Multiple shifts and fractional integration in the us and uk unemployment rates

This paper analyses the long-run behaviour of the US and UK unemployment rates by testing for possibly fractional orders of integration and multiple shifts using a sample of over 100 annual observations. The results show that the orders of integration are higher than 0 in both series, which implies long memory. If we assume that the underlying disturbances are white noise, the values are higher than 0.5, i.e., nonstationary. However, if the disturbances are autocorrelated, the orders of integration are in the interval (0, 0.5), implying stationarity and mean-reverting behaviour. Moreover, when multiple shifts are taken into account, unemployment is more persistent in the US than in the UK, implying the need for stronger policy action in the former to bring unemployment back to its original level

Risk of miscarriage after chorionic villus sampling.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of miscarriage associated to chorionic villus sampling (CVS). METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study performed in eight fetal-medicine units in Spain, Belgium and Bulgaria. Two populations were included: first, all singleton pregnancies attending to their first-trimester assessment in Murcia, Spain, and second, all singleton pregnancies having a CVS following first-trimester assessment at any of the participating centers. We used propensity score matching analysis to estimate the association between CVS and miscarriage. We compared risks of miscarriage of CVS and non-CVS groups after propensity score matching (1:1 ratio). This procedure creates two comparable groups balancing the maternal and pregnancy characteristics that lead to CVS, in a similar way in which randomization operates in a randomized clinical trial. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 22,250 participants in the non-CVS group and 3,613 in the CVS group. The incidence of miscarriage in the CVS group was 2.1% (77/3,613), which was significantly higher than the 0.9% (207/22,250) in the non-CVS group (p <0.001). The propensity score algorithm matched 2,122 CVS cases with 2,122 non-CVS cases including 40 (1.9%) and 55 (2.6%) miscarriages in the CVS and non-CVS groups, respectively (OR 0.72 [95% CI 0.48 to 1.10]; p = 0.146). However, we found a significant interaction between the CVS risk of miscarriage and the risk of aneuploidies, suggesting a different effect of the CVS for different baseline characteristics in such a way that, when the risk of aneuploidies is low, the risk after CVS increases (OR 2.87 [95% CI 1.13 to 7.30]) but when the risk is high, the risk after CVS is paradoxically reduced (OR 0.47 [95% CI 0.28 to 0.76]), presumably due to prenatal diagnosis and termination of major aneuploidies that would have otherwise resulted in spontaneous miscarriage. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of miscarriage in women having a CVS is about 1% higher than in women without CVS, although this excess risk is not entirely due to the invasive procedure but to some extent the demographic and pregnancy characteristics of the patient undergoing CVS. After accounting for these risk factors and confining the analysis to low-risk pregnancies, CVS seems to increase the risk of miscarriage about three times above the patient's background-risk. Although this is a substantial increase in relative terms, in pregnancies without risk factors, the risk of miscarriage after CVS will still remain low and similar to or slightly higher than that of the general population. For example, if her risk of aneuploidy is 1 in a 1,000 (0.1%), her risk of miscarriage after CVS will increase to 0.3% (0.2% higher)

Using self-organizing maps to investigate environmental factors regulating colony size and breeding success of the White Stork (Ciconia ciconia)

We studied variations in the size of breeding colonies and in breeding performance of White Storks Ciconia ciconia in 2006–2008 in north-east Algeria. Each colony site was characterized using 12 environmental variables describing the physical environment, land-cover categories, and human activities, and by three demographic parameters: the number of breeding pairs, the number of pairs with chicks, and the number of fledged chicks per pair. Generalized linear mixed models and the self-organizing map algorithm (SOM, neural network) were used to investigate effects of biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic factors on demographic parameters and on their relationships. Numbers of breeding pairs and of pairs with chicks were affected by the same environmental factors, mainly anthropogenic, which differed from those affecting the number of fledged chicks per pair. Numbers of fledged chicks per pair was not affected by colony size or by the number of nests with chicks. The categorization of the environmental variables into natural and anthropogenic, in connection with demographic parameters, was relevant to detect factors explaining variation in colony size and breeding parameters. The SOM proved a relevant tool to help determine actual dynamics in White Stork colonies, and thus to support effective conservation decisions at a regional scale

Can We Really Prevent Suicide?

Every year, suicide is among the top 20 leading causes of death globally for all ages. Unfortunately, suicide is difficult to prevent, in large part because the prevalence of risk factors is high among the general population. In this review, clinical and psychological risk factors are examined and methods for suicide prevention are discussed. Prevention strategies found to be effective in suicide prevention include means restriction, responsible media coverage, and general public education, as well identification methods such as screening, gatekeeper training, and primary care physician education. Although the treatment for preventing suicide is difficult, follow-up that includes pharmacotherapy, psychotherapy, or both may be useful. However, prevention methods cannot be restricted to the individual. Community, social, and policy interventions will also be essentia

Recovery of Meteorological Data for the Observatory of A Guarda, Spain

We herein describe the recovery of a series of data on temperature, humidity, precipitation, evaporation, wind, and local weather conditions from documentary sources obtained from the Jesuit observatory of A Guarda (Galicia, Spain) for the period 1881–1896. The data were digitized and made available in accessible electronic formats. Comparisons were made with present-day meteorological data obtained from two nearby stations. We further believe that the discovery of some new complementary documentary sources made during the present research could be a basis for future data recovery efforts. Among these new results, early ozone data from the period are of outstanding importance to meteorologists

Structure-based statistical analysis of transmembrane helices

Recent advances in determination of the high-resolution structure of membrane proteins now enable analysis of the main features of amino acids in transmembrane (TM) segments in comparison with amino acids in water-soluble helices. In this work, we conducted a large-scale analysis of the prevalent locations of amino acids by using a data set of 170 structures of integral membrane proteins obtained from the MPtopo database and 930 structures of water-soluble helical proteins obtained from the protein data bank. Large hydrophobic amino acids (Leu, Val, Ile, and Phe) plus Gly were clearly prevalent in TM helices whereas polar amino acids (Glu, Lys, Asp, Arg, and Gln) were less frequent in this type of helix. The distribution of amino acids along TM helices was also examined. As expected, hydrophobic and slightly polar amino acids are commonly found in the hydrophobic core of the membrane whereas aromatic (Trp and Tyr), Pro, and the hydrophilic amino acids (Asn, His, and Gln) occur more frequently in the interface regions. Charged amino acids are also statistically prevalent outside the hydrophobic core of the membrane, and whereas acidic amino acids are frequently found at both cytoplasmic and extra-cytoplasmic interfaces, basic amino acids cluster at the cytoplasmic interface. These results strongly support the experimentally demonstrated biased distribution of positively charged amino acids (that is, the so-called the positive-inside rule) with structural data

The Evolution of Compact Binary Star Systems

We review the formation and evolution of compact binary stars consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), and black holes (BHs). Binary NSs and BHs are thought to be the primary astrophysical sources of gravitational waves (GWs) within the frequency band of ground-based detectors, while compact binaries of WDs are important sources of GWs at lower frequencies to be covered by space interferometers (LISA). Major uncertainties in the current understanding of properties of NSs and BHs most relevant to the GW studies are discussed, including the treatment of the natal kicks which compact stellar remnants acquire during the core collapse of massive stars and the common envelope phase of binary evolution. We discuss the coalescence rates of binary NSs and BHs and prospects for their detections, the formation and evolution of binary WDs and their observational manifestations. Special attention is given to AM CVn-stars -- compact binaries in which the Roche lobe is filled by another WD or a low-mass partially degenerate helium-star, as these stars are thought to be the best LISA verification binary GW sources.Comment: 105 pages, 18 figure

Enhanced Astrocytic Nitric Oxide Production and Neuronal Modifications in the Neocortex of a NOS2 Mutant Mouse

BACKGROUND: It has been well accepted that glial cells in the central nervous system (CNS) produce nitric oxide (NO) through the induction of a nitric oxide synthase isoform (NOS2) only in response to various insults. Recently we described rapid astroglial, NOS2-dependent, NO production in the neocortex of healthy mice on a time scale relevant to neuronal activity. To explore a possible role for astroglial NOS2 in normal brain function we investigated a NOS2 knockout mouse (B6;129P2-Nos2(tm1Lau)/J, Jackson Laboratory). Previous studies of this mouse strain revealed mainly altered immune responses, but no compensatory pathways and no CNS abnormalities have been reported. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To our surprise, using NO imaging in brain slices in combination with biochemical methods we uncovered robust NO production by neocortical astrocytes of the NOS2 mutant. These findings indicate the existence of an alternative pathway that increases basal NOS activity. In addition, the astroglial mutation instigated modifications of neuronal attributes, shown by changes in the membrane properties of pyramidal neurons, and revealed in distinct behavioral abnormalities characterized by an increase in stress-related parameters. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results strongly indicate the involvement of astrocytic-derived NO in modifying the activity of neuronal networks. In addition, the findings corroborate data linking NO signaling with stress-related behavior, and highlight the potential use of this genetic model for studies of stress-susceptibility. Lastly, our results beg re-examination of previous studies that used this mouse strain to examine the pathophysiology of brain insults, assuming lack of astrocytic nitrosative reaction