Cumulative Ordinary Kriging interpolation model to forecast radioactive fallout, and its application to Chernobyl and Fukushima assessment: A new method and mini review

The Cumulative Ordinary Kriging (COK) interpolation method has been proposed for the spatial prediction of atmospheric radioactive fallout in any given region. COK is built on the Ordinary Kriging and Cumulative Semivariogram methods and combines all their advantages to achieve statistically significant results. It is verified in this paper the reliability of the results from COK with other well-known Modified Shepard's Method (MSM), Inverse Distance Square (INDSQ), Polynomial Regression (PR), Natural Neighbour (NN), Radial Basis (RB), and Kriging Method interpolation methods. The model is tested in detail and in every possible way in two and three dimensions and applied to real-time Cs-134 and Cs-137 radioactive fallout data from the Chernobyl and Fukushima reactor accidents by combining both experimental and theoretical results. The results obtained from the applications for all interpolation methods are included in the supplementary materials section at the end of the article for the benefit of the readers. COK can also be used for spatial modelling of any particle at micro or macro scale. It can contribute significantly to environmental quality, ecological, and human health.Turkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Arastirma Kurumu (TUBITAK) ; Firat Universit

Markov Chain transition probability modeling of radon gas records and future projection possibility determination

Markov Chain models serve two purposes firstly, subdivide the main data based on the mean value and one and two standard deviation plus and minus values around the mean value. The second stage of modeling, after calculating the transition probabilities between these categories from the available data, is completed by repeatedly multiplying the categorization date groups until the steady-state transition probability values are obtained. This procedure provides a convenient modeling approach for radon gas transient measurement records. After a brief presentation of Markov Chain procedure in this paper, the application is carried out by considering five categories that lead to a better transition probability matrix. Such a matrix provides information about the probabilities of future transition at the radon data measuring station. In addition, it is possible to associate these transition probabilities with the possibility of an earthquake.AFA