A model predictive control approach to optimally devise a two-dose vaccination rollout: A case study on COVID-19 in Italy

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to the unprecedented challenge of devising massive vaccination rollouts, toward slowing down and eventually extinguishing the diffusion of the virus. The two-dose vaccination procedure, speed requirements, and the scarcity of doses, suitable spaces, and personnel, make the optimal design of such rollouts a complex problem. Mathematical modeling, which has already proved to be determinant in the early phases of the pandemic, can again be a powerful tool to assist public health authorities in optimally planning the vaccination rollout. Here, we propose a novel epidemic model tailored to COVID-19, which includes the effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions and a concurrent two-dose vaccination campaign. Then, we leverage nonlinear model predictive control to devise optimal scheduling of first and second doses, accounting both for the healthcare needs and for the socio-economic costs associated with the epidemics. We calibrate our model to the 2021 COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy. Specifically, once identified the epidemic parameters from officially reported data, we numerically assess the effectiveness of the obtained optimal vaccination rollouts for the two most used vaccines. Determining the optimal vaccination strategy is nontrivial, as it depends on the efficacy and duration of the first-dose partial immunization, whereby the prioritization of first doses and the delay of second doses may be effective for vaccines with sufficiently strong first-dose immunization. Our model and optimization approach provide a flexible tool that can be adopted to help devise the current COVID-19 vaccination campaign, and increase preparedness for future epidemics

Breeding of Cory's shearwater Calonectris borealis on Selvagem Grande and beneficial effects of removal of invasive mammals

The largest colony of Cory's shearwater Calonectris borealis nests on the island of Selvagem Grande in the north-eastern Atlantic. In 2002, a programme of eradication was conducted to remove two alien invasive mammals, the house mouse Mus musculus and European rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus. Preliminary studies recorded beneficial effects of the eradications for a variety of plant and animal species, including Cory's shearwater. We recorded fledging rates of shearwaters for 1982–2001, prior to the eradication, and for 2002–2020, after the eradication, from two quadrats, each containing 134–329 nest sites. Although there was annual fluctuation in fledging rates in the quadrats, the mean rate of 40.74 ±SD 3.92 fledglings per 100 nest sites for the two quadrats combined prior to the eradication of mammals increased significantly, to 52.88 ± SD 5.03 per 100 nest sites, after the eradications. Because the two mammals were removed synchronously it is difficult to know which factors depressed fledging of Cory's shearwaters on Selvagem Grande. However, the predatory behaviour of house mice on other oceanic islands, and the fact that increased fledging was seen soon after the eradications occurred, suggest predation by house mice on shearwater hatchlings was the main cause of losses

No effect of 14 day consumption of whole grain diet compared to refined grain diet on antioxidant measures in healthy, young subjects: a pilot study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Epidemiological evidence supports that a diet high in whole grains is associated with lowered risk of chronic diseases included coronary heart disease, obesity, type 2 diabetes, and some types of cancer. One potential mechanism for the protective properties of whole grains is their antioxidant content. The aim of this study was to compare differences in antioxidant measures when subjects consumed either refined or whole grain diets.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty healthy subjects took part in a randomized, crossover dietary intervention study. Subjects consumed either a refined grain or whole grain diet for 14 days and then the other diet for the next 14 days. Male subjects consumed 8 servings of grains per day and female subjects consumed 6 servings of grains per day. Blood and urine samples were collected at the end of each diet. Antioxidant measures included oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) in blood, and isoprostanes and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) in urine.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The whole grain diet was significantly higher in dietary fiber, vitamin B6, folate, selenium, copper, zinc, iron, magnesium and cystine compared to the refined grain diet. Despite high intakes of whole grains, no significant differences were seen in any of the antioxidant measures between the refined and whole grain diets.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>No differences in antioxidant measures were found when subjects consumed whole grain diets compared to refined grain diets.</p

Altered sirtuin expression is associated with node-positive breast cancer

Sirtuins are genes implicated in cellular and organismal ageing. Consequently, they are speculated to be involved in diseases of ageing including cancer. Various cancers with widely differing prognosis have been shown to have differing and characteristic expression of these genes; however, the relationship between sirtuin expression and cancer progression is unclear. In order to correlate cancer progression and sirtuin expression, we have assessed sirtuin expression as a function of primary cell ageing and compared sirtuin expression in normal, ‘nonmalignant' breast biopsies to breast cancer biopsies using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Levels of SIRT7 expression were significantly increased in breast cancer (P<0.0001). Increased levels of SIRT3 and SIRT7 transcription were also associated with node-positive breast cancer (P<0.05 and P<0.0001, respectively). This study has demonstrated differential sirtuin expression between nonmalignant and malignant breast tissue, with consequent diagnostic and therapeutic implications

Phylogenetic Relationships in Pterodroma Petrels Are Obscured by Recent Secondary Contact and Hybridization

The classification of petrels (Pterodroma spp.) from Round Island, near Mauritius in the Indian Ocean, has confounded researchers since their discovery in 1948. In this study we investigate the relationships between Round Island petrels and their closest relatives using evidence from mitochondrial DNA sequence data and ectoparasites. Far from providing clear delimitation of species boundaries, our results reveal that hybridization among species on Round Island has led to genetic leakage between populations from different ocean basins. The most common species on the island, Pterodroma arminjoniana, appears to be hybridizing with two rarer species (P. heraldica and P. neglecta), subverting the reproductive isolation of all three and allowing gene flow. P. heraldica and P. neglecta breed sympatrically in the Pacific Ocean, where P. arminjoniana is absent, but no record of hybridization between these two exists and they remain phenotypically distinct. The breakdown of species boundaries in Round Island petrels followed environmental change (deforestation and changes in species composition due to hunting) within their overlapping ranges. Such multi-species interactions have implications not only for conservation, but also for our understanding of the processes of evolutionary diversification and speciation

Breast cancer patients' clinical outcome measures are associated with Src kinase family member expression

&lt;p&gt;BACKGROUND: This study determined mRNA expression levels for Src kinase family (SFK) members in breast tissue specimens and assessed protein expression levels of prominent SFK members in invasive breast cancer to establish associations with clinical outcome. Ki67 was investigated to determine association between SFK members and proliferation.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;METHODS: The mRNA expression levels were assessed for eight SFK members by quantitative real-time PCR. Immunohistochemistry was performed for c-Src, Lyn, Lck and Ki67.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;RESULTS: mRNA expression was quantified in all tissue samples. SRC and LYN were the most highly expressed in malignant tissue. LCK was more highly expressed in oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative, compared with ER-positive tumours. High cytoplasmic Src kinase protein expression was significantly associated with decreased disease-specific survival. Lyn was not associated with survival at any cellular location. High membrane Lck expression was significantly associated with improved survival. Ki67 expression correlated with tumour grade and nuclear c-Src, but was not associated with survival.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;CONCLUSIONS: All eight SFK members were expressed in different breast tissues. Src kinase was highest expressed in breast cancer and had a negative impact on disease-specific survival. Membrane expression of Lck was associated with improved clinical outcome. High expression of Src kinase correlated with high proliferation.&lt;/p&gt

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

Ancient DNA of the Extinct Lava Shearwater (Puffinus olsoni) from the Canary Islands Reveals Incipient Differentiation within the P. puffinus Complex

The loss of species during the Holocene was, dramatically more important on islands than on continents. Seabirds from islands are very vulnerable to human-induced alterations such as habitat destruction, hunting and exotic predators. For example, in the genus Puffinus (family Procellariidae) the extinction of at least five species has been recorded during the Holocene, two of them coming from the Canary Islands

Global assessment of marine plastic exposure risk for oceanic birds

Plastic pollution is distributed patchily around the world’s oceans. Likewise, marine organisms that are vulnerable to plastic ingestion or entanglement have uneven distributions. Understanding where wildlife encounters plastic is crucial for targeting research and mitigation. Oceanic seabirds, particularly petrels, frequently ingest plastic, are highly threatened, and cover vast distances during foraging and migration. However, the spatial overlap between petrels and plastics is poorly understood. Here we combine marine plastic density estimates with individual movement data for 7137 birds of 77 petrel species to estimate relative exposure risk. We identify high exposure risk areas in the Mediterranean and Black seas, and the northeast Pacific, northwest Pacific, South Atlantic and southwest Indian oceans. Plastic exposure risk varies greatly among species and populations, and between breeding and non-breeding seasons. Exposure risk is disproportionately high for Threatened species. Outside the Mediterranean and Black seas, exposure risk is highest in the high seas and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the USA, Japan, and the UK. Birds generally had higher plastic exposure risk outside the EEZ of the country where they breed. We identify conservation and research priorities, and highlight that international collaboration is key to addressing the impacts of marine plastic on wide-ranging species

donor selection for adults and pediatrics

It is known that multiple factors impact on transplantation outcome; the heaviest ones are disease-related (disease refractoriness, phase, clonal abnormalities, etc. in malignancies and disease type and associated rejection risk in non-malignant diseases) and patient-related (age, comorbidities, infectious diseases/colonization, etc.). Moreover, donor-related issues and stem cell source may influence the extent of disease control and transplant-related mortality