Impact of baseline cases of cough and fever on UK COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates: estimates from the Bug Watch community cohort study [version 1; peer review: 1 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Background: Diagnostic testing forms a major part of the UK’s response to the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with tests offered to anyone with a continuous cough, high temperature or anosmia. Testing capacity must be sufficient during the winter respiratory season when levels of cough and fever are high due to non-COVID-19 causes. This study aims to make predictions about the contribution of baseline cough or fever to future testing demand in the UK. Methods: In this analysis of the Bug Watch prospective community cohort study, we estimated the incidence of cough or fever in England in 2018-2019. We then estimated the COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates required in the UK for baseline cough or fever cases for the period July 2020-June 2021. This was explored for different rates of the population requesting tests and four COVID-19 second wave scenarios. Estimates were then compared to current national capacity. Results: The baseline incidence of cough or fever in the UK is expected to rise rapidly from 154,554 (95%CI 103,083 - 231,725) cases per day in August 2020 to 250,708 (95%CI 181,095 - 347,080) in September, peaking at 444,660 (95%CI 353,084 - 559,988) in December. If 80% of baseline cough or fever cases request tests, average daily UK testing demand would exceed current capacity for five consecutive months (October 2020 to February 2021), with a peak demand of 147,240 (95%CI 73,978 - 239,502) tests per day above capacity in December 2020. Conclusions: Our results show that current national COVID-19 testing capacity is likely to be exceeded by demand due to baseline cough and fever alone. This study highlights that the UK’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic must ensure that a high proportion of people with symptoms request tests, and that testing capacity is immediately scaled up to meet this high predicted demand

The role of mutation rate variation and genetic diversity in the architecture of human disease

Background We have investigated the role that the mutation rate and the structure of genetic variation at a locus play in determining whether a gene is involved in disease. We predict that the mutation rate and its genetic diversity should be higher in genes associated with disease, unless all genes that could cause disease have already been identified. Results Consistent with our predictions we find that genes associated with Mendelian and complex disease are substantially longer than non-disease genes. However, we find that both Mendelian and complex disease genes are found in regions of the genome with relatively low mutation rates, as inferred from intron divergence between humans and chimpanzees, and they are predicted to have similar rates of non-synonymous mutation as other genes. Finally, we find that disease genes are in regions of significantly elevated genetic diversity, even when variation in the rate of mutation is controlled for. The effect is small nevertheless. Conclusions Our results suggest that gene length contributes to whether a gene is associated with disease. However, the mutation rate and the genetic architecture of the locus appear to play only a minor role in determining whether a gene is associated with disease

Parenchymal involvement on CT pulmonary angiography in SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant infection and correlation of COVID-19 CT severity score with clinical disease severity and short-term prognosis in a UK cohort

AIM: To determine if there is a difference in radiological, biochemical, or clinical severity between patients infected with Alpha-variant SARS-CoV-2 compared with those infected with pre-existing strains, and to determine if the computed tomography (CT) severity score (CTSS) for COVID-19 pneumonitis correlates with clinical severity and can prognosticate outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Blinded CTSS scoring was applied to 137 hospital patients who had undergone both CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA) and whole-genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 within 14 days of CTPA between 1/12/20–5/1/21. RESULTS: There was no evidence of a difference in imaging severity on CTPA, viral load, clinical parameters of severity, or outcomes between Alpha and preceding variants. CTSS on CTPA strongly correlates with clinical and biochemical severity at the time of CTPA, and with patient outcomes. Classifying CTSS into a binary value of “high” and “low”, with a cut-off score of 14, patients with a high score have a significantly increased risk of deterioration, as defined by subsequent admission to critical care or death (multivariate hazard ratio [HR] 2.76, p<0.001), and hospital length of stay (17.4 versus 7.9 days, p<0.0001). CONCLUSION: There was no evidence of a difference in radiological severity of Alpha variant infection compared with pre-existing strains. High CTSS applied to CTPA is associated with increased risk of COVID-19 severity and poorer clinical outcomes and may be of use particularly in settings where CT is not performed for diagnosis of COVID-19 but rather is used following clinical deterioration

The Impact of Recombination on Nucleotide Substitutions in the Human Genome

Unraveling the evolutionary forces responsible for variations of neutral substitution patterns among taxa or along genomes is a major issue for detecting selection within sequences. Mammalian genomes show large-scale regional variations of GC-content (the isochores), but the substitution processes at the origin of this structure are poorly understood. We analyzed the pattern of neutral substitutions in 1 Gb of primate non-coding regions. We show that the GC-content toward which sequences are evolving is strongly negatively correlated to the distance to telomeres and positively correlated to the rate of crossovers (R2 = 47%). This demonstrates that recombination has a major impact on substitution patterns in human, driving the evolution of GC-content. The evolution of GC-content correlates much more strongly with male than with female crossover rate, which rules out selectionist models for the evolution of isochores. This effect of recombination is most probably a consequence of the neutral process of biased gene conversion (BGC) occurring within recombination hotspots. We show that the predictions of this model fit very well with the observed substitution patterns in the human genome. This model notably explains the positive correlation between substitution rate and recombination rate. Theoretical calculations indicate that variations in population size or density in recombination hotspots can have a very strong impact on the evolution of base composition. Furthermore, recombination hotspots can create strong substitution hotspots. This molecular drive affects both coding and non-coding regions. We therefore conclude that along with mutation, selection and drift, BGC is one of the major factors driving genome evolution. Our results also shed light on variations in the rate of crossover relative to non-crossover events, along chromosomes and according to sex, and also on the conservation of hotspot density between human and chimp

The SR-BI Partner PDZK1 Facilitates Hepatitis C Virus Entry

Entry of hepatitis C virus (HCV) into hepatocytes is a multi-step process that involves a number of different host cell factors. Following initial engagement with glycosaminoglycans and the low-density lipoprotein receptor, it is thought that HCV entry proceeds via interactions with the tetraspanin CD81, scavenger receptor class B type I (SR-BI), and the tight-junction proteins claudin-1 (CLDN1) and occludin (OCLN), culminating in clathrin-dependent endocytosis of HCV particles and their pH-dependent fusion with endosomal membranes. Physiologically, SR-BI is the major receptor for high-density lipoproteins (HDL) in the liver, where its expression is primarily controlled at the post-transcriptional level by its interaction with the scaffold protein PDZK1. However, the importance of interaction with PDZK1 to the involvement of SR-BI in HCV entry is unclear. Here we demonstrate that stable shRNA-knockdown of PDZK1 expression in human hepatoma cells significantly reduces their susceptibility to HCV infection, and that this effect can be reversed by overexpression of full length PDZK1 but not the first PDZ domain of PDZK1 alone. Furthermore, we found that overexpression of a green fluorescent protein chimera of the cytoplasmic carboxy-terminus of SR-BI (amino acids 479–509) in Huh-7 cells resulted in its interaction with PDZK1 and a reduced susceptibility to HCV infection. In contrast a similar chimera lacking the final amino acid of SR-BI (amino acids 479–508) failed to interact with PDZK1 and did not inhibit HCV infection. Taken together these results indicate an indirect involvement of PDZK1 in HCV entry via its ability to interact with SR-BI and enhance its activity as an HCV entry factor

Quantifying Adaptive Evolution in the Drosophila Immune System

It is estimated that a large proportion of amino acid substitutions in Drosophila have been fixed by natural selection, and as organisms are faced with an ever-changing array of pathogens and parasites to which they must adapt, we have investigated the role of parasite-mediated selection as a likely cause. To quantify the effect, and to identify which genes and pathways are most likely to be involved in the host–parasite arms race, we have re-sequenced population samples of 136 immunity and 287 position-matched non-immunity genes in two species of Drosophila. Using these data, and a new extension of the McDonald-Kreitman approach, we estimate that natural selection fixes advantageous amino acid changes in immunity genes at nearly double the rate of other genes. We find the rate of adaptive evolution in immunity genes is also more variable than other genes, with a small subset of immune genes evolving under intense selection. These genes, which are likely to represent hotspots of host–parasite coevolution, tend to share similar functions or belong to the same pathways, such as the antiviral RNAi pathway and the IMD signalling pathway. These patterns appear to be general features of immune system evolution in both species, as rates of adaptive evolution are correlated between the D. melanogaster and D. simulans lineages. In summary, our data provide quantitative estimates of the elevated rate of adaptive evolution in immune system genes relative to the rest of the genome, and they suggest that adaptation to parasites is an important force driving molecular evolution

Impaired dermal wound healing in discoidin domain receptor 2-deficient mice associated with defective extracellular matrix remodeling

Background The wounding response relies on tightly regulated crosstalk between recruited fibroblasts and the collagenous extracellular matrix (ECM). Discoidin domain receptor 2 (DDR2) is a tyrosine kinase receptor for fibrillar collagen expressed during pathologic scarring, for example wound healing, arthritis and cancer. We have previously shown that DDR2 phosphorylation drives key wounding responses in skin fibroblasts including proliferation, chemotactic migration and secretion of both metalloproteinases and fibrillar collagen. In this study we compared healing of cutaneous wounds in DDR2+/+ and DDR2-/- mice and analyzed specific fibroblast responses. Results Cutaneous wound healing was significantly delayed in DDR2-/- mice compared with DDR2+/+ animals. Reduced α-smooth muscle actin (αSMA) expression and matrix metalloproteinase 2 (MMP2) activity in the DDR2-/- wound extracts indicated defective recruitment of skin fibroblasts. DDR2-/- wounds showed decreased tensile strength during healing, which correlated with a significant reduction in collagen content and defective collagen crosslinking. Non-wounded skin in DDR2-/- mice expressed less mRNA of the crosslinking enzymes lysyl oxidase (LOX), lysyl hydroxylase1 (LH1) and matricellular 'secreted protein, acidic and rich in cysteine' (SPARC; also known as osteonectin). Skin fibroblasts isolated from DDR2-/- mice displayed altered mRNA expression of a cluster of collagens, proteoglycans, integrins and MMPs that have been previously correlated with DDR2 expression, and reduced LOX, LH1 and SPARC mRNA levels and proteins. Stable reconstitution of wild-type DDR2 by retroviral infection restored LOX, LH1 and SPARC mRNA and protein levels in DDR2-/- fibroblasts. Contraction of collagen gels was reduced in DDR2-/- fibroblasts, accompanied by significantly reduced phosphorylated SrcY418. Inhibition of either LOX activity by β-aminoproprionitrile or MMP activity by N-[(2R)-2-(hydroxamido carbonylmethyl)-4-methylpentanoyl]-l-tryptophan methylamide (GM6001) reduced collagen gel contraction by skin fibroblasts after DDR2 induction with soluble collagen type I. Conclusions DDR2 contributes to skin fibroblast responses during tissue injury. Defective synthesis of collagen type I, crosslinking molecules and MMP2 predispose DDR2-/- mice to defective dermal wounding

Maternal depression is associated with DNA methylation changes in cord blood T lymphocytes and adult hippocampi

Depression affects 10-15% of pregnant women and has been associated with preterm delivery and later developmental, behavioural and learning disabilities. We tested the hypothesis that maternal depression is associated with DNA methylation alterations in maternal T lymphocytes, neonatal cord blood T lymphocytes and adult offspring hippocampi. Genome-wide DNA methylation of CD3+ T lymphocytes isolated from 38 antepartum maternal and 44 neonatal cord blood samples were analyzed using Illumina Methylation 450 K microarrays. Previously obtained methylation data sets using methylated DNA immunoprecipitation and array-hybridization of 62 postmortem hippocampal samples of adult males were re-analyzed to test associations with history of maternal depression. We found 145 (false discovery rate (FDR) q<0.05) and 2520 (FDR q<0.1) differentially methylated CG-sites in cord blood T lymphocytes of neonates from the maternal depression group as compared with the control group. However, no significant DNA methylation differences were detected in the antepartum maternal T lymphocytes of our preliminary data set. We also detected 294 differentially methylated probes (FDR q<0.1) in hippocampal samples associated with history of maternal depression. We observed a significant overlap (P=0.002) of 33 genes with changes in DNA methylation in T lymphocytes of neonates and brains of adult offspring. Many of these genes are involved in immune system functions. Our results show that DNA methylation changes in offspring associated with maternal depression are detectable at birth in the immune system and persist to adulthood in the brain. This is consistent with the hypothesis that system-wide epigenetic changes are involved in life-long responses to maternal depression in the offspring. © 2015 Translational Psychiatry

Effect of Host Species on the Distribution of Mutational Fitness Effects for an RNA Virus

Knowledge about the distribution of mutational fitness effects (DMFE) is essential for many evolutionary models. In recent years, the properties of the DMFE have been carefully described for some microorganisms. In most cases, however, this information has been obtained only for a single environment, and very few studies have explored the effect that environmental variation may have on the DMFE. Environmental effects are particularly relevant for the evolution of multi-host parasites and thus for the emergence of new pathogens. Here we characterize the DMFE for a collection of twenty single-nucleotide substitution mutants of Tobacco etch potyvirus (TEV) across a set of eight host environments. Five of these host species were naturally infected by TEV, all belonging to family Solanaceae, whereas the other three were partially susceptible hosts belonging to three other plant families. First, we found a significant virus genotype-by-host species interaction, which was sustained by differences in genetic variance for fitness and the pleiotropic effect of mutations among hosts. Second, we found that the DMFEs were markedly different between Solanaceae and non-Solanaceae hosts. Exposure of TEV genotypes to non-Solanaceae hosts led to a large reduction of mean viral fitness, while the variance remained constant and skewness increased towards the right tail. Within the Solanaceae hosts, the distribution contained an excess of deleterious mutations, whereas for the non-Solanaceae the fraction of beneficial mutations was significantly larger. All together, this result suggests that TEV may easily broaden its host range and improve fitness in new hosts, and that knowledge about the DMFE in the natural host does not allow for making predictions about its properties in an alternative host