How natural are 'natural disasters'? : vulnerability to drought in Southern Namibia communal areas

Bibliography: leaves 37-4

Stimulating small-scale farmer innovation and adaptation with Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA): lessons from successful implementation in Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean and South Asia

How to cope with climate variability and adapt to climate change are key challenges for smallholder farmers globally. In low-income countries, farmers have typically received little, if any locally relevant weather or climate information. Although climate services have contributed to increased availability and accessibility of climate information, this has rarely achieved the desired impacts for farmers’ decision-making, adaptation and resilience to climate variability and change. This has been attributed to a lack of engagement with intended users of climate information and a top-down approach to development and delivery of climate services that fails to adequately consider and account for farmers’ context-specific requirements. Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) is an approach that was developed to support and empower farmers in their decision-making processes. More than 200,000 farmers have been trained in 23 countries and this paper presents evidence from evaluations in 7 countries including that most (87%; n = 4,299) have made beneficial changes in their crops, livestock and/or livelihood enterprises. The approach has strengthened key institutions that support farmers through deliberative scoping, tailoring, and capacity-building activities with extension and meteorological services. It has been well received by those that use it and is being integrated into policy and training curricula. Key reasons for the success of the approach include the importance of supporting farmers as decision makers and empowering them to relate relatively complex weather and climate information to their own contexts. Key considerations for the future include ensuring sustainability and further scaling as well as maintaining quality

The Roles Of State And Non-State Actors In Early Warning And Early Action

In early warning and early action (EWEA), the active participation of non-state actors is imperative to the design and dissemination of effective warnings and in ensuring that life-saving preparedness measures are actioned when alerts are issued. Regrettably, there is often a lack of collaboration between state and non-state actors in the development and coordination of early action plans for extreme weather and climate-related events. This document provides an overview of the state and non-state actors involved in building effective, people-centred, inclusive and resilient early warning systems (EWS) at the local, national, and international levels (as depicted in Figure 1). It also outlines their specific roles and contributions across the four key areas of the early warning system value chain (as illustrated in Figure 2). Additionally, this document encompasses eight essential recommendations (R1-R8) aimed at international organisations, national governments and other actors involved in developing and providing early warnings and/or early action to improve the willingness and efficacy of EWEA actors to collaborate and ensure a comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction and response. These recommendations are accompanied by a set of actions designed for various stakeholders engaged in early warning systems EWS. The actions are intended to facilitate the broader adoption, utilisation, and sustainability of the recommendation

Strengthening climate services for the food security sector

The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) enables vulnerable sectors and populations to better manage climate variability and adapt to climate change. How? By developing and incorporating science-based climate information into planning, policy and practice. The GFCS places the decision context and information needs of “users” at the centre of the design process. The development of such climate services alters the dynamic between the “user” and the “provider,” valuing each actor's knowledge and engaging them both in a co-production process. This approach challenges the conventional linear supply chain for weather and climate information, in which data are generated, information produced, a product designed, and handed over to the user for consumption, without a real understanding of whether this information is useful for decision-making. In late 2013, with support from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the GFCS embarked on a multi-agency1 proof of concept. The GFCS Adaptation Programme for Africa aimed to increase the resilience of those most vulnerable to the impacts of weather and climate-related hazards, through the development of more effective climate services in Tanzania and Malawi. It focused in particular on the sectors that address food security, health and disaster risk reduction. This article outlines the learning generated through the food security component of the project. The component was jointly led by the World Food Programme (WFP) and CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), with activities implemented with the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA), Malawian Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS), and a range of national and local partners

A Blueprint for Digital Climate-Informed Advisory Services: Building the Resilience of 300 Million Small-Scale Producers by 2030

In 2019, nearly 750 million people faced food insecurity, with that number expected to increase in the coming years. Climate change could significantly depress global crop yields, but adaptation efforts could help decrease this risk. The Blueprint for Digital Climate-Informed Advisory Services lays the conceptual foundation for building the climate resilience of at least 300 million small-scale agricultural producers by 2030. Digital climate-informed advisory services (DCAS) are tools and platforms that integrate climate information into agricultural decision-making. These services include digital mobile apps, radio and online platforms, as well as to digitally enabled printed bulletins based on climate models and extension services that use climate information platforms. DCAS can help agricultural producers and other value chain actors build resilience to climate impacts that threaten present and future agri-food systems. Scaling up efforts, while leaving no one behind, is critical to safeguarding the millions of small-scale producers vital to our global food security. This working paper outlines key principles for good practice, explores how to build the resilience of at least 300 million small-holder producers by 2030 and provides a preliminary typology of how to target investments so they reach the most vulnerable and under-resourced. Additionally, it puts forward potential next steps to accelerate growth in this community of practice and increase meaningful investment in these services. The blueprint was created by more than 150 stakeholders organized into three working groups on data quality and governance, equity and co-creation, and financially sustainable business models. These working groups were led by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University, the World Food Programme and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, respectively. In addition to working group reports, the blueprint was developed based on an extensive literature review and expert consultations undertaken by the World Resources Institute and the Global Center on Adaptation

2019 State of Climate Services: Agriculture and Food Security

In 2018, the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement at the 24th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) called on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) through its Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to regularly report on the state of climate services with a view to “facilitating the development and application of methodologies for assessing adaptation needs” (Decision 11/CMA.1). This inaugural 2019 State of Climate Services Report focuses on agriculture and food security. It reviews countries’ priorities on climate services for adaptation, noting that agriculture is one of the highest, and identifies priority capacity needs. It examines capacity gaps across six components of the climate services value chain including: governance, basic systems, user interface, capacity development, provision and application of climate services, and monitoring and evaluation. The report provides case studies, examples and explanations as to the role of climate information and services to support agriculture in the face of climate variability and change, assesses gaps and makes recommendations. This analysis helps highlight both challenges and opportunities for climate service efforts aimed at promoting climate resilient development and adaptation action

Tocilizumab for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. The single-arm TOCIVID-19 prospective trial

BackgroundTocilizumab blocks pro-inflammatory activity of interleukin-6 (IL-6), involved in pathogenesis of pneumonia the most frequent cause of death in COVID-19 patients.MethodsA multicenter, single-arm, hypothesis-driven trial was planned, according to a phase 2 design, to study the effect of tocilizumab on lethality rates at 14 and 30 days (co-primary endpoints, a priori expected rates being 20 and 35%, respectively). A further prospective cohort of patients, consecutively enrolled after the first cohort was accomplished, was used as a secondary validation dataset. The two cohorts were evaluated jointly in an exploratory multivariable logistic regression model to assess prognostic variables on survival.ResultsIn the primary intention-to-treat (ITT) phase 2 population, 180/301 (59.8%) subjects received tocilizumab, and 67 deaths were observed overall. Lethality rates were equal to 18.4% (97.5% CI: 13.6-24.0, P=0.52) and 22.4% (97.5% CI: 17.2-28.3, P<0.001) at 14 and 30 days, respectively. Lethality rates were lower in the validation dataset, that included 920 patients. No signal of specific drug toxicity was reported. In the exploratory multivariable logistic regression analysis, older age and lower PaO2/FiO2 ratio negatively affected survival, while the concurrent use of steroids was associated with greater survival. A statistically significant interaction was found between tocilizumab and respiratory support, suggesting that tocilizumab might be more effective in patients not requiring mechanical respiratory support at baseline.ConclusionsTocilizumab reduced lethality rate at 30 days compared with null hypothesis, without significant toxicity. Possibly, this effect could be limited to patients not requiring mechanical respiratory support at baseline.Registration EudraCT (2020-001110-38); clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04317092)