A comparison of two identification and tracking methods for polar lows

In this study, we compare two different cyclone-tracking algorithms to detect North Atlantic polar lows, which are very intense mesoscale cyclones. Both approaches include spatial filtering, detection, tracking and constraints specific to polar lows. The first method uses digital bandpass-filtered mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fieldsin the spatial range of 200�600 km and is especially designed for polar lows. The second method also uses a bandpass filter but is based on the discrete cosine transforms (DCT) and can be applied to MSLP and vorticity fields. The latter was originally designed for cyclones in general and has been adapted to polar lows for this study. Both algorithms are applied to the same regional climate model output fields from October 1993 to September 1995 produced from dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Comparisons between these two methods show that different filters lead to different numbers and locations of tracks. The DCT is more precise in scale separation than the digital filter and the results of this study suggest that it is more suited for the bandpass filtering of MSLP fields. The detection and tracking parts also influence the numbers of tracks although less critically. After a selection process that applies criteria to identify tracks of potential polar lows, differences between both methods are still visible though the major systems are identified in both

The challenges of extending climate risk insurance to fisheries

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas)Willis Research NetworkCommonwealth Marine Economies Programme, UK Foreign and Commonwealth Offic

Effi cacy of a Russian-backbone live attenuated infl uenza vaccine among children in Senegal: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background Live attenuated infl uenza vaccines have been shown to signifi cantly reduce infl uenza in diverse populations of children, but no effi cacy studies have been done in resource-poor tropical settings. In Senegal, we assessed the effi cacy and safety of a live attenuated infl uenza vaccine based on Russian-derived master donor viruses and licensed as a single dose. Methods In this double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel group, single-centre trial done near Niakhar, Senegal, generally healthy children aged 2–5 years were randomly allocated (2:1) to receive a single intranasal dose of masked trivalent live attenuated infl uenza vaccine or placebo. The allocation sequence was computer-generated by PATH with block sizes of three. The manufacturer provided vaccine and placebo in coded vials to preserve blinding. Participants were monitored through the predictable infl uenza season in Senegal for adverse events and signs and symptoms of infl uenza using weekly home visits and surveillance in clinics. The primary outcome was symptomatic laboratoryconfi rmed infl uenza caused by any strain and occurring from 15 days post-vaccination to the end of the study. The primary analysis was per protocol. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01854632. Findings Between May 23, and July 1, 2013, 1761 children were randomly assigned, 1174 to receive live attenuated infl uenza vaccine and 587 to receive placebo. The per-protocol set included 1173 vaccinees and 584 placebo recipients followed up to Dec 20, 2013. Symptomatic infl uenza was laboratory-confi rmed in 210 (18%) of 1173 recipients of live attenuated infl uenza vaccine and 105 (18%) of placebo recipients, giving a vaccine effi cacy of 0·0% (95% CI –26·4 to 20·9). Adverse events were balanced between the study groups. Two girls who had received live attenuated infl uenza vaccine died, one due to anasarca 12 days postvaccination and one due to malnutrition 70 days postvaccination. Interpretation Live attenuated infl uenza vaccine was well tolerated in young children in Senegal, but did not provide protection against infl uenza. Further study in such populations, which might experience extended periods of infl uenza circulation, is warranted

Analyzing the causes and spatial pattern of the European 2003 carbon flux anomaly in Europe using seven models

International audienceGlobally, the year 2003 is associated with one of the largest atmospheric CO2 rises on record. In the same year, Europe experienced an anomalously strong flux of CO2 from the land to the atmosphere associated with an exceptionally dry and hot summer in Western and Central Europe. In this study we analyze the magnitude of this carbon flux anomaly and key driving ecosystem processes using simulations of seven terrestrial ecosystem models of different complexity and types (process-oriented and diagnostic). We address the following questions: (1) how large were deviations in the net European carbon flux in 2003 relative to a short-term baseline (1998–2002) and to longer-term variations in annual fluxes (1980 to 2005), (2) which regions exhibited the largest shift in carbon fluxes during the growing season 2003, and (3) which processes controlled the carbon balance anomaly . In Western and Central Europe, the anomaly in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) over growing season 2003 was outside the 1s bound of the carbon flux anomalies for 1980–2005. The estimated growing season anomaly ranged between –29 and –196 Tg C for Western Europe and between 13 and –94 Tg C for Central Europe depending on the model used. All models responded to a dipole pattern of the climate anomaly in 2003. In Western and Central Europe NEP was reduced due to heat and drought. Over Western Russia NEP was decreased in response to lower than normal temperatures and high precipitation. While models agree on changes in simulated NEP and gross primary productivity anomalies in 2003 over Western and Central Europe, models diverge in the estimates of anomalies in ecosystem respiration. Except for two process models which simulate respiration increase, most models simulated a decrease in ecosystem respiration in 2003. The diagnostic models showed a weaker decrease in ecosystem respiration than the process-oriented models. Based on the multi-model simulations we estimated the total carbon flux anomaly over the 2003 growing season in Europe to range between –0.02 and –0.27 Pg C relative to the net flux in 1998–2002

Analyzing the causes and spatial pattern of the European 2003 carbon flux anomaly using seven models

Globally, the year 2003 is associated with one of the largest atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> rises on record. In the same year, Europe experienced an anomalously strong flux of CO<sub>2</sub> from the land to the atmosphere associated with an exceptionally dry and hot summer in Western and Central Europe. In this study we analyze the magnitude of this carbon flux anomaly and key driving ecosystem processes using simulations of seven terrestrial ecosystem models of different complexity and types (process-oriented and diagnostic). We address the following questions: (1) how large were deviations in the net European carbon flux in 2003 relative to a short-term baseline (1998–2002) and to longer-term variations in annual fluxes (1980 to 2005), (2) which European regions exhibited the largest changes in carbon fluxes during the growing season 2003, and (3) which ecosystem processes controlled the carbon balance anomaly . <br><br> In most models the prominence of 2003 anomaly in carbon fluxes declined with lengthening of the reference period from one year to 16 years. The 2003 anomaly for annual net carbon fluxes ranged between 0.35 and –0.63 Pg C for a reference period of one year and between 0.17 and –0.37 Pg C for a reference period of 16 years for the whole Europe. <br><br> In Western and Central Europe, the anomaly in simulated net ecosystem productivity (NEP) over the growing season in 2003 was outside the 1σ variance bound of the carbon flux anomalies for 1980–2005 in all models. The estimated anomaly in net carbon flux ranged between –42 and –158 Tg C for Western Europe and between 24 and –129 Tg C for Central Europe depending on the model used. All models responded to a dipole pattern of the climate anomaly in 2003. In Western and Central Europe NEP was reduced due to heat and drought. In contrast, lower than normal temperatures and higher air humidity decreased NEP over Northeastern Europe. While models agree on the sign of changes in simulated NEP and gross primary productivity in 2003 over Western and Central Europe, models diverge in the estimates of anomalies in ecosystem respiration. Except for two process models which simulate respiration increase, most models simulated a decrease in ecosystem respiration in 2003. The diagnostic models showed a weaker decrease in ecosystem respiration than the process-oriented models. Based on the multi-model simulations we estimated the total carbon flux anomaly over the 2003 growing season in Europe to range between –0.02 and –0.27 Pg C relative to the net carbon flux in 1998–2002

Analyzing the causes and spatial pattern of the European 2003 carbon flux anomaly using seven models

Globally, the year 2003 is associated with one of the largest atmospheric CO2 rises on record. In the same year, Europe experienced an anomalously strong flux of CO2 from the land to the atmosphere associated with an exceptionally dry and hot summer in Western and Central Europe. In this study we analyze the magnitude of this carbon flux anomaly and key driving ecosystem processes using simulations of seven terrestrial ecosystem models of different complexity and types (process-oriented and diagnostic). We address the following questions: (1) how large were deviations in the net European carbon flux in 2003 relative to a short-term baseline (1998–2002) and to longer-term variations in annual fluxes (1980 to 2005), (2) which European regions exhibited the largest changes in carbon fluxes during the growing season 2003, and (3) which ecosystem processes controlled the carbon balance anomaly . In most models the prominence of 2003 anomaly in carbon fluxes declined with lengthening of the reference period from one year to 16 years. The 2003 anomaly for annual net carbon fluxes ranged between 0.35 and –0.63 Pg C for a reference period of one year and between 0.17 and –0.37 Pg C for a reference period of 16 years for the whole Europe. In Western and Central Europe, the anomaly in simulated net ecosystem productivity (NEP) over the growing season in 2003 was outside the 1σ variance bound of the carbon flux anomalies for 1980–2005 in all models. The estimated anomaly in net carbon flux ranged between –42 and –158 Tg C for Western Europe and between 24 and –129 Tg C for Central Europe depending on the model used. All models responded to a dipole pattern of the climate anomaly in 2003. In Western and Central Europe NEP was reduced due to heat and drought. In contrast, lower than normal temperatures and higher air humidity decreased NEP over Northeastern Europe. While models agree on the sign of changes in simulated NEP and gross primary productivity in 2003 over Western and Central Europe, models diverge in the estimates of anomalies in ecosystem respiration. Except for two process models which simulate respiration increase, most models simulated a decrease in ecosystem respiration in 2003. The diagnostic models showed a weaker decrease in ecosystem respiration than the process-oriented models. Based on the multi-model simulations we estimated the total carbon flux anomaly over the 2003 growing season in Europe to range between –0.02 and –0.27 Pg C relative to the net carbon flux in 1998–2002

Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards

Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe

Agglomeration of Knowledge in the German Regional Economy

This article investigates the geographical location of workers in jobs with high-knowledge requirements in the German economy. Our analysis takes individual-level data from the German socioeconomic panel (GSOEP) and combines them with the knowledge information for different jobs that comes from the US Department of Labor. We make use of the regional information inherent to the GSOEP that can be accessed only through a special user contract. High-knowledge employment is differently distributed across the German regions. Whereas highknowledge employment in communication and media as well as public safety is rather concentrated across regions, high-knowledge employment in computers and electronics, engineering and technology, education and training and mechanical tasks is more dispersed. Eastern German regions display a lower share of highknowledge workers in computers, engineering, mechanical tasks and public safety. The results are important to understand the regional development potential across the German regions. Our analysis detects a division in high-knowledge employment between the East and West of Germany