Determinants of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Investigation on Turkey

This article aims at identifying the determinants of currency crises in Turkey the period 1980:01-2006:06. Following a general-to-specific model selection methodology, a broad set of pre-selected variables were tested through bivariate logit regressions. Significant variables were then used in a multivariate logit model. Strong evidence emerged that current account balance/GDP, short-term debt/long-term debt, domestic credit/GDP, foreign liabilities/foreign assets of banks, and fiscal balance/GDP are significant with correct signs. The measures of goodness-of-fit and in-sample predictive power of the model turned out to be favorable. The resulting model correctly calls 87.18% and 73.08% of the months at 10% and 20% levels, respectively.Speculative attacks; currency crises; logit model, Turkey.

Does inmigration have an impact on economic development and unemployment?. Empirical evidence from Finland(1981-2001)

This study aims at investigating the nature of the causal relationship between immigration and two macroeconomic indicators, GDP per capita and unemployment using Granger causality tests based on Finnish data during the period between 1981-2001. Results indicate that the null hypotheses of immigration does not granger cause GDP per capita is rejected in 2-year lag, at the 5% level. Results show no evidence of reverse causality. On the other hand, the null hypotheses of immigration does not granger cause unemployment is rejected in 2-year lag at the 5% level. Again, results show no evidence of reverse causation.Granger causality, economic development, immigration

Long-Run Relationship between Economic Growth and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation on Canada and the United States

This article examines the long run relationship between economic growth and stock prices for Canada and the United States through cointegration estimation procedure, and it implements the Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to abstract simultaneously the short- and long-run information in the modeling process. Results from the cointegration tests reveal that economic growth and stock prices share long run equilibrium relationship for both Canada and the U.S. The results from the VECM indicate that for the U.S., causality runs from economic growth to stock prices but not vice versa. However for Canada, the results reveal that there is a bi-directional causality between economic growth and stock prices.stock returns; interest rates; economic growth; Canada; the United tates S

Brazilian Real Crisis Revisited: A Linear Probability Model to Identify Leading Indicators

This article aims at identifying the indicators of the Brazilian real crisis through building a probit model incorporating 20 monthly macroeconomic, political, and financial sector indicators from 1980:1 – 1999:1. Results indicate that the significant variables are inflation (1-month lag), real exchange rate (1-month lag), import growth (1-month lag), US interest rates (2-month lag), public debt/GDP (2-month lag), and current account/GDP (3-month lag). Evidence further indicates that the signs of the variables are in line with our expectations, with the exception of US interest rates.Mexican peso crisis, financial crises, probit model, Brazil

The Income Effects of Decentralization of Population in Korea: An Econometric Investigation

non-Capital Regions has become a serious issue despite the various decentralization policies instituted since the 1960’s. This study aims at analyzing the effect of decentralization of population in the capital region on income, and revealing the difference in productivity between the Capital and non-capital regions. The analysis begins with an estimate of production functions by region. It then analyzes the changes to employment as population decreases in the Capital region, and the economic effects on regional production through the movement of employment in each region. The results show that, decentralization in the capital region would result in decrease national income in Korea.Decentralization Policy; Total Factor Productivity; Product Function

Forecasting Inflation in Developing Nations: The Case of Pakistan

This study attempts to outline the practical steps which need to be undertaken to use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series models for forecasting Pakistan’s inflation. A framework for ARIMA forecasting is drawn up. On the basis of insample and out-of-sample forecast it can be concluded that the model has sufficient predictive powers and the findings are well in line with those of other studies. Further, in this study, the main focus is to forecast the monthly inflation on short-term basis, for this purpose, different ARIMA models are used and the candid model is proposed. On the basis of various diagnostic and selection & evaluation criteria the best and accurate model is selected for the short term forecasting of inflation.Forecasting inflation; ARIMA

ISE and Exchange Market Pressure

This article aims at investigating the long-run relationship between stock prices and speculative pressure in the Turkish exchange market through Granger-causality analysis for the period 1986:01-2006:11. For this purpose an Exchange Market Pressure Index is built using the weighted average of exchange rate changes, interest rate changes and foreign exchange reserve changes. This index is then used in pairwise causality analyses with Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) National-100 Index. Results of the ADF unit root tests suggest that the series are stationary. Hence, no-cointegration analysis was carried out before the Granger-causality tests. Results of Granger-causality indicates that there exists no long-run relationship between stock prices and the speculative pressure in the exchange market in Turkey.currency crises; stock prices; co-integration; exchange market pressure.

East Asian Financial Crisis Revisited: An Econometric Analysis, 1981-2001

This article seeks to find out which macroeconomic variables played a role in the East Asian financial crisis of 1997 using a linear probability model built for Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, and Philippines. Results indicate that foreign direct investment, money stock, growth of exports, current account balance, and real interest rates seem to have played a role in the crisis in most countries, whereas the significance of domestic credit, inflation, and short-term debt relative to reserves appears to be rather weak as explanatory factors for the occurrence of the crisis.financial crises; linear probability models; East Asian crisis

Russian Financial Crisis of 1998: An Econometric Investigation

This article aims at deriving lessons from the Russian financial crisis through examining the root causes of the crisis based on a probit model incorporating 20 monthly macroeconomic and financial sector indicators spanning the period 1988:1 – 1998:8. The results turned out to be as expected. Strong evidence emerged suggesting that the significant variables are foreign direct investment/GDP, inflation, world oil prices, real interest rates, current account/GDP, GDP per capita, foreign exchange reserves, stock prices, real exchange rate, and export growth. Signs of the variables were mostly in line with what one would have expected, except public debt, bank reserves / bank assets, real interest rates, and lending and deposit rate spread.Russian financial crisis, probit model, early warning systems

Is Sales Growth Associated with Market, Size and Value Factors in Returns? Evidence from Athens Stock Exchange (1998-2003)

This article investigates whether past sales growth of a firm is associated with market, size and value factors in returns so it can be inferred that this fundamental variable is related to size and book-to-market equity that help capture the cross-section of average stock returns in the Athens stock exchange during the period 1998-2003.The findings of the study provide supportive evidence that past sales growth of a firm is associated with market, size and value factors in returns so it can be inferred that this fundamental variable is related to size and book-to-market equity that help capture the cross-section of average stock returns in Athens Stock Exchange. Several unanswered questions arise from this study such as: (i) what are the underlying economic state variables that produce variation in earnings and returns related to size and BE/ME? (ii) do these unnamed state variables produce variation in consumption and wealth that is not captured by an overall market factor and so can explain the risk premiums in returns associated with size and BE/ME?Sales growth; market; value factors in returns