Depopulation and Changes in Population Spacing in the Area of the Bjelovar-Bilogora County in the Period between 1857 and 2001

Stanovništvo Bjelovarsko-bilogorske županije, kao i većine ostalih hrvatskih regija, prošlo je u razdoblju od 1857. do 2001. godine sve karakteristične faze demografske tranzicije. Maksimalan broj stanovnika ta je županija zabilježila 1931., a od popisa 1971. godine u procesima industrijalizacije započinje hod depopulacije gotovo svih ruralnih naselja. U posttranzicijskoj fazi u zadnja dva desetljeća smanjenje broja stanovnika zabilježeno je i u nekim gradovima, a ruralna naselja najvećim dijelom ulaze u depopulacijsku fazu odumiranja. U tom je procesu intenzitet depopulacije u prostornom rasporedu vrlo diferenciran. Pokazatelji smanjivanja nataliteta i emigracije najizraženiji su u ruralnim naseljima udaljenijim od gradskih središta i glavnih prometnica (na Bilogori, Moslavačkoj gori i zapadnom Papuku). U zadnjih tridesetak godina pad broja stanovnika događa se u čak 80 posto ruralnih naselja! To bitno mijenja kvalitativne značajke stanovništva, uz pojavu starenja, negativnog prirodnog kretanja i odumiranja. Ti procesi zvone na uzbunu i traže novu, efikasniju gospodarsku (policentričnu) i populacijsku politiku.The population of the Bjelovar-Bilogora County, similar to most other Croatian regions, had passed through all the usual phases of demographic transition in the period between 1857 and 2001. The population size in this county had reached its peak in 1931; after the 1971 census however, the depopulation trend began in almost all rural settlements, due to the industrialisation processes. In the post-transitional phase during the last two decades, the depopulation was registered in several towns as well, while the majority of rural settlements entered the depopulation phase of gradual dying. Within this process, the level of depopulation differs significantly according to population spacing. Emigration and natality decrease indexes are most significant in rural settlements located far from urban centres and main roadways (Bilogora, Moslavačka gora and Western Papuk). In the last three decades, the depopulation trend has been present in as many as 80 percent of rural settlements! This fact has essentially changed the quality-related population features, bringing along aging, negative natural movement and gradual dying. These processes call for immediate action: introducing a new and more efficient economic (polycentric) and population policy

Population as a Development Factor of Podravina: Podravina Human Resources in Post-Transitional Stage of Intensive Depopulation

U zadnja dva desetljeća proces depopulacije podravskih naselja nastavljen je uz zabrinjavajući trend ubrzanja. U ovom članku autori su prikazali glavne elemente koji karakteriziraju kvantitativno i kvalitativno kretanje i strukturu stanovništva Podravine. Ta kretanja povezana su s analizom što ona znače za gospodarski i društveni život i razvoj ovoga kraja. Na početku je analizirano kvantitativno kretanje broja stanovnika od 1948. do 2011. godine, uz prikaz promjena u teritorijalnom rasporedu pučanstva. Potom slijedi detaljna analiza prirodnog kretanja stanovništva, prvenstveno nataliteta, fertiliteta i mortaliteta. Prikupljeni su podaci za sve podravske gradove i općine, te pojedinačno za svih 38 župa Komarničkog arhiđakonata. Analiza spolne i starosne strukture otkriva intenzivne procese starenja stanovništva. Prikazana je obrazovna i profesionalna struktura stanovništva po općinama, kao i kretanje nezaposlenosti. Na temelju tih i drugih kvalitativnih pokazatelja izvršena je tipizacija podravskih općina prema njihovim potencijalima za budući razvoj. Na kraju je data i projekcija broja stanovnika Podravine do 2051. godine. Analiza je poduprijeta velikim brojem tablica i grafikonaIn the last two decades, the process of depopulation of Podravina villages has continued with a dis-concerting acceleration of the trend. The paper shows the main elements characterizing the quantitative and qualitative development and structure of the Podravina population. The relation among the trends is explained in the analysis of their significance for the economic and social life and development of the area. Firstly, the quantitative trend of the number of inhabitants was analysed in the period from 1948 until 2011 accompanied by the illustration of changes in the territorial distribution of the population. This is followed by a thorough analysis of the natural change in population, first of all, the birth rate, fertility rate and mortality rate. Data have been collected for all cities and districts in Podravina, as well as individually for all 38 parishes of the Komarnik Archdeaconry. The analysis of age and sex structure shows the intensive processes of ageing of the population. Educational and professional structure of the population, as well as unemployment trends were shown for every district. Based on these and other qualitative indicators, a typification of Podravina districts was performed according to their potential for future development. Finally, a projection of the number of inhabitants in Podravina by 2051 was provided. The analysis is supported by a large number of tables and graphs

Demographic Movements in Bjelovar, Čazma, Daruvar, Garešnica and Grubišno Polje

U članku se analiziraju kvantitativna i kvalitativna obilježja stanovništva u pet gradova Bjelovarsko-bilogorske županije, s projekcijom broja stanovnika do 2051. godine. Prikazano je kretanje broja stanovnika u razdoblju 1857.–2016. godine, s naglaskom na procese depopulacije u zadnjih pola stoljeća. Zahvaljujući procesima industrijalizacije i deruralizacije, broj stanovnika Bjelovara i Daruvara bilježi sve do 1991. godine intenzivan rast, dok stanovništvo Čazme, Garešnice i Grubišnoga Polja počinje opadati već od prvih popisa nakon Drugoga svjetskoga rata. U posljednjih pola stoljeća bitno se promijenila prostorna slika naseljenosti Županije, uz intenzivnije procese depopulacije ruralnih područja od prosjeka Hrvatske. To potvrđuje i analiza prirodnog kretanja stanovništva. Sve općine, ali i gradska naselja Županije već od 1970-ih godina ulaze u posttranzicijsku demografsku fazu, koju karakteriziraju oznake negativnih razlika između nataliteta i mortaliteta te negativna migracijska bilanca. To su i osnovni uzroci gotovo dramatične depopulacije praktički svih naselja u Županiji. U izravnoj je vezi s navedenim kretanjima i pogoršanje starosne strukture stanovništva. Sve je veći nedostatak mladog stanovništva, dok je kontingent staroga stanovništva u stalnom porastu. Stanovništvo ima sve povoljniju školsku (obrazovnu) strukturu, što u određenom smislu povećava pokretljivost, odnosno hrani negativnu migracijsku bilancu. Ako se sadašnji trendovi kretanja stanovništva (u zadnjih 20-ak godina) projiciraju do 2051. godine, onda će sredinom 21. stoljeća broj stanovnika Bjelovara biti manji za oko 25%, Čazme za 47%, Daruvara za 54%, Garešnice za oko 63% te Grubišnoga Polja za čak gotovo 80%. To će izazvati i vrlo negativna kretanja u procesima starenja stanovništva i u drugim kvalitativnim obilježjima, a uz dramatično demografsko pražnjenje ruralnih područja. Takva demografska kretanja trebaju biti zadnji alarm cijelom društvu u stvaranju i provođenju nove, dugoročne demografske i razvojne politike.The paper analyses quantitative and qualitative features of the population of five towns in the Bjelovar-Bilogora County, with the predicted number of inhabitants by 2051. It presents the movement in the number of inhabitants in the period 1857–2016, stressing the depopulation processes in the last five decades. Thanks to the industrialisation and deruralisation processes, up to the year 1991, there had been an intensive increase in the number of inhabitants of Bjelovar and Daruvar, while the number of inhabitants in Čazma, Garešnica and Grubišno Polje began decreasing as soon as at the time of the first census following World War Two. Over the last fifty years, the spatial image of the presence of population in the County changed significantly. In comparison with the Croatian average, depopulation processes in rural areas in this area were more intensive. This was confirmed by the analysis of the natural movement of population. As early as in the 1970s, not only all the municipalities, but also urban settlements of the Country entered the post-transitional demographic phase, which was characterised by negative differences between the birth and the death rates, as well as by a negative migration balance. These were the main causes of a nearly dramatic depopulation having taken place in the vast majority of settlements in the County. Furthermore, the aggravation of the age structure of population is directly connected with the aforementioned movements. There is a decrease in the percentage of the young population, whilst the contingent of the old population is in constant increase. The schooling (educational) structure of the population is becoming increasingly favourable, which – in a certain sense – increases the mobility, i.e. stimulates the negative migration balance. If the current trends of population movement (present for the last two decades) are projected into 2051, the number of inhabitants of Bjelovar will – around the mid-21st century – decrease by approximately 25 %, of Čazma by 47 %, of Daruvar by 54 %, of Garešnica by around 63 %, and of Grubišno Polje by nearly 80 %. This is more than likely to initiate extremely negative movements within population aging processes and other qualitative features, accompanied by dramatic demographic vacation of rural areas. Demographic movements of this kind oughtto present the final alarm for the entire society to create and implement a new, long-term demographic and developmental policy

The Natural Basis as a Factor of the Inhabitation of the Upper Croatian Podravina Region

Analiza prirodno-geografskih značajki gornje hrvatske Podravine nedvojbeno ukazuje na zaključak da je prirodna osnovica kroz povijesni razvoj bila glavni čimbenik prostorne distribucije naseljenosti. Tri osnovne zone, izdužene u smjeru sjeverozapad, jugoistok, dominiraju u prostornoj slici naseljenosti Podravine - i kroz povijest i danas. Najatraktivnija zona, koja ima i najgušću naseljenost i najvažniju prometnu mrežu, ocjedito je područje würmskih i dijelom holocenih terasa. Sjeverno od tog područja je slabije naseljena zona dravskog poloja, a južno najslabije naseljena zona brežuljkastog neogenog (kvartarnog) pobrđa. U radu su temeljito razrađene značajke geološko-geomorfoloških, hidrogeografskih i klimatskih osobitosti te specifičnih ekosustava. Uz to, spomenuti su osnovni razlozi promjena u atraktivnostima za naseljavanje pojedinih zona kroz povijest i prostorna diferencijacija u sadašnjosti.1. The subject of the significance of natural-geographic factors for the spatial distribution of the population of the upper Croatian Podravina region can only be scientifically analysed by applying a multi-disciplinary approach. This pertains above all to the linking of geographic (geo-ecological) and historiographic (geo-historical) methodologies. Based on the experiences of some contemporary Croatian eco-historians and geo-ecologists (D. Roksandić, H. Petrić, M. Kolar, V. Rogić, M. Martinez, A. Bognar and others), and foreign researchers (E. Häckel, F. Brandel, P. Engle, G. R. Taylor, W. Petersen and others), individual natural-geographic characteristics and their co-relation with the levels and changes in the distribution of the population have been systematically elaborated. 2. The permeation or symbiosis of physical-geographic characteristics and the spatial picture of the inhabitation of the Podravina region is most pronounced in the geological-geomorphological characteristics of the area. In the geological sense Podravina is in the so-called Drava river depression, where palaeogene stratum have settled deep on the fractured old Pannonian mass. These strata as up to five and six thousand metres deep in the middle of the depression, and drilling wells have reached as deep in search of natural gas and crude oil. To the south are hillocks of the neogene stratum of the Bilogora region and the northern slopes of Kalnik and a part of the Toplica highlands. That was the basis on which today’s relief was formed during the pleistocene and holocene. Of particular importance was the change in climate at the turn of the two periods, and the erosive and tectonic activity during the last 12 thousand years or so, i.e. from the start of the neolithic to the present day. As a result of the geo-morphological and pedological characteristics, the relief in the upper Croatian Podravina region stretches zonally, longitudinally extended in the direction north-west to south-east. Basic longitudinal inhabitation zones have also formed under this fundamental relief influence. Three basic inhabitation zones have been formed in the Podravina region in the past based on the underlying north-south hypsometric profile: 1. In the Drava river depression, 2. On the terraced holocene and würm terraces (two inter-zones can also be established – the holocene and contact würm), 3. The denudation-accumulation relief of the low-lying hill country. Also important to the zonal stretching of the spatial inhabitation are the climatic characteristics in the past (today a moderately warm humid climate Cfb), and especially the fundamental Podravina region ecosystems. Based on the preserved ecosystems it is possible, with a significant possibility for spatial positioning, to determine the extent of natural vegetation in the Podravina region throughout the past. 3. In the three basic inhabitation zones – the Drava river floodplain, the terraced lowlands and the low-lying hill country – the level of settlement density and the centres of settlements has changes significantly throughout the past. Along with changes in the distant past (above all because of varying climatic conditions), the strongest changes in the spatial distribution of population took place during the past two centuries, and especially in the new processes of industrialisation. The differences in the number of settlements in the cited three inhabitation zones are not that great. In the hill country zone there are now as many as 65 settlements in existence or 37.6 percent of the total number of places, 80 settlements in the most attractive terraced zone or 46.7 percent. That is, however, only an orientational indicator. What is important is the size and structure of the settlements, and changes in the size of the population through history. Here the differences between the zones are very significant. Inhabitation in the Drava river floodplain is relatively poor and has changed in the past, and has in the past half century or so seen pronounced depopulation: in 1771 there were 8,124 inhabitants living in the settlements of the floodplain or 17.7 percent of the total population of the Podravina region, and 16,050 souls in 2001 or just 13.8 percent. The increase in the number of inhabitants in those 230 years was 1998 percent in total. Even fewer inhabitants lived in the scattered settlements of the low-lying hill country: 6,099 or 13.4 percent in 1771, and 14,438 or 12.4 percent in 2001, with a total growth of 236 percent. From this data alone the absolute domination of inhabitation on the holocene and würm terraces can be conjectured, which was logically to have been expected. In this basic contact zone, then, where the largest settlements and main traffic network is concentrated, there were 31,565 inhabitants or 68.9 percent living in 1777, and as many as 85,717 inhabitants or 73.8 percent in 2001. The increase in the level of inhabitation on the attractive terraces, then, was the fastest and amounted, in the cited comparative period, to 272 percent (table 1). In analysing the growth of the population of rural and urban settlements the logical conclusion can be made that the towns grew demographically up to several times faster than the villages, with the domination of Koprivnica. It is important to underline that all three of the Podravina region urban settlements are, in fact, situated on the attractive würm terraces. The latest demographic trends in Podravina, however, are indicative of an intensive depopulation process, particularly of the rural settlements. Some of them are already at the point of extinction. 4. An analysis of the demographic trends in the Podravina region, and in particular the changes in the spatial picture of the inhabitation, has shown without a doubt that it is imperative that a thorough analysis also be carried out of the natural-geographic factors and it that way to determine their significance and effect on spatial demographic development. It is, namely, evident that natural-geographic factors, and the factors closely related to them, have a greater effect on changes in the spatial picture of inhabitation than has been previously considered. Of course, it is essential subsequently to compare and to supplement these natural-geographic factors with all social or societal factors, and it is only on the basis of that kind of multi-disciplinary analysis that relevant explanations and conclusions can be arrived at