THE ANALYSIS OF THE QUALITY OF ADMINISTRATION OF COMPANY RELATIONS WITH COMMERCIAL PARTNERS

The proper development of the activity of a company depends largely upon the way it administrates its relations with commercial partners (suppliers and clients), as they support the activity of exploitment, which is the main activity of the company. The qclients, suppliers, negotiation power, partnership relations, receivables, debts, income, expenses, cashings, payments, indicators of activity, indicators of liquidity.

EXCHANGE-RATES FORECASTING: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES AND ARIMA MODELS

The exchange rate reflects the ratio at which one currency can be exchanged with another currency, namely the ratio of currency prices. The relevant literature implies, by the purchasing power parity theory, that in the long-run exchange rates converge to an equilibrium level. The question that arises is related to the behavior in the short-term of the exchange rates, and how these fluctuations might affect the financial market players, the investors as well as those directly influenced by changes in the exchange rate In this study we want to highlight the methods for exchange rate forecasting, using the exchange rates of Romanian Leu versus the most important currencies in terms of international trade, namely the Euro, United States Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi and the Russian Ruble. The relevant literature on currency forecasting issues includes a wide range of methods, the majority concentrating on models that are based on the random walk hypothesis in forecasting exchange rates, respectively those based on macroeconomic indicators. (Chinn and Meese:1995), (Mark:1995) (Hwang: 2001) consider the last ones more efficient, while (Meese and Rogof: 1983), (Goldberg and Frydman: 1996) indicate that the models based on the random walk hypothesis are superior. Others, like (Marsh and Power:1996), (Kilian and Taylor: 2001), (Zhang, Simoff and Debenham: 2006) use hybrid models. In the literature both types of models are used, but in the long-term the models based on macroeconomic indicators outperform those based on random walk, while in the short-term a more efficient predictability is achieved by the models based on random walk. To forecast the exchange rates the single exponential smoothing technique, double exponential smoothing technique, Holt -Winters simple exponential smoothing technique, Holt -Winters multiplicative exponential smoothing technique, Holt -Winters additive exponential smoothing technique namely the the autoregressive integrated moving average models were used. The forecasting results were measured by the indicators: Sum of squared errors, Root mean squared error, Mean absolute error, Bias Proportion, Variance Proportion, Covariance Proportion and the Theil Inequality Coefficient. All the results indicate the apreciation of the Romanian Leu against the other currencies. In the case of the first five forecast techniques the results are similar, from the point of view of the forecast coefficients, which points out that the optimal models were found. The exponential smoothing techniques in some cases outperform the ARIMA models, because of the speed eith which they addapt to the smallest changes to the market conditions. In addition, the ARIMA models present some difficulties in estimating and validating the model, are more effective in rendering the medium-term trend, in our case 4 months. So these models show the changes in trend, while the forecasting models based on exponential smoothing techniques are an effective tool for those interested in the evolution of the exchange rate. This work was possible with the financial support of the Sectoral Operational Programme for Human Resources Development 2007-2013, co-financed by the European Social Fund, under the project number POSDRU/107/1.5/S/77946 with the title "Doctorate: an Attractive Research Career ".Forecasting, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, Holt-Winters Additive, Holt-Winters Multiplicative

THE ANALYSIS OF THE QUALITY OF ADMINISTRATION OF COMPANY RELATIONS WITH COMMERCIAL PARTNERS

The proper development of the activity of a company depends largely upon the way it administrates its relations with commercial partners (suppliers and clients), as they support the activity of exploitment, which is the main activity of the company. The

THE ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE BET INDEX AND THE MAIN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN ROMANIA (1997-2008)

Starting from the conclusions which result from conducting some similar empirical studies on the great stock markets, in this work, we have set as our goal to analyze the return series behaviour of the main index of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) - the BET index, during different periods of time, compared to the evolution of some macroeconomic variables, like interbank interest rates, inflation rate or unemployment rate. The results confirm that there is a weak relation between these variables, in what monthly data are concerned.stock market, macroeconomic variables, empirical study

The prospect of Euro adoption in Romania

Taking into account the schedule of Romania’s monetary integration: the entrance into Exchange Rate Mechanism II in 2012 and the euro adoption in 2014, our authorities have become preoccupied in accelerating the convergence process. This paper aims to analyze Romania’s progress in the convergence process, as well as, the current stage of the fulfilment of nominal and real convergence criteria required for euro adoption. In the same time we compare the results obtained by our country and those recorded in other Central and Eastern European states in the integration process. We also debate on the main reasons responsible for delaying the convergence process in Romania and the prospect of speeding up this process without a negative impact on the economy.peer-reviewe

THE IMPACT OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION AND FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION ON PRUDENTIAL SUPERVISION

As a result of the financial market globalization during the last two decades, the conventional barriers between financial activities have diminished. This led to the emergence of financial holdings that operate both in the banking sector and on the stockmodels of prudential supervision, consolidated supervision, traditional supervision, central bank

EXCHANGE-RATES FORECASTING: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES AND ARIMA MODELS

Exchange rates forecasting is, and has been a challenging task in finance. Statistical and econometrical models are widely used in analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rates. This paper investigates the behavior of daily exchange rates of the Romanian Leu against the Euro, United States Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi and the Russian Ruble. Smoothing techniques are generated and compared with each other. These models include the Simple Exponential Smoothing technique, as the Double Exponential Smoothing technique, the Simple Holt-Winters, the Additive Holt-Winters, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model

The Prospect of Euro Adoption in Romania

Taking into account the schedule of Romania’s monetary integration: the entrance into Exchange Rate Mechanism II in 2012 and the euro adoption in 2014, our authorities have become preoccupied in accelerating the convergence process. This paper aims to analyze Romania’s progress in the convergence process, as well as, the current stage of the fulfilment of nominal and real convergence criteria required for euro adoption. In the same time we compare the results obtained by our country and those recorded in other Central and Eastern European states in the integration process. We also debate on the main reasons responsible for delaying the convergence process in Romania and the prospect of speeding up this process without a negative impact on the economy.nominal convergence, real convergence, euro adoption

MONETARY POLICY MANAGEMENT WITHIN THE POST-CRISIS CONTEXT

By taking into consideration that any macroeconomic administration activity it is either compulsory or necessary to be oriented for the obtaining of a complex system of optimum results, the post-crisis context become strictly correlated to the crisis one; this is mean that the management of the post-crisis programs is structural correlated to the management of the crisis ones towards the assurance of the sustainability being understood in all directions of the society life. The main aspect of the present paper is the aspect of the development needs of the management capacity of the macroeconomic policies system, among of the monetary policy is one of the components which has the same value and importance like any other component. Referring to the actual macroeconomic context, which is stronger influenced by the complexity of the economic relations that the crisis phenomena, the macroeconomic policies system must be associated to a level of thinking more closely to the complexity level already mentioned. In the same time, a more correct idea is that the actual economic crises, having different effects associated to the differences between the national macroeconomic systems, is a correct reply of the real economy for the insufficient management capacity of the macroeconomic policies systems.financial stability, macroeconomic policies, equilibrium, sustainability, crisis