Dairy herd mastitis and reproduction: using simulation to aid interpretation of results from discrete time survival analysis

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) is a simulation-based technique for evaluating the relative importance of different inputs to a complex process model. It is commonly employed in decision analysis and for evaluation of the potential impact of uncertainty in research findings on clinical practice, but has a wide variety of other possible applications. In this example, it was used to evaluate the association between herd-level udder health and reproductive performance in dairy herds. Although several recent studies have found relatively large associations between mastitis and fertility at the level of individual inseminations or lactations, the current study demonstrated that herd-level intramammary infection status is highly unlikely to have a clinically significant impact on the overall reproductive performance of a dairy herd under typical conditions. For example, a large increase in incidence rate of clinical mastitis (from 92 to 131 cases per 100 cows per year) would be expected to increase a herd's modified FERTEX score (a cost-based measure of overall reproductive performance) by just £4.501 per cow per year. The herd's background level of submission rate (proportion of eligible cows served every 21 days) and pregnancy risk (proportion of inseminations leading to a pregnancy) correlated strongly with overall reproductive performance and explained a large proportion of the between-herd variation in performance. PSA proved to be a highly useful technique to aid understanding of results from a complex statistical model, and has great potential for a wide variety of applications within the field of veterinary science

Direct and indirect effects of Johne's disease on farm and animal productivity in an Irish dairy herd

Johne's disease (JD) is caused by infection with the organism Mycobacterium avium spp. paratuberculosis, leading to chronic diarrhoea and ill thrift in adult cattle. JD is considered to adversely affect farm performance and profitability. This retrospective case study was undertaken on a single commercial dairy herd in the south west of Ireland. Animal production records were interrogated to assess the effect of JD on milk yield (total kg per lactation), somatic cell count (the geometric mean over the lactation), reasons for culling, cull price and changes in herd parity structure over time. JD groups were defined using clinical signs and test results. One control animal was matched to each case animal on parity number and year. Specific lactations (clinical, pre-clinical and test-positive only) from 1994 to 2004 were compared between JD case and control cows. A significantly lower milk yield (1259.3 kg/lactation) was noted from cows with clinical JD in comparison to their matched control group. Clinical animals had an average cull price of €516 less than animals culled without signs of clinical disease. In contrast, little effect was noted for sub-clinical infections. These direct effects of JD infections, in combination with increased culling for infertility and increasing replacement rates, had a negative impact on farm production. Results from this study provide preliminary information regarding the effects of JD status on both herd and animal-level performance in Ireland

Reproductive performance of Norwegian cattle from 1985 to 2005: trends and seasonality

Declining reproductive performance is a serious breeding concern in many countries. To reveal the situation in Norwegian cattle, trends in reproductive performance were studied using insemination reports from 1985 to 2005 and data based on herd recording files from 1989 to 2005. The total number of first services was 469.765 in 1985 declining to 335.712 in 2005. The number of recorded herds and animals declined from 21.588 to 14.718 and 360.289 to 309.452 from 1989 to 2005, respectively. Sixty days non-return rate after single inseminations (NR60) increased from 68.1 in 1985 to 72.7% in 2005 (p < 0.001) and the number of services per inseminated animal (NIA) decreased from 1.8 to 1.6 (p < 0.001) from 1985 to 2005. However, return rates 0–3 days post insemination (RR0-3) increased from 6 to 12% in the same period (p < 0.001). NR60 was higher and the RR0-3 was lower in the summer season compared to the winter season during the whole period. A fertility index (FS), has been calculated from the herd recording files each year from 1989 to 2005. The average FS-index did not show a significant trend and the calving interval was also fairly constant between 12.4 and 12.6 months during this period. The average interval from calving to first and last insemination, respectively, increased from a low of 79 and 102 days in 1990 to a high of 86 and 108 days in 2005. Both intervals were consistently longer for cows in first lactation than for cows in later lactations. The percentage of inseminated animals reported culled because of poor fertility decreased from 6.0% in 1989 to 4.6% in 1996 and thereafter again increased to 6% in 2005. In conclusion, most fertility measures, mainly comprising the Norwegian Red (NRF) breed, show a relatively high level of reproductive performance with a positive or a relatively constant trend during the last two decades

Ecological Meltdown in the Firth of Clyde, Scotland: Two Centuries of Change in a Coastal Marine Ecosystem

BACKGROUND: The Firth of Clyde is a large inlet of the sea that extends over 100 km into Scotland\u27s west coast. METHODS: We compiled detailed fisheries landings data for this area and combined them with historical accounts to build a picture of change due to fishing activity over the last 200 years. FINDINGS: In the early 19th century, prior to the onset of industrial fishing, the Firth of Clyde supported diverse and productive fisheries for species such as herring (Clupea harengus, Clupeidae), cod (Gadus morhua, Gadidae), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus, Gadidae), turbot (Psetta maxima, Scophthalmidae) and flounder (Platichthys flesus, Pleuronectidae). The 19th century saw increased demand for fish, which encouraged more indiscriminate methods of fishing such as bottom trawling. During the 1880s, fish landings began to decline, and upon the recommendation of local fishers and scientists, the Firth of Clyde was closed to large trawling vessels in 1889. This closure remained in place until 1962 when bottom trawling for Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus, Nephropidae) was approved in areas more than three nautical miles from the coast. During the 1960s and 1970s, landings of bottomfish increased as trawling intensified. The trawl closure within three nautical miles of the coast was repealed in 1984 under pressure from the industry. Thereafter, bottomfish landings went into terminal decline, with all species collapsing to zero or near zero landings by the early 21st century. Herring fisheries collapsed in the 1970s as more efficient mid-water trawls and fish finders were introduced, while a fishery for mid-water saithe (Pollachius virens, Gadidae) underwent a boom and bust shortly after discovery in the late 1960s. The only commercial fisheries that remain today are for Nephrops and scallops (Pecten maximus, Pectinidae). SIGNIFICANCE: The Firth of Clyde is a marine ecosystem nearing the endpoint of overfishing, a time when no species remain that are capable of sustaining commercial catches. The evidence suggests that trawl closures helped maintain productive fisheries through the mid-20th century, and their reopening precipitated collapse of bottomfish stocks. We argue that continued intensive bottom trawling for Nephrops with fine mesh nets will prevent the recovery of other species. This once diverse and highly productive environment will only be restored if trawl closures or other protected areas are re-introduced. The Firth of Clyde represents at a small scale a process that is occurring ocean-wide today, and its experience serves as a warning to others

Linking disease epidemiology and livestock productivity: the case of bovine respiratory disease in France

Concerns are growing over the impact of livestock farming on environment and public health. The livestock industry is faced with the double constraint of limiting its use of natural resources and antimicrobials while ensuring its economic sustainability. In this context, reliable methods are needed to evaluate the effect of the prevention of endemic animal diseases on the productivity of livestock production systems. In this study, an epidemiological and productivity model was used to link changes in Bovine Respiratory Disease (BRD) incidence with the productivity of the beef and dairy cattle sectors in France. Cattle production parameters significantly affected by BRD were selected through literature review. Previous field study results and national cattle performance estimates were used to infer growth performances, mortality rates and carcass quality in the cattle affected and not affected by BRD. A steady-state deterministic herd production model was used to predict the productivity of the dairy and beef sector and their defined compartments (breeding-fattening, feedlot young bulls, and feedlot veal) in case of BRD incidence reduction by 20%, 50% or 100%. Results suggested that BRD should be controlled at a priority in beef breeding farms as eradication of BRD in beef calves would increase the whole beef sector’s productivity by 4.7–5.5% while eradication in other production stages would result in lower productivity gain in their respective sectors. However, the analysis performed at compartment level showed that, in both the beef and dairy sector, young bull and veal feedlot enterprises derive more economic benefits from BRD eradication for their own compartment (increase in productivity of 8.7–12.8% for beef young bulls) than the breeding farms (increase in productivity of 5.1–6% for beef calves), which may limit the investments in BRD control

Polymorphisms in the selectin gene cluster are associated with fertility and survival time in a population of Holstein Friesian cows

Selectins are adhesion molecules, which mediate attachment between leucocytes and endothelium. They aid extravasation of leucocytes from blood into inflamed tissue during the mammary gland’s response to infection. Selectins are also involved in attachment of the conceptus to the endometrium and subsequent placental development. Poor fertility and udder health are major causes for culling dairy cows. The three identified bovine selectin genes SELP, SELL and SELE are located in a gene cluster. SELP is the most polymorphic of these genes. Several SNP in SELP and SELE are associated with human vascular disease, while SELP SNP rs6127 has been associated with recurrent pregnancy loss in women. This study describes the results of a gene association study for SNP in SELP (n = 5), SELL (n = 2) and SELE (n = 1) with fertility, milk production and longevity traits in a population of 337 Holstein Friesian dairy cows. Blood samples for PCR-RFLP were collected at 6 months of age and animals were monitored until either culling or 2,340 days from birth. Three SNP in SELPEx4-6 formed a haplotype block containing a Glu/Ala substitution at rs42312260. This region was associated with poor fertility and reduced survival times. SELPEx8 (rs378218397) coded for a Val475Met variant locus in the linking region between consensus repeats 4 and 5, which may influence glycosylation. The synonymous SNP rs110045112 in SELEEx14 deviated from Hardy Weinberg equilibrium. For both this SNP and rs378218397 there were too few AA homozygotes present in the population and AG heterozygotes had significantly worse fertility than GG homozygotes. Small changes in milk production associated with some SNP could not account for the reduced fertility and only SELPEx6 showed any association with somatic cell count. These results suggest that polymorphisms in SELP and SELE are associated with the likelihood of successful pregnancy, potentially through compromised implantation and placental development

Urban coral reefs: Degradation and resilience of hard coral assemblages in coastal cities of East and Southeast Asia

© 2018 The Author(s) Given predicted increases in urbanization in tropical and subtropical regions, understanding the processes shaping urban coral reefs may be essential for anticipating future conservation challenges. We used a case study approach to identify unifying patterns of urban coral reefs and clarify the effects of urbanization on hard coral assemblages. Data were compiled from 11 cities throughout East and Southeast Asia, with particular focus on Singapore, Jakarta, Hong Kong, and Naha (Okinawa). Our review highlights several key characteristics of urban coral reefs, including “reef compression” (a decline in bathymetric range with increasing turbidity and decreasing water clarity over time and relative to shore), dominance by domed coral growth forms and low reef complexity, variable city-specific inshore-offshore gradients, early declines in coral cover with recent fluctuating periods of acute impacts and rapid recovery, and colonization of urban infrastructure by hard corals. We present hypotheses for urban reef community dynamics and discuss potential of ecological engineering for corals in urban areas