Mexico’s climate pledge: A credible commitment?

The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate the credibility of Mexico’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) and to identify areas for policy intervention that can strengthen the credibility of the climate pledges. Using Mexico as a case study, the research tested and further developed an initial credibility assessment framework for a country-level analysis to evaluate the credibility of climate pledges to reduce carbon emissions. The study is qualitative in nature based on in-depth interviews to stakeholders. The final framework consists of ten determinants, including (1) the legislative and policy basis of the country; (2) the process behind the INDC; (3) the capacity of available institutions for climate-related issues; (4) the pressure from private groups; (5) the history of international engagement; (6) the effectiveness of policies and programs in place; (7) the allocation of public resources for climate change action; (8) the leadership of individuals in power; (9) the continuity of climate change policy; and, (10) the public opinion on climate change. The study reveals that the credibility of the climate commitment in the Mexican context is very problematic. Based on the ten determinants assessed, only four determinants support the credibility of Mexico’s commitment. Consequently, stakeholder engagement and transparency of the information are the cornerstone for the successful implementation of a climate commitment. Collaborative partnerships will be key for the Mexican government due to the difficult economic context. Moreover, a clear and detailed roadmap for the implementation of the INDC, together with supportive legislation and policies, is absolutely necessary to overcome many of the challenges found in some determinants. If Mexico is able to make the necessary changes to enhance credibility, it will become a leader and example for other developing countries to contribute to climate action