Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species

Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years) scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5–30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and ‘increased grazing’ (the opposite conversion) the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the ‘reduced grazing’ scenario were nonlinear. ‘Scenario-led’ landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.This study was part of a PhD studentship funded through the World Pheasant Association (from the Henry Angest Foundation, Howman Charitable Foundation, Mactaggart Third Charitable Trust, PF Charitable Trust and AF Wallace Charity Trust) and the Dalton Research Institute

Non-territorial GPS-tagged golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos at two Scottish wind farms: Avoidance influenced by preferred habitat distribution, wind speed and blade motion status

From PLOS via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: received 2020-09-22, collection 2021, accepted 2021-06-21, epub 2021-08-05Publication status: PublishedFunder: natural researchFunder: the royal society for the protection of birdsFunder: snhFunder: roy dennis wildlife foundationFunder: ruth tingayFunder: sse renewablesFunder: scottishpower renewables; funder-id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100012017Wind farms can have two broad potential adverse effects on birds via antagonistic processes: displacement from the vicinity of turbines (avoidance), or death through collision with rotating turbine blades. These effects may not be mutually exclusive. Using detailed data from 99 turbines at two wind farms in central Scotland and thousands of GPS-telemetry data from dispersing golden eagles, we tested three hypotheses. Before-and-after-operation analyses supported the hypothesis of avoidance: displacement was reduced at turbine locations in more preferred habitat and with more preferred habitat nearby. After-operation analyses (i.e. from the period when turbines were operational) showed that at higher wind speeds and in highly preferred habitat eagles were less wary of turbines with motionless blades: rejecting our second hypothesis. Our third hypothesis was supported, since at higher wind speeds eagles flew closer to operational turbines; especially–once more–turbines in more preferred habitat. After operation, eagles effectively abandoned inner turbine locations, and flight line records close to rotor blades were rare. While our study indicated that whole-wind farm functional habitat loss through avoidance was the substantial adverse impact, we make recommendations on future wind farm design to minimise collision risk further. These largely entail developers avoiding outer turbine locations which are in and surrounded by swathes of preferred habitat. Our study illustrates the insights which detailed case studies of large raptors at wind farms can bring and emphasises that the balance between avoidance and collision can have several influences

Evaluation of the late life disability instrument in the lifestyle interventions and independence for elders pilot (LIFE-P) study

Background: The late life disability instrument (LLDI) was developed to assess limitations in instrumental and management roles using a small and restricted sample. In this paper we examine the measurement properties of the LLDI using data from the Lifestyle Intervention and Independence for Elders Pilot (Life-P) study. Methods: LIFE-P participants, aged 70-89 years, were at elevated risk of disability. The 424 participants were enrolled at the Cooper Institute, Stanford University, University of Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest University. Physical activity and successful aging health education interventions were compared after 12-months of follow-up. Using factor analysis, we determined whether the LLDI\u27s factor structure was comparable with that reported previously. We further examined how each item related to measured disability using item response theory (IRT). Results: The factor structure for the limitation domain within the LLDI in the LIFE-P study did not corroborate previous findings. However, the factor structure using the abbreviated version was supported. Social and personal role factors were identified. IRT analysis revealed that each item in the social role factor provided a similar level of information, whereas the items in the personal role factor tended to provide different levels of information. Conclusions: Within the context of community-based clinical intervention research in aged populations, an abbreviated version of the LLDI performed better than the full 16-item version. In addition, the personal subscale would benefit from additional research using IRT

Both habitat change and local lek structure influence patterns of spatial loss and recovery in a black grouse population

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10144-015-0484-3Land use change is a major driver of declines in wildlife populations. Where human economic or recreational interests and wildlife share landscapes this problem is exacerbated. Changes in UK black grouse Tetrao tetrix populations are thought to have been strongly influenced by upland land use change. In a long-studied population within Perthshire, lek persistence is positively correlated with lek size, and remaining leks clustered most strongly within the landscape when the population is lowest, suggesting that there may be a demographic and/or spatial context to the reaction of the population to habitat changes. Hierarchical cluster analysis of lek locations revealed that patterns of lek occupancy when the population was declining were different to those during the later recovery period. Response curves from lek-habitat models developed using MaxEnt for periods with a declining population, low population, and recovering population were consistent across years for most habitat measures. We found evidence linking lek persistence with habitat quality changes and more leks which appeared between 1994 and 2008 were in improving habitat than those which disappeared during the same period. Generalised additive models (GAMs) identified changes in woodland and starting lek size as being important indicators of lek survival between declining and low/recovery periods. There may also have been a role for local densities in explaining recovery since the population low point. Persistence of black grouse leks was influenced by habitat, but changes in this alone did not fully account for black grouse declines. Even when surrounded by good quality habitat, leks can be susceptible to extirpation due to isolation

Hen Harrier Circus cyaneus nest sites on the Isle of Mull are associated with habitat mosaics and constrained by topography

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Bird Study on 07/02/2018, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00063657.2017.1421611Capsule: Hen Harrier on the Isle of Mull, UK, are associated with habitat mosaics consisting of moorland, scrub and forestry but avoid grazed land, suggesting that forested habitats could be managed sympathetically for Hen Harrier in the future should the current UK population increase. Aims: To use distribution modelling to investigate nesting habitat associations using a long term dataset for Hen Harrier on Mull. Methods: We develop area-interaction models using a LASSO penalty to explore the distribution of 102 Hen Harrier nest sites in relation to habitat and topography. Our model is then successfully validated in tests using data for 70 nest sites from subsequent years. Results: Our model is effective in predicting suitable areas for Hen Harrier nest sites and indicates that Hen Harriers on Mull are found in habitat mosaics below 200 m asl. Hen Harrier nest intensity is positively associated with increasing proportions of moorland and scrub, open canopy forestry and closed canopy forestry. Nest intensity is negatively associated with increasing proportions of grazed land. Conclusion: Hen Harrier avoid grazed areas but are relatively tolerant of other habitat combinations. These findings are supported by previous observations of Hen Harrier habitat use and have implications for the recovery of some Hen Harrier SPA populations and future forest management. Open canopy forest and forest mosaics could potentially be incorporated into landscape-scale conservation plans for Hen Harriers using the population in Mull as an example

Scenario-led habitat modelling of land use change impacts on key species

© 2015 Gearyet al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years) scenarios for the 800 km 2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion) the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of opencanopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse

A bridge between worlds: understanding network structure to understand change strategy

A number of scholars are exploring district and site relations in organizational change efforts in the larger policy context of No Child Left Behind. These studies suggest the importance of the central office as a support to the work of reform and offer strategies for building relations between district offices and sites in order to implement and sustain change efforts. What is frequently overlooked in these studies is that organizational change efforts are often socially constructed. Therefore, examining the underlying social networks may provide insight into structures that support or constrain efforts at change. This exploratory case study uses social network analysis and interviews to examine the communication and knowledge network structures of central office and site leaders in an ‘in need of improvement’ district facing sanctions under No Child Left Behind. Findings indicate sparse ties among and between school site and central office administrators, as well as a centralized network structure that may constrain the exchange of complex information and ultimately inhibit efforts at change

Dimethyl fumarate in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) inhibits inflammasome-mediated inflammation and has been proposed as a treatment for patients hospitalised with COVID-19. This randomised, controlled, open-label platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing multiple treatments in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 (NCT04381936, ISRCTN50189673). In this assessment of DMF performed at 27 UK hospitals, adults were randomly allocated (1:1) to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus DMF. The primary outcome was clinical status on day 5 measured on a seven-point ordinal scale. Secondary outcomes were time to sustained improvement in clinical status, time to discharge, day 5 peripheral blood oxygenation, day 5 C-reactive protein, and improvement in day 10 clinical status. Between 2 March 2021 and 18 November 2021, 713 patients were enroled in the DMF evaluation, of whom 356 were randomly allocated to receive usual care plus DMF, and 357 to usual care alone. 95% of patients received corticosteroids as part of routine care. There was no evidence of a beneficial effect of DMF on clinical status at day 5 (common odds ratio of unfavourable outcome 1.12; 95% CI 0.86-1.47; p = 0.40). There was no significant effect of DMF on any secondary outcome

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat