Value Allocation in Regional Shopping Centers

Understanding consumer shopping patterns is essential in estimating the value of regional shopping centers. Consumer shopping behavior determines retail sales at regional shopping centers which, in turn, impacts shopping center rents and value. This article quantifies the effects of consumer shopping behavior on nonanchor tenant sales in regional shopping centers. The results of this study reveal that the effects of location, comparison shopping, and department store image are important in estimating shopping center patronage and retail sales. They also indicate that the value of a mall can be allocated to real estate and non-real estate value

Inter-Center Retail Externalities

This paper empirically examines inter-center externalities in regional shopping centers. Specifically, we use a non-linear retail share model to measure the impact that department store size and image in subject and competitive centers have on subject center in-line retail sales. Our findings reveal that department store size and image attributes have a significant and non-linear impact on subject center sales. More importantly, the results show that the effect of department store fashion image dominates that of department store size

A Descriptive Analysis of U.S. Housing Demand for the 1990s

We analyze the effect of changes in type of household formation (i.e., single person, single parent, married couple, etc.) on the demand for housing and segment income by household type to determine housing tenure. Using data disaggregated by household type, we forecast housing demand for the United States through the turn ofthe century. The results indicate that total housing demand for the decade will be 11.8 million units, of which 8.1 million will be owner-occupied and 3.7 million will be renter-occupied

An Empirical Examination of Traditional Neighborhood Development

This study analyzes the impact of the new urbanism on single-family home prices. Specifically, we explore the price differential that homebuyers pay for houses in new urbanist developments relative to houses in conventional suburban developments. Using data on over 5,000 single-family home sales from 1994 to 1997 in three different neighborhoods, hedonic regression results reveal that consumers pay more for homes in new urbanist communities than those in conventional suburban developments. Further analyses indicate that the price premium is not attributable to differences in improvement age and other housing characteristics

The Graaskamp Legacy

James A. Graaskamp\u27s perspective on classroom education and his alternative research paradigm pioneered or greatly enhanced several real estate principles that are more relevant today than during his life. These principles are summarized and presented in 5 sections: A Different Brand of Research, The Development Feasibility, How Appraisers Value, Who\u27s Watching the Chicken Coop, and Teaching an Ethical Vision

A Descriptive Analysis of the Retail Real Estate Markets at the Metropolitan Level

Gross Leasable Area (GLA) per capita is a commonly used measure to compare the retail market potential across different retail real estate markets. This study uses GLA per capita to assess the supply of the retail space across fifty-eight metropolitan areas in the United States. After a detailed descriptive analysis of the supply of retail space, we estimate GLA per capita for each metropolitan area using a modified version of the stock adjustment model. Initial findings indicate that the retail construction boom of the 1980s was not a boom at all and that GLA per capita can be predicted using a multi-factor model

The Evolution of Shopping Center Research: A Review and Analysis

Retail research has evolved over the past sixty years. Christaller\u27s early work on central place theory, with its simplistic combination of range and threshold has been advanced to include complex consumer shopping patterns and retailer behavior in agglomerated retail centers. Hotelling\u27s seminal research on competition in a spatial duopoly has been realized in the form of comparison shopping in regional shopping centers. The research that has followed Christaller and Hoteling has been as wide as it has been deep, including literature in geography, economics, finance, marketing, and real estate. In combination, the many extensions of central place theory and retail agglomeration economics have clearly enhanced the understanding of both retailer and consumer behavior. In addition to these two broad areas of shopping center research, two more narrowly focused areas of research have emerged. The most recent focus in the literature has been on the positive effects large anchor tenants have on smaller non-anchor tenant sales. These positive effects are referred to as retail demand externalities. Exploring the theoretical basis for the valuation of shopping centers has been another area of interest to researchers. The primary focus of this literature is based in the valuation of current and expected lease contracts

How Critical is a Good Location to a Regional Shopping Center?

The goal of this paper is to empirically measure the consumer utility trade-off between store location (i.e., distance to a shopping center) and retail agglomeration in regional shopping centers. Using the Lakshmanan and Hansen retail expenditure model, our findings reveal that the distance specification is of surprisingly little importance in explaining retail sales. Conversely, agglomeration economies were of significant importance in explaining consumer patronage at regional shopping centers. The implication of these results is that smaller regional shopping centers may be dominated by large super-regional shopping centers with the smaller one or two anchor regional shopping centers unable to compete with the larger, many-anchored super-regional shopping centers

Term Default, Balloon Risk, and Credit Risk in Commercial Mortgages

Term default and balloon risk play an interactive role in the pricing of credit risk in commercial mortgages. Most commercial mortgage pricing studies assume a borrower\u27s default decision is based solely on the property value; the mortgage valuation model here also incorporates a property income trigger. The model considers both the risk of default during the term of the loan and the risk of loss at maturity (balloon risk). Monte Carlo simulation analyses reveal that pricing models based solely on property value overestimate the probability of term default and the resulting credit risk premium. Adding a property income default trigger without considering balloon risk, however, underestimates the overall credit risk premium. In essence, a double-trigger default model that incorporates balloon risk is critical for accurate assessment of the credit risk in commercial mortgages