Proposals in Support of the Development of a Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC)

Introduction: At COP2 in July 1996 New Zealand endorsed the adoption of legally binding commitments, subject to their achievement at least cost. This paper develops proposals which we consider would improve the prospects of collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at least cost. It builds on our submission of 15 January 1997 relating to mechanisms for flexibility.

Models meet data: Challenges and opportunities inimplementing land management in Earth system models

As the applications of Earth system models (ESMs) move from general climate projections toward questions of mitigation and adaptation, the inclusion of land management practices in these models becomes crucial. We carried out a survey among modeling groups to show an evolution from models able only to deal with land‐cover change to more sophisticated approaches that allow also for the partial integration of land management changes. For the longer term a comprehensive land management representation can be anticipated for all major models. To guide the prioritization of implementation, we evaluate ten land management practices—forestry harvest, tree species selection, grazing and mowing harvest, crop harvest, crop species selection, irrigation, wetland drainage, fertilization, tillage, and fire—for (1) their importance on the Earth system, (2) the possibility of implementing them in state‐of‐the‐art ESMs, and (3) availability of required input data. Matching these criteria, we identify “low‐hanging fruits” for the inclusion in ESMs, such as basic implementations of crop and forestry harvest and fertilization. We also identify research requirements for specific communities to address the remaining land management practices. Data availability severely hampers modeling the most extensive land management practice, grazing and mowing harvest, and is a limiting factor for a comprehensive implementation of most other practices. Inadequate process understanding hampers even a basic assessment of crop species selection and tillage effects. The need for multiple advanced model structures will be the challenge for a comprehensive implementation of most practices but considerable synergy can be gained using the same structures for different practices. A continuous and closer collaboration of the modeling, Earth observation, and land system science communities is thus required to achieve the inclusion of land management in ESMs

The quality of different types of child care at 10 and 18 months: a comparison between types and factors related to quality

The quality of care offered in four different types of non-parental child care to 307 infants at 10 months old and 331 infants at 18 months old was compared and factors associated with higher quality were identified. Observed quality was lowest in nurseries at each age point, except that at 18 months they offered more learning activities. There were few differences in the observed quality of care by child-minders, grandparents and nannies, although grandparents had somewhat lower safety and health scores and offered children fewer activities. Cost was largely unrelated to quality of care except in child-minding, where higher cost was associated with higher quality. Observed ratios of children to adults had a significant impact on quality of nursery care; the more infants or toddlers each adult had to care for, the lower the quality of the care she gave them. Mothers' overall satisfaction with their child's care was positively associated with its quality for home-based care but not for nursery settings

Experiences of childcare in England and socio‐emotional development at 36 months

In an English sample of 1016 families, use of childcare was investigated at 3, 10, 18 and 36 months. Child behaviour problems and social competence were assessed at 36 months by maternal questionnaire. There was no effect of the amount or type of childcare on disruptive behaviour at 36 months, the main predictors being maternal minority ethnic background and previous harsh maternal behaviour. Compliance and expressiveness were predicted by maternal sensitivity. Expressive behaviour was also associated with more childcare from 19 to 36 months, specifically nanny or nursery care. Overall there was no evidence of adverse consequences of childcare in the first three years, and some limited evidence of benefits

Family and child factors related to the use of non-maternal infant care: an English study

This paper explores factors related to the use, amount and type of non-maternal child care infants experience in their first year, reporting on a prospective longitudinal study of 1201 families recruited from two different regions in England. The selection and timing of non-maternal child care was investigated within a socio-ecological model that took account of child and family characteristics as well as maternal psychological factors. Family socio-demographic background (education, occupation and income level) was the most consistent predictor of the amount and nature of non-maternal care infants received. Infants who started in non-maternal child care before the age of 3 months were more likely to come from relatively disadvantaged families; in contrast the mothers of infants starting in child care between 4 and 10 months were more advantaged. Disadvantaged families were more likely to use familial care, while more advantaged families were likely to use purchased child care. Children who began non-maternal care later (3–10 months) and spent more hours in care were more likely to be from ethnic minorities (Asian) and have mothers who believed that maternal employment had more benefits and fewer risks for their child. First born children were also more likely to experience non-maternal care after the age of 3 months. Infants rated by their mothers at 3 months as less ‘adaptable’ in temperament and at 10 months as more ‘fussy’ spent more hours in child care. Finally, the type of child care selected was related to the families’ socio-economic background, maternal beliefs and attitudes, and birth order. Findings are compared with the US large scale National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) study and considered in the light of national policies

Prior to economic treatment of emissions and their uncertainties under the Kyoto Protocol: Scientific uncertainties that must be kept in mind

In a step-by-step exercise - beginning at full greenhouse gas accounting (FGA) and ending with the temporal detection of emission changes - we specify the relevant physical scientific constraints on carrying out temporal signal detection under the Kyoto Protocol and identify a number of scientific uncertainties that economic experts must consider before dealing with the economic aspects of emissions and their uncertainties under the Protocol. In addition, we answer one of the crucial questions that economic experts might pose: how credible in scientific terms are tradable emissions permits? Our exercise is meant to provide a preliminary basis for economic experts to carry out useful emissions trading assessments and specify the validity of their assessments from the scientific point of view, that is, in the general context of a FGA-uncertainty-verification framework. Such a basis is currently missing