A New monthly indicator of global real economic activity

In modelling macroeconomic time series, often a monthly indicator of global real economic activity is used. We propose a new indicator, named World steel production, and compare it to other existing indicators, precisely the Kilian’s index of global real economic activity and the index of OECD World industrial production. We develop an econometric approach based on desirable econometric properties in relation to the quarterly measure of World or global gross domestic product to evaluate and to choose across different alternatives. The method is designed to evaluate short-term, long-term and predictability properties of the indicators. World steel production is proven to be the best monthly indicator of global economic activity in terms of our econometric properties. Kilian’s index of global real economic activity also accurately predicts World GDP growth rates. When extending the analysis to an out-ofsample exercise, both Kilian’s index of global real economic activity and the World steel production produce accurate forecasts for World GDP, confirming evidence provided by the econometric properties. Specifically, a forecast combination of the three indices produces statistically significant gains up to 40% at nowcast and more than 10% at longer horizons relative to an autoregressive benchmark

World steel production: a new monthly indicator of global real economic activity

In this paper we propose a new indicator of monthly global real economic activity, named world steel production. We use world steel production, OECD industrial production index and Kilian’s rea index to forecast world real GDP, and key commodity prices. We find that world steel production generates large statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP and oil prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of the three indices produces statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, oil, natural gas, gold and fertilizer prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark

Renormalization group of probabilistic cellular automata with one absorbing state

We apply a recently proposed dynamically driven renormalization group scheme to probabilistic cellular automata having one absorbing state. We have found just one unstable fixed point with one relevant direction. In the limit of small transition probability one of the cellular automata reduces to the contact process revealing that the cellular automata are in the same universality class as that process, as expected. Better numerical results are obtained as the approximations for the stationary distribution are improved.Comment: Errors in some formulas have been corrected. Additional material available at http://mestre.if.usp.br/~javie

The egalitarian effect of search engines

Search engines have become key media for our scientific, economic, and social activities by enabling people to access information on the Web in spite of its size and complexity. On the down side, search engines bias the traffic of users according to their page-ranking strategies, and some have argued that they create a vicious cycle that amplifies the dominance of established and already popular sites. We show that, contrary to these prior claims and our own intuition, the use of search engines actually has an egalitarian effect. We reconcile theoretical arguments with empirical evidence showing that the combination of retrieval by search engines and search behavior by users mitigates the attraction of popular pages, directing more traffic toward less popular sites, even in comparison to what would be expected from users randomly surfing the Web.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, 2 appendices. The final version of this e-print has been published on the Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103(34), 12684-12689 (2006), http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/103/34/1268

Absence of epidemic threshold in scale-free networks with connectivity correlations

Random scale-free networks have the peculiar property of being prone to the spreading of infections. Here we provide an exact result showing that a scale-free connectivity distribution with diverging second moment is a sufficient condition to have null epidemic threshold in unstructured networks with either assortative or dissortative mixing. Connectivity correlations result therefore ininfluential for the epidemic spreading picture in these scale-free networks. The present result is related to the divergence of the average nearest neighbors connectivity, enforced by the connectivity detailed balance condition

Competition among memes in a world with limited attention

The wide adoption of social media has increased the competition among ideas for our finite attention. We employ a parsimonious agent-based model to study whether such a competition may affect the popularity of different memes, the diversity of information we are exposed to, and the fading of our collective interests for specific topics. Agents share messages on a social network but can only pay attention to a portion of the information they receive. In the emerging dynamics of information diffusion, a few memes go viral while most do not. The predictions of our model are consistent with empirical data from Twitter, a popular microblogging platform. Surprisingly, we can explain the massive heterogeneity in the popularity and persistence of memes as deriving from a combination of the competition for our limited attention and the structure of the social network, without the need to assume different intrinsic values among ideas

Disorder-induced phase transition in a one-dimensional model of rice pile

We propose a one-dimensional rice-pile model which connects the 1D BTW sandpile model (Phys. Rev. A 38, 364 (1988)) and the Oslo rice-pile model (Phys. Rev. lett. 77, 107 (1997)) in a continuous manner. We found that for a sufficiently large system, there is a sharp transition between the trivial critical behaviour of the 1D BTW model and the self-organized critical (SOC) behaviour. When there is SOC, the model belongs to a known universality class with the avalanche exponent $\tau=1.53$.Comment: 10 pages, 7 eps figure

Application of a renormalization group algorithm to nonequilibrium cellular automata with one absorbing state

We improve a recently proposed dynamically driven renormalization group algorithm for cellular automata systems with one absorbing state, introducing spatial correlations in the expression for the transition probabilities. We implement the renormalization group scheme considering three different approximations which take into account correlations in the stationary probability distribution. The improved scheme is applied to a probabilistic cellular automaton already introduced in the literature.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, to be published in Phys. Rev.

Roughness of Sandpile Surfaces

We study the surface roughness of prototype models displaying self-organized criticality (SOC) and their noncritical variants in one dimension. For SOC systems, we find that two seemingly equivalent definitions of surface roughness yields different asymptotic scaling exponents. Using approximate analytical arguments and extensive numerical studies we conclude that this ambiguity is due to the special scaling properties of the nonlinear steady state surface. We also find that there is no such ambiguity for non-SOC models, although there may be intermediate crossovers to different roughness values. Such crossovers need to be distinguished from the true asymptotic behaviour, as in the case of a noncritical disordered sandpile model studied in [10].Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Fluctuations and correlations in sandpile models

We perform numerical simulations of the sandpile model for non-vanishing driving fields $h$ and dissipation rates $\epsilon$. Unlike simulations performed in the slow driving limit, the unique time scale present in our system allows us to measure unambiguously response and correlation functions. We discuss the dynamic scaling of the model and show that fluctuation-dissipation relations are not obeyed in this system.Comment: 5 pages, latex, 4 postscript figure