Fertility response to natural disasters : the case of three high mortality earthquakes

The event of a natural disaster, and being directly affected by it, brings a large shock to life-cycle outcomes. In addition to the replacement effects of higher fertility following a disaster that caused high mortality, a positive fertility response may be induced as children can be used to supplement household income. This paper analyzes three high mortality earthquakes: Gujarat, India, in 2001; North-West Frontier, Pakistan, in 2005; and Izmit, Turkey, in 1999. There is evidence of a positive fertility response to exposure to these large-scale natural disasters in addition to the response to child mortality. The results in this study are consistent with those of other studies that also find a positive fertility response following exposure to a disaster.Population Policies,Natural Disasters,Hazard Risk Management,Youth and Governance,Street Children

Endogenous Longevity and Economic Growth

In a two period overlapping generations model of endogenous longevity and economic growth, individuals choose to invest in health and education. The investments are costly in terms of foregone first period consumption and the benefit is in the second period where health has the effect of increasing the probability of survival, and education investment will bring higher income. These investments are risky as survival through period two, when the payoffs can be had, is not certain. Individuals with varying degrees of risk aversion will choose the ordering in which they invest in health and education. It is only when investment in education is achieved that an economy will experience endogenous growth.Endogenous Longevity, Endogenous Growth, Health, Risk

The Association of Contraceptive Use, Non-Use, and Failure with Child Health

Objective: To examine the association of contraceptive use in the interpregnancy interval with subsequent child health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. Design: A cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative household samples was performed. A modified Poisson regression model was used to estimate unadjusted and adjusted relative risk ratios for high prevalence outcomes. Setting: Low- and middle-income countries. Population: Births to women aged 12-49 years for which this birth occurred 12-79 months prior to the interview were included. The sample for analysing infant mortality was comprised of 453,795 children from 35 low- and middle-income countries across 67 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 1990 and 2011.Main Outcome Measures: Infant mortality, stunting, underweight, wasting, diarrhoea, and anaemia.Results: Contraceptive use in the interpregnancy interval, even if contraceptive failure resulted in birth, had a positive effect on all child health outcomes compared to non-use of contraception in the interpregnancy interval. The positive effect of contraceptive use was the lengthening of the interpregnancy interval, but it also had a direct positive effect on child health, independent of birth interval. Conclusions: Extending the interval between births had a positive effect on child health outcomes, and contraceptive use had a positive effect on child health independent of the birth spacing effect. Additionally, contraceptive failure did not adversely affect child health outcomes

Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

In 1994 the World Bank called East Asia's strong economic growth performance a "miracle". Trade openness, high savings rates, human capital accumulation, and macroeconomic policy only explained part of this growth performance; the remainder was left unexplained. Research in the ensuing years has shown that when demographic change in East Asia is taken into account, the miracle is explained. These earlier studies used the 1960-1990 sample period, but since 1990 Asia has undergone major economic reforms in response to financial crises and other factors. Moreover, rapid demographic change has continued in East Asia, and in Asia more generally, with fertility rates falling below replacement in many of these countries. In this paper, we re-examine the role of the demographic transition in explaining cross-country differences in economic growth, with a particular focus on East Asia. With the working-age share beginning to decline in many Asian countries, innovation and flexibility in the labor market will be required for them to continue to enjoy the high rates of economic growth they have experienced to date.Global health, fertility, Asia, labor, Aging, Economics, Demography.

Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia

The decline in the total fertility rate between 1960 and 2005, coupled with an increase in life expectancy and the dynamic evolution of past variation in birth and death rates, is producing a significant shift in age structure in Asia. The age distribution has shifted from one with a high youth-age population share to one with a high old-age population share. We illustrate the role of these separate forces in shaping the age distribution. We also argue that the economic consequences of population aging depend on behavioral responses to the shift in age structure: the female labor force participation response to the decline in fertility, child quality/quantity trade-off in the face of the fertility decline, savings adjustments to an increase in life expectancy, and social security distortions insofar as the pace of life expectancy improvements is faster than the pace of policy adjustments. We estimate the association between old- and youth-age population shares and economic growth. The results suggest that population aging may not significantly impede economic performance in Asia in the long run.Global health, fertility, Asia, labor, Aging.

Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend

We estimate the effect of fertility on female labor force participation in a cross-country panel data set using abortion legislation as an instrument for fertility. We find a large negative effect of the fertility rate on female labor force participation. The direct effect is concentrated among those aged 20–39, but we find that cohort participation is persistent over time giving an effect among older women. We present a simulation model of the effect of fertility reduction on income per capita, taking into account these changes in female labor force participation as well as population numbers and age structure.

Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?

Increases in the proportion of the working age population can yield a "demographic dividend" that enhances the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters of an economic growth model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 and investigate whether the inclusion of age structure improves the model's forecasts for the period 1980 to 2000. We find that including age structure improves the forecast, although there is evidence of parameter instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown in the second period. We use the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000 to 2020.

Demographic Change, Institutional Settings, and Labor Supply

This paper analyzes cross-country panel data to examine the effect of key institutional features of social security systems on male labor supply. Our findings indicate that the labor supply of older males covaries negatively with replacement rates and system coverage, with the replacement rate effects being stronger for pay-as-you-go systems than for fully funded systems. The results also reveal a surprisingly small and often negative response of the labor supply of older males to improvements in life expectancy.Global health, labor, Aging, Economics, Demography.