Ionosphere sounding for pre-seismic anomalies identification (INSPIRE): results of the project and perspectives for the short-term earthquake forecast

The INSPIRE project was dedicated to the study of physical processes and their effects in ionosphere which could be determined as earthquake precursors together with detailed description of the methodology of ionospheric pre-seismic anomalies definition. It was initiated by ESA and carried out by an international consortium. The full set of key parameters of the ionospheric plasma was selected based on the retrospective analysis of the ground-based and satellite measurements of pre-seismic anomalies. Using this classification the multi-instrumental database of worldwide relevant ionospheric measurements (ionosonde and GNSS networks, LEO-satellites with in situ probes including DEMETER and FORMOSAT/COSMIC ROC missions) was developed for the time intervals related to selected test cases. As statistical processing shows, the main ionospheric precursors appear approximately 5 days before the earthquake within the time interval of 30 days before and 15 days after an earthquake event. The physical mechanisms of the ionospheric pre-seismic anomalies generation from ground to the ionosphere altitudes were formulated within framework of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere- Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. The processes of precursor’s development were analyzed starting from the crustal movements, radon emission and air ionization, thermal and atmospheric anomalies, electric field and electromagnetic emissions generation, variations of the ionospheric plasma parameters, in particular vertical TEC and vertical profiles of the electron concentration. The assessment of the LAIC model performance with definition of performance criteria for earthquake forecasting probability has been done in statistical and numerical simulation domains of the Global Electric Circuit. The numerical simulations of the earthquake preparation process as an open complex system from start of the final stage of earthquake preparation up to the final point–main shock confirms that in the temporal domain the ionospheric precursors are one of the most late in the sequence of precursors. The general algorithm for the identification of the ionospheric precursors was formalized which also takes into account the external Space Weather factors able to generate the false alarms. The importance of the special stable pattern called the “precursor mask” was highlighted which is based on self-similarity of pre-seismic ionospheric variations. The role of expert decision in pre-seismic anomalies interpretation for generation of seismic warning is important as well. The algorithm performance of the LAIC seismo-ionospheric effect detection module has been demonstrated using the L’Aquila 2009 earthquake as a case study. The results of INSPIRE project have demonstrated that the ionospheric anomalies registered before the strong earthquakes could be used as reliable precursors. The detailed classification of the pre-seismic anomalies was presented in different regions of the ionosphere and signatures of the pre-seismic anomalies as detected by ground and satellite based instruments were described what clarified methodology of the precursor’s identification from ionospheric multi-instrumental measurements. Configuration for the dedicated multiobservation experiment and satellite payload was proposed for the future implementation of the INSPIRE project results. In this regard the multi-instrument set can be divided into two groups: space equipment and ground-based support, which could be used for realtime monitoring. Together with scientific and technical tasks the set of political, logistic and administrative problems (including certification of approaches by seismological community, juridical procedures by the governmental authorities) should be resolved for the real earthquake forecast effectuation.In years 2014–2016 works were supported by the ESA Project “INSPIRE, ionosphere Sounding for Pre-seismic anomalies Identification Research (INSPIRE)” nr 4000,111,456/14/NL/ MV. The work is supported by the National Center for Research and Development, Poland, through Grant ARTEMIS (decision no. DWM/PL-CHN/97/2019, WPC1/ ARTEMIS/2019); The authors thank also the Ministry of Science and Higher Education (MSHE), Poland for granting funds for the Polish contribution to the International LOFAR Telescope “(MSHE decision no. DIR/ WK/2016/2017/05–1)” and for maintenance of the LOFAR PL-612 Baldy (MSHE decisions: no. 59/E-383/SPUB/SP/ 2019.1). This work is supported by the National Science Centre, Poland, through Grants 2017/25/B/ST10/00479 and 2017/27/B/ST10/02190.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Global monitoring of ionospheric weather by GIRO and GNSS data fusion

Prompt and accurate imaging of the ionosphere is essential to space weather services, given a broad spectrum of applications that rely on ionospherically propagating radio signals. As the 3D spatial extent of the ionosphere is vast and covered only fragmentarily, data fusion is a strong candidate for solving imaging tasks. Data fusion has been used to blend models and observations for the integrated and consistent views of geosystems. In space weather scenarios, low latency of the sensor data availability is one of the strongest requirements that limits the selection of potential datasets for fusion. Since remote plasma sensing instrumentation for ionospheric weather is complex, scarce, and prone to unavoidable data noise, conventional 3D-var assimilative schemas are not optimal. We describe a novel substantially 4D data fusion service based on near-real-time data feeds from Global Ionosphere Radio Observatory (GIRO) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) called GAMBIT (Global Assimilative Model of the Bottomside Ionosphere with Topside estimate). GAMBIT operates with a few-minute latency, and it releases, among other data products, the anomaly maps of the effective slab thickness (EST) obtained by fusing GIRO and GNSS data. The anomaly EST mapping aids understanding of the vertical plasma restructuring during disturbed conditionsPeer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Interferometric imaging of the type IIIb and U radio bursts observed with LOFAR on 22 August 2017

Context. The Sun is the source of different types of radio bursts that are associated with solar flares, for example. Among the most frequently observed phenomena are type III solar bursts. Their radio images at low frequencies (below 100 MHz) are relatively poorly studied due to the limitations of legacy radio telescopes.Aims. We study the general characteristics of types IIIb and U with stria structure solar radio bursts in the frequency range of 20-80 MHz, in particular the source size and evolution in different altitudes, as well as the velocity and energy of electron beams responsible for their generation.Methods. In this work types IIIb and U with stria structure radio bursts are analyzed using data from the LOFAR telescope including dynamic spectra and imaging observations, as well as data taken in the X-ray range (GOES and RHESSI satellites) and in the extreme ultraviolet (SDO satellite).Results. In this study we determined the source size limited by the actual shape of the contour at particular frequencies of type IIIb and U solar bursts in a relatively wide frequency band from 20 to 80 MHz. Two of the bursts seem to appear at roughly the same place in the studied active region and their source sizes are similar. It is different in the case of another burst, which seems to be related to another part of the magnetic field structure in this active region. The velocities of the electron beams responsible for the generation of the three bursts studied here were also found to be different.Peer reviewe

Towards the possibility to combine LOFAR and GNSS measurements to sense ionospheric irregularities

Inhomogeneities within the ionospheric plasma density affect trans-ionospheric radio signals, causing radio wave scintillation in the amplitude and phase of the signals. The amount of scintillation induced by ionospheric irregularities typically decreases with the radio wave frequency. As the ionosphere affects a variety of technological systems (e.g., civil aviation, financial operations) as well as low-frequency radio astronomy observations, it is important to detect and monitor iono- spheric effects with higher accuracy than currently available. Here, a novel methodology for the detection and characterization of ionospheric irregularities is established on the basis of LOFAR scintillation measurements at VHF that takes into account of the lack of ergodicity in the intensity fluctuations induced by scintillation. The methodology estimates the S 4 scintillation index originating from irregularities with spatial scales in the inertial sub-range of electron density fluctuations in the ionosphere. The methodology is illustrated by means of observations that were collected through the Polish LOFAR stations located in Bałdy, Borówiec and Łazy: its validation was carried out by comparing LOFAR VHF scintillation observations with independent GNSS observations that were collected through a high-rate receiver located near the LOFAR station in Bałdy as well as through geodetic receivers from the Polish ASG-EUPOS network. Two case stud- ies are presented: 31 March 2017 and 28 September 2017. The comparison between LOFAR S4 observations and independent ionospheric measurements of both scintillation and rate of change of TEC from GNSS reveals that the sensitivity of LOFAR and GNSS to ionospheric structures is different as a consequence of the frequency dependency of radio wave scintillation. Furthermore, it can be noticed that observations of LOFAR VHF scintillation can be utilised to detect plasma structures forming in the mid-latitude ionosphere, including electron density gradients occurring over spatial scales that are not necessarily detected through traditional GNSS measurements: the detection of all spatial scales is important for a correct monitoring and modelling of ionospheric processes. Hence, the different sensitivity of LOFAR to ionospheric structures, in addition to traditional GNSS ionospheric measurements, allows to expand the knowledge of ionospheric processes

Towards cooperative global mapping of the ionosphere: fusion feasibility for igs and iri with global climate vtec maps

Recommendations of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) Workshop 2017 in Taoyuan City, Taiwan and International GNSS Service (IGS) Workshop 2018 in Wuhan, China included establishment of an ionosphere mapping service that would fuse measurements from two independent sensor networks: IGS permanent GNSS receivers providing the vertical total electron content (VTEC) measurements and ionosondes of the Global Ionosphere Radio Observatory (GIRO) that compute the bottomside vertical profiles of the ionospheric plasma density. Using available GAMBIT software at GIRO, we introduced new VTEC products to its data roster: previously unavailable global average (climate) maps of VTEC and slab thickness based on climatological capabilities of IRI. Incorporation of the VTEC and t maps into the GAMBIT Explorer environment provided data analysts with nearly 10-year history of the reference average VTEC records and opened access to the GAMBIT toolkit for evaluation and validation of the t computations. This result is the first step towards establishing an infrastructure and the data workflow to provide GAMBIT users with the low latency and consistent quality and usability of the ionospheric weather-climate specifications. Combination of IGS-provided VTEC and GIRO-provided peak density of F2 layer NmF2 allows ground-based evaluation of the equivalent slab thickness t, a derived property of the near-Earth plasma that characterizes the skewness of its vertical profile up to the GNSS spacecraft altitudes.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version