Bayesian astrostatistics: a backward look to the future

This perspective chapter briefly surveys: (1) past growth in the use of Bayesian methods in astrophysics; (2) current misconceptions about both frequentist and Bayesian statistical inference that hinder wider adoption of Bayesian methods by astronomers; and (3) multilevel (hierarchical) Bayesian modeling as a major future direction for research in Bayesian astrostatistics, exemplified in part by presentations at the first ISI invited session on astrostatistics, commemorated in this volume. It closes with an intentionally provocative recommendation for astronomical survey data reporting, motivated by the multilevel Bayesian perspective on modeling cosmic populations: that astronomers cease producing catalogs of estimated fluxes and other source properties from surveys. Instead, summaries of likelihood functions (or marginal likelihood functions) for source properties should be reported (not posterior probability density functions), including nontrivial summaries (not simply upper limits) for candidate objects that do not pass traditional detection thresholds.Comment: 27 pp, 4 figures. A lightly revised version of a chapter in "Astrostatistical Challenges for the New Astronomy" (Joseph M. Hilbe, ed., Springer, New York, forthcoming in 2012), the inaugural volume for the Springer Series in Astrostatistics. Version 2 has minor clarifications and an additional referenc

Search for direct pair production of the top squark in all-hadronic final states in proton-proton collisions at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The results of a search for direct pair production of the scalar partner to the top quark using an integrated luminosity of 20.1fb−1 of proton–proton collision data at √s = 8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC are reported. The top squark is assumed to decay via t˜→tχ˜01 or t˜→ bχ˜±1 →bW(∗)χ˜01 , where χ˜01 (χ˜±1 ) denotes the lightest neutralino (chargino) in supersymmetric models. The search targets a fully-hadronic final state in events with four or more jets and large missing transverse momentum. No significant excess over the Standard Model background prediction is observed, and exclusion limits are reported in terms of the top squark and neutralino masses and as a function of the branching fraction of t˜ → tχ˜01 . For a branching fraction of 100%, top squark masses in the range 270–645 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 30 GeV. For a branching fraction of 50% to either t˜ → tχ˜01 or t˜ → bχ˜±1 , and assuming the χ˜±1 mass to be twice the χ˜01 mass, top squark masses in the range 250–550 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 60 GeV

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT

Community assessment to advance computational prediction of cancer drug combinations in a pharmacogenomic screen

The effectiveness of most cancer targeted therapies is short-lived. Tumors often develop resistance that might be overcome with drug combinations. However, the number of possible combinations is vast, necessitating data-driven approaches to find optimal patient-specific treatments. Here we report AstraZeneca's large drug combination dataset, consisting of 11,576 experiments from 910 combinations across 85 molecularly characterized cancer cell lines, and results of a DREAM Challenge to evaluate computational strategies for predicting synergistic drug pairs and biomarkers. 160 teams participated to provide a comprehensive methodological development and benchmarking. Winning methods incorporate prior knowledge of drug-target interactions. Synergy is predicted with an accuracy matching biological replicates for >60% of combinations. However, 20% of drug combinations are poorly predicted by all methods. Genomic rationale for synergy predictions are identified, including ADAM17 inhibitor antagonism when combined with PIK3CB/D inhibition contrasting to synergy when combined with other PI3K-pathway inhibitors in PIK3CA mutant cells

Search for R-parity-violating supersymmetry in events with four or more leptons in sqrt(s) =7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for new phenomena in final states with four or more leptons (electrons or muons) is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of $\sqrt{s}=7\;\mathrm{TeV}$ proton-proton collisions delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in two signal regions: one that requires moderate values of missing transverse momentum and another that requires large effective mass. The results are interpreted in a simplified model of R-parity-violating supersymmetry in which a 95% CL exclusion region is set for charged wino masses up to 540 GeV. In an R-parity-violating MSUGRA/CMSSM model, values of m 1/2 up to 820 GeV are excluded for 10 < tan β < 40

Measurement of the cross-section of high transverse momentum vector bosons reconstructed as single jets and studies of jet substructure in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a measurement of the cross-section for high transverse momentum W and Z bosons produced in pp collisions and decaying to all-hadronic final states. The data used in the analysis were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7 TeV;{\rm Te}{\rm V}$and correspond to an integrated luminosity of$4.6\;{\rm f}{{{\rm b}}^{-1}}$. The measurement is performed by reconstructing the boosted W or Z bosons in single jets. The reconstructed jet mass is used to identify the W and Z bosons, and a jet substructure method based on energy cluster information in the jet centre-of-mass frame is used to suppress the large multi-jet background. The cross-section for events with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson, with transverse momentum${{p}_{{\rm T}}}\gt 320\;{\rm Ge}{\rm V}$and pseudorapidity$|\eta |\lt 1.9$, is measured to be${{\sigma }_{W+Z}}=8.5\pm 1.7$ pb and is compared to next-to-leading-order calculations. The selected events are further used to study jet grooming techniques

Amyloid precursor protein drives down-regulation of mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation independent of amyloid beta

Amyloid precursor protein (APP) and its extracellular domain, soluble APP alpha (sAPPα) play important physiological and neuroprotective roles. However, rare forms of familial Alzheimer’s disease are associated with mutations in APP that increase toxic amyloidogenic cleavage of APP and produce amyloid beta (Aβ) at the expense of sAPPα and other non-amyloidogenic fragments. Although mitochondrial dysfunction has become an established hallmark of neurotoxicity, the link between Aβ and mitochondrial function is unclear. In this study we investigated the effects of increased levels of neuronal APP or Aβ on mitochondrial metabolism and gene expression, in human SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells. Increased non-amyloidogenic processing of APP, but not Aβ, profoundly decreased respiration and enhanced glycolysis, while mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) transcripts were decreased, without detrimental effects to cell growth. These effects cannot be ascribed to Aβ toxicity, since higher levels of endogenous Aβ in our models do not cause oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) perturbations. Similarly, chemical inhibition of β-secretase decreased mitochondrial respiration, suggesting that non-amyloidogenic processing of APP may be responsible for mitochondrial changes. Our results have two important implications, the need for caution in the interpretation of mitochondrial perturbations in models where APP is overexpressed, and a potential role of sAPPα or other non-amyloid APP fragments as acute modulators of mitochondrial metabolism

Reconstruction of primary vertices at the ATLAS experiment in Run 1 proton–proton collisions at the LHC

This paper presents the method and performance of primary vertex reconstruction in proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment during Run 1 of the LHC. The studies presented focus on data taken during 2012 at a centre-of-mass energy of √s=8 TeV. The performance has been measured as a function of the number of interactions per bunch crossing over a wide range, from one to seventy. The measurement of the position and size of the luminous region and its use as a constraint to improve the primary vertex resolution are discussed. A longitudinal vertex position resolution of about 30μm is achieved for events with high multiplicity of reconstructed tracks. The transverse position resolution is better than 20μm and is dominated by the precision on the size of the luminous region. An analytical model is proposed to describe the primary vertex reconstruction efficiency as a function of the number of interactions per bunch crossing and of the longitudinal size of the luminous region. Agreement between the data and the predictions of this model is better than 3% up to seventy interactions per bunch crossing

Measurements of normalized differential cross sections for tt̄ production in pp collisions at √(s)=7 TeV using the ATLAS detector

Measurements of normalized differential cross sections for top-quark pair production are presented as a function of the top-quark transverse momentum, and of the mass, transverse momentum, and rapidity of the t¯t system, in proton–proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of √s=7  TeV. The data set corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.6  fb−1, recorded in 2011 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Events are selected in the lepton+jets channel, requiring exactly one lepton and at least four jets with at least one of the jets tagged as originating from a b-quark. The measured spectra are corrected for detector efficiency and resolution effects and are compared to several Monte Carlo simulations and theory calculations. The results are in fair agreement with the predictions in a wide kinematic range. Nevertheless, data distributions are softer than predicted for higher values of the mass of the t¯t system and of the top-quark transverse momentum. The measurements can also discriminate among different sets of parton distribution functions

Flavor tagged time-dependent angular analysis of the B0s → J/ψϕ decay and extraction of ΔΓs and the weak phase ϕs in ATLAS

A measurement of the B0s→J/ψϕ decay parameters, updated to include flavor tagging is reported using 4.9  fb−¹ of integrated luminosity collected by the ATLAS detector from √s=7  TeV pp collisions recorded in 2011 at the LHC. The values measured for the physical parameters are ϕs=0.12±0.25(stat)±0.05(syst)  rad ΔΓs=0.053±0.021(stat)±0.010(syst)  ps−¹ Γs=0.677±0.007(stat)±0.004(syst)  ps−¹ |A∥(0)|2=0.220±0.008(stat)±0.009(syst) |A0(0)|2=0.529±0.006(stat)±0.012(syst) δ⊥=3.89±0.47(stat)±0.11(syst)  rad where the parameter ΔΓs is constrained to be positive. The S-wave contribution was measured and found to be compatible with zero. Results for ϕs and ΔΓs are also presented as 68% and 95% likelihood contours, which show agreement with the Standard Model expectations