Reallocation and Learning over the Business Cycle

I show how cyclical aggregate shocks can stimulate structural reallocation activities, which in turn amplify the effect of the shock. I emphasize the informational aspects related to restructuring activities and their potential interplay with aggregate shocks. Building on work by Caplin and Leahy (1994), I develop a model in which production units are uncertain about the value of staying in the market and learn about it over time in a Bayesian fashion. In addition to their own private assessment, they can also learn from observing other units’ decisions. Given that adjusting is costly, each unit has an incentive to delay action and wait for other players to act in order to make a better informed decision. If delay is more costly in a downturn, a negative aggregate shock can break the inertia and induce the most pessimistic agents to exit. The information released by such actions will induce more action, thus generating a burst in restructuring activities that reinforces the initial effect of the aggregate shock. This process of information accumulation and revelation offers both a powerful amplification mechanism of relatively modest aggregate shocks and a potential explanation of why restructuring tends to be concentrated in recessions.business cycle, business organization learning

Firm Size Distribution and EPL in Italy

We study the role of employment protection legislation (EPL) in explaining the relative small average size of Italian firms. We construct a simple model that shows that the smooth relation between size and growth probability is disturbed in proximity of the thresholds at which EPL applies di.erentially. We use a comprehensive dataset of all Italian firms between 1986 and 1998 to estimate the e.ects of EPL in terms of discouraging small firms from growing. We then construct a stochastic transition matrix for firm size that, together with the estimates, allows for a quantitative evaluation of the e.ects of EPL in the long run. Our results show that EPL does influence firm size distribution, but that its e.ects are quantitatively modest: average firm size would increase by less than 1% when removing the threshold e.ect. In terms of policy, these findings suggest that changes in EPL are not likely to have a large impact on the propensity of small firms to growhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39999/3/wp613.pd

Exports and Wages: Rent Sharing, Workforce Composition or Returns to Skills?

We use linked employer-employee data from Italy to explore the relationship between exports and wages. Our empirical strategy exploits the 1992 devaluation of the Italian Lira, which represented a large and unforeseen shock to Italian firms’ incentives to export. The results indicate that the export wage premium is due to exporting firms both (a) paying a wage premium above what their workers would earn in the outside labor market – the “rent-sharing” effect, and (b) employing workers whose skills command a higher price after the devaluation – the “skill composition” effect. The latter effect only emerges once we allow for the value of individual skills to differ in the pre and post-devaluation periods. In fact, using a fixed measure of skills, as typically done in the literature, we would attribute the wage increase only to rent sharing. We also document that the export wage premium is larger for workers with more export-related experience. This indicates that the devaluation increased the demand for skills more useful for exporting, driving their relative price up

Threshold effects and firm size: The case of firing costs

We study the role of employment protection legislation (EPL) in determining firm size distribution. In many countries the provisions of EPL are more stringent for firms above certain size thresholds. We construct a simple model that shows that the smooth relation between size and growth probability is broken in proximity of the thresholds at which EPL applies differentially. We use a comprehensive longitudinal dataset of all Italian firms, a country with an important threshold at 15 employees, to estimate the effects of EPL in terms of discouraging small firms from growing. We find that the probability of growing of firms in the proximity of the threshold is reduced by around 2%. We then construct a stochastic transition matrix for firm size that, together with the estimates, allows for a quantitative evaluation of the effects of EPL in the long run. Our results show that EPL does influence firm size distribution, but that its effects are quantitatively modest: average firm size would increase by less than 1% when removing the threshold effect. Our results suggest that EPL is unlikely to be a major determinant of cross-country differences in firm size.Firm size distribution, Employment protection, Firing costs.

What determines entrepreneurial clusters?

We contrast two potential explanations of the substantial di¤erences in entrepreneurial activity observed across geographical areas: entry costs and external effects. We extend the Lucas model of entrepreneurship to allow for heterogeneous entry costs and for externalities that shift the distribution of entrepreneurial talents. We show that these assumptions have opposite predictions on the relation between entrepreneurial activity and .rm level TFP: with di¤erent entry costs, in areas with more entrepreneurs firms' average productivity should be lower and vice versa. We test these implications on a sample of Italian firms and unambiguously reject the entry costs explanation in favor of the externalities one. We also investigate the sources of external e¤ects, finding robust evidence that learning externalities are an important determinant of cross-sectional differences in entrepreneurial activity.Entrepreneurship, clustering, agglomeration economies

Entry barriers in Italian retail trade

The 1998 reform of the Italian retail trade sector delegated to the regional governments the regulation of entry of large retail shops. We use the local variation in regulation to determine the effects of entry barriers on firm performance for a representative sample of medium and large retail outlets. Using a diff-in-diff approach, we find that entry barriers are associated with substantially higher profit margins and substantially lower productivity of incumbent firms. We also find that liberalizing entry has a positive effect on investment in ICT, which the recent literature has shown to be the main driver of the remarkable sectoral productivity growth in the US. Finally, in the most liberal regions yearly inflation in the CPI component “food and beverages” was approximately half a percentage point lower than in the other regions: higher productivity coupled with lower margins resulted in lower consumer prices.entry barriers, productivity growth, technology adoption, retail trade

Identifying the Sources of Local Productivity Growth

Using firm-level based TFP indicators (as opposed to employment-based proxies) we estimate the effects of alternative sources of dynamic externalities at the local geographic level. Contrary to previous empirical work, we find that industrial specialization and scale indicators positively affect TFP growth at the city-industry level, while we do not find evidence that either the degree of local competition or productive variety impact on subsequent productivity growth. Employment-based regressions yield nearly the opposite results, in line with previous empirical work. We show that such regressions could suffer from serious identification problems when interpreted as evidence of dynamic externalities. This calls into question the conclusions of the existing literature on dynamic agglomeration economies.local growth, productivity, dynamic externalities

Information Spillovers and Factor Adjustment

We investigate the role of information spillovers (IS) in determining firms' labor adjustments. We test the proposition that information on relevant state variables spills over through one firm's decision to those of other firms, assuming that spillovers matter only among firms that are both similar and geographically close. From a large panel of manufacturing firms, we select those that are located in a given industrial district and produce the same goods. We propose a solution to the identification problemtypical of the empirical analysis of social effects. Our results show that firms' decisions are indeed affected by those of similar, neighboring firms, while the actions of firms not satisfying either of the criteria have no impact. We test other implications of the theory and find further supporting evidence of the relevance of IS. First, measures of extreme adjustments exert a stronger influence than mean adjustments; second, smaller firms seem to rely more on external sources of information; third, the effects depend on such characteristics of the reference group as its size and the presence of large firms. Finally, given that firms exposed to IS tend to adjust simultaneously, we find that spillovers amplify the effect of aggregate shocks and constitute a powerful mechanism of amplification of the business cycle.

Firm Size Distribution and Growth

We empirically characterize the sectoral distribution of firm size for a set of European countries, finding substantial differences. We then study the relationship between productivity growth at the sectoral level and size structure. We find a positive and robust association between average firm size and growth. Asking why size should matter for growth, we consider the role of innovative activity, to construct a test based on the differential effect of size on growth according to various indicators of R&D intensity at the sectoral level. Our results indicate that larger size fosters productivity growth because it allows firms to take advantage of all the increasing returns associated with R&D. We finally argue that our test can be interpreted as a test of reverse causality, which lends support to the view of firm size having a causal impact on growth.firm size;, growth; R&D.

Firm Size Distribution and EPL in Italy

We study the role of employment protection legislation (EPL) in explaining the relative small average size of Italian firms. We construct a simple model that shows that the smooth relation between size and growth probability is disturbed in proximity of the thresholds at which EPL applies di.erentially. We use a comprehensive dataset of all Italian firms between 1986 and 1998 to estimate the e.ects of EPL in terms of discouraging small firms from growing. We then construct a stochastic transition matrix for firm size that, together with the estimates, allows for a quantitative evaluation of the e.ects of EPL in the long run. Our results show that EPL does influence firm size distribution, but that its e.ects are quantitatively modest: average firm size would increase by less than 1% when removing the threshold e.ect. In terms of policy, these findings suggest that changes in EPL are not likely to have a large impact on the propensity of small firms to growFirm size distribution, Employment protection, Firing costs