Synoptic-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Boreal Canada Summer Drought Variability of the Past Three Centuries

Five independent multicentury reconstructions of the July Canadian Drought Code and one reconstruction of the mean July-August temperature were developed using a network of 120 well-replicated tree-ring chronologies covering the area of the eastern Boreal Plains to the eastern Boreal Shield of Canada. The reconstructions were performed using 54 time-varying reconstruction submodels that explained up to 50% of the regional drought variance during the period of 1919-84. Spatial correlation fields on the six reconstructions revealed that the meridional component of the climate system from central to eastern Canada increased since the mid-nineteenth century. The most obvious change was observed in the decadal scale of variability. Using 500-hPa geopotential height and wind composites, this zonal to meridional transition was interpreted as a response to an amplification of long waves flowing over the eastern North Pacific into boreal Canada, from approximately 1851 to 1940. Composites with NOAA Extended Reconstructed SSTs indicated a coupling between the meridional component and tropical and North Pacific SST for a period covering at least the past 150 yr, supporting previous findings of a summertime global ocean-atmospherel-and surface coupling. This change in the global atmospheric circulation could be a key element toward understanding the observed temporal changes in the Canadian boreal forest fire regimes over the past 150 yr

A review of machine learning applications in wildfire science and management

Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML in wildfire science and management. Our objective is to improve awareness of ML among wildfire scientists and managers, as well as illustrate the challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to data scientists. We first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date, and then review their use in wildfire science within six problem domains: 1) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; 2) fire weather and climate change; 3) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; 4) fire behavior prediction; 5) fire effects; and 6) fire management. We also discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches and identify opportunities for future advances in wildfire science and management within a data science context. We identified 298 relevant publications, where the most frequently used ML methods included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. There exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods (e.g., deep learning and agent based learning) in wildfire science. However, despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods requires sophisticated knowledge for their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management community plays an active role in providing relevant, high quality data for use by practitioners of ML methods.Comment: 83 pages, 4 figures, 3 table

Variability in fire frequency and forest composition in Canada's Southeastern Boreal Forest: A challenge for sustainable forest management

Because some consequences of fire resemble the effects of industrial forest harvesting, forest management is often considered as a disturbance having effects similar to those of natural disturbances. Although the analogy between forest management and fire disturbance in boreal ecosystems has some merit, it is important to recognize that it has limitations. First, normal forest rotations truncate the natural forest stand age distribution and eliminate over-mature forests from the landscape. Second, in the boreal mixedwoods, natural forest dynamics following fire may involve a gradual replacement of stands of intolerant broadleaf species by mixedwood and then softwood stands, whereas current silvicultural practices promote successive rotations of similarly composed stands. Third, the large fluctuations observed in fire frequency during the Holocene limit the use of a single fire cycle to characterize natural fire regimes. Short fire cycles generally described for boreal ecosystems do not appear to be universal; rather, shifts between short and long fire cycles have been observed. These shifts imply important changes in forest composition at the landscape and regional levels. All of these factors create a natural variability in forest composition that should be maintained by forest managers concerned with the conservation of biodiversity. One avenue is to develop silvicultural techniques that maintain a spectrum of forest compositions over the landscape

Nucleation and growth kinetics of sodium chloride crystallization from water and deuterium oxide

Despite the ubiquity of crystallization of sodium chloride (NaCl) throughout history, few detailed, well-controlled quantitative studies of the kinetics of NaCl crystallization have been published. Taking advantage of recent advances in technology such as image analysis for crystallite counting and ’high-throughput’ techniques for characterizing the highly stochastic nucleation process, we report on a detailed examination of primary and secondary nucleation kinetics of NaCl, crystallizing from solution, in water (H2O) and in the isotopologue D2O. We show that crystallization conditions, especially sample agitation, have a very  significant effect on crystallization kinetics. We also critically evaluate the workflow employed and the associated nucleation/growth models used to interpret its results, comparing outcomes from NaCl with those fromorganic crystal systems with which the workflow was originally developed and demonstrated. For primary nucleation, some key assumptions of the workflow and data interpretation are called into question for the NaCl system. Even so it can still provide direct measurements of secondary nucleation and crystal growth from crystal counting and sizing, providing valuable characterisation under consistent controlled conditions to enhance and ’bring up to date’ the literature on the crystallization of this ubiquitous system

Nucleation and growth kinetics of sodium chloride crystallization from water and deuterium oxide

Despite the ubiquity of the crystallization of sodium chloride (NaCl) throughout history, few detailed, well-controlled quantitative studies of the kinetics of NaCl crystallization have been published. Taking advantage of recent advances in technology such as image analysis for crystallite counting and ‘high-throughput’ techniques for characterizing the highly stochastic nucleation process, we report on a detailed examination of the primary and secondary nucleation kinetics of NaCl, crystallized from solution, in water (H 2O) and in the isotopologue D 2O. We show that crystallization conditions, especially sample agitation, have a very significant effect on crystallization kinetics. We also critically evaluate the workflow employed and the associated nucleation/growth models used to interpret its results, comparing outcomes from NaCl with those from organic crystal systems with which the workflow was originally developed and demonstrated. For primary nucleation, some key assumptions of the workflow and data interpretation are called into question for the NaCl system. Even so, it can still provide direct measurements of secondary nucleation and crystal growth from crystal counting and sizing, providing valuable characterization under consistent controlled conditions to enhance and ‘bring up to date’ the literature on the crystallization of this ubiquitous system

High speed synchrotron X-ray imaging studies of the ultrasound shockwave and enhanced flow during metal solidification processes

The highly dynamic behaviour of ultrasonic bubble implosion in liquid metal, the multiphase liquid metal flow containing bubbles and particles, and the interaction between ultrasonic waves and semisolid phases during solidification of metal were studied in situ using the complementary ultrafast and high speed synchrotron X-ray imaging facilities housed respectively at the Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory, US, and Diamond Light Source, UK. Real-time ultrafast X-ray imaging of 135,780 frames per second (fps) revealed that ultrasonic bubble implosion in a liquid Bi-8 wt. %Zn alloy can occur in a single wave period (30 kHz), and the effective region affected by the shockwave at implosion was 3.5 times the original bubble diameter. Furthermore, ultrasound bubbles in liquid metal move faster than the primary particles, and the velocity of bubbles is 70 ~ 100% higher than that of the primary particles present in the same locations close to the sonotrode. Ultrasound waves can very effectively create a strong swirling flow in a semisolid melt in less than one second. The energetic flow can detach solid particles from the liquid-solid interface and redistribute them back into the bulk liquid very effectively

Electrical studies of Barkhausen switching noise in ferroelectric PZT : critical exponents and temperature dependence

This work at St Andrews was supported by EPSRC grant EP/P024637/1. EKHS thanks EPSRC for support.Crackling noise of ferroelectric lead zirconate titanate samples during ferroelectric switching is demonstrated to be compatible with avalanche statistics. The peaks of the slew rate (time derivative of current dI/dt squared), defined as "jerks," were statistically analyzed and shown to obey power laws. The critical exponent obtained is 1.64 ± 0.15, in agreement with predictions from avalanche theory. The exponent is independent of temperature within experimental error margins.PostprintPeer reviewe