significantly improve simulated sub-daily rainfall intensity distributions, in particular those associated with convective rainfall in the tropics. Here we compare the land surface hydrological response in a pair of 10-year simulations over an African domain performed using the Met Office Unified Model: a typical configuration using parameterised convection operating at 25 km and the second a high resolution convection permitting simulation at 4.5 km with the parametrized convection switched off. Overall pan-African interception in the convection permitting scheme is 70% lower, whilst surface runoff is 43% higher than the parameterized convection model. These changes are driven by less frequent, but more intense rainfall with a 25% increase in rainfall above 20 mm h−1 in the 4.5 km model. The parameterised scheme has a ~ 50% canopy water contribution to evaporative fraction which is negligible in the convection permitting scheme. Conversely, the convection permitting scheme has higher throughfall and infiltration leading to higher soil moisture in the weeks following rain resulting in a 30–50% decrease in the daytime sensible heat flux. We examine how important the sub-grid rainfall parameterisation in the model is for the differences between the two configurations. We show how, switching a convective parameterisation off can substantially impact land surface behaviour

Global observational diagnosis of soil moisture control on the land surface energy balance

An understanding of where and how strongly the surface energy budget is constrained by soil moisture is hindered by a lack of large-scale observations, and this contributes to uncertainty in climate models. Here we present a new approach combining satellite observations of land surface temperature and rainfall.We derive a Relative Warming Rate (RWR) diagnostic, which is a measure of how rapidly the land warms relative to the overlying atmosphere during 10 day dry spells. In our dry spell composites, 73% of the land surface between 60°S and 60°N warms faster than the atmosphere, indicating water-stressed conditions, and increases in sensible heat. Higher RWRs are found for shorter vegetation and bare soil than for tall, deep-rooted vegetation, due to differences in aerodynamic and hydrological properties. We show how the variation of RWR with antecedent rainfall helps to identify different evaporative regimes in the major nonpolar climate zones

Global multimodel analysis of drought in runoff for the second half of the twentieth century

During the past decades large-scale models have been developed to simulate global and continental terrestrial water cycles. It is an open question whether these models are suitable to capture hydrological drought, in terms of runoff, on global scale. A multi-model ensemble analysis was carried out to evaluate if ten of such large-scale models agree on major drought events during the second half of the 20th century. Time series of monthly precipitation, monthly total runoff from ten global hydrological models, and their ensemble median have been used to identify drought. Temporal development of area in drought for various regions across the globe was investigated. Model spread was largest in regions with low runoff and smallest in regions with high runoff. In vast regions, correlation between runoff drought derived from the models and meteorological drought was found to be low. This indicated that models add information to the signal derived from precipitation and that runoff drought cannot directly be determined from precipitation data alone in global drought analyses with a constant aggregation period. However, duration and spatial extent of major drought events differed between models. Some models showed a fast runoff response to rainfall, which led to deviations from reported drought events in slowly responding hydrological systems. By using an ensemble of models, this fast runoff response was partly overcome and delay in drought propagating from meteorological drought to drought in runoff was included. Finally, an ensemble of models also allows to consider uncertainty associated with individual model structures

A Pan-African Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation with the Met Office Unified Model: CP4-Africa

This is the final version. Available on open access from the American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this recordA convection-permitting multiyear regional climate simulation using the Met Office Unified Model has been run for the first time on an Africa-wide domain. The model has been run as part of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) Improving Model Processes for African Climate (IMPALA) project, and its configuration, domain, and forcing data are described here in detail. The model [Pan-African Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation with the Met Office UM (CP4-Africa)] uses a 4.5-km horizontal grid spacing at the equator and is run without a convection parameterization, nested within a global atmospheric model driven by observations at the sea surface, which does include a convection scheme. An additional regional simulation, with identical resolution and physical parameterizations to the global model, but with the domain, land surface, and aerosol climatologies of CP4-Africa, has been run to aid in the understanding of the differences between the CP4-Africa and global model, in particular to isolate the impact of the convection parameterization and resolution. The effect of enforcing moisture conservation in CP4-Africa is described and its impact on reducing extreme precipitation values is assessed. Preliminary results from the first five years of the CP4-Africa simulation show substantial improvements in JJA average rainfall compared to the parameterized convection models, with most notably a reduction in the persistent dry bias in West Africa, giving an indication of the benefits to be gained from running a convection-permitting simulation over the whole African continent.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Effects on early monsoon rainfall in West Africa due to recent deforestation in a convection-permitting ensemble

Tropical deforestation can have a significant effect on climate, but research attention has been directed mostly towards Amazonian deforestation. The southern part of West Africa (a region dependent on rain-fed agriculture and vulnerable to droughts and flooding) has seen significant deforestation since the 1950s. Many previous tropical deforestation studies have used idealized and exaggerated deforestation scenarios and parameterized convection models. In this study we estimate for the first time realistic historical deforestation from the Land-Use Harmonization dataset in West Africa and simulate the impacts in a 5 d ensemble forecast in June using a convection-permitting regional climate model. We find that sensible heat flux increases at the expense of latent heat flux in most deforested regions, and rainfall increases by an average of 8.4 % over deforested pixels from 18:00–06:00 UTC, whereas changes are much less pronounced during the day. Over large areas of deforestation approx. 300 km inland (e.g. west Guinea) the roughness-length and thermally enhanced convergence during the afternoon and evening occurs over the deforested areas resulting in increases in rainfall with little impact from reduced daytime humidity. In areas of coastal deforestation (e.g. Côte d'Ivoire), increased winds drive the sea breeze convection inland, resulting in evening rainfall reductions over the deforested area but increases further inland, in line with observations. We suggest our results would not be replicated in parameterized convection models, which are known to struggle with capturing peak convective activity in the late afternoon and long-lived nocturnal rainfall and with reproducing observed surface–rainfall feedbacks