Optimization as an analysis tool for human complex decision making

We present a problem class of mixed-integer nonlinear programs (MINLPs) with nonconvex continuous relaxations which stem from economic test scenarios that are used in the analysis of human complex problem solving. In a round-based scenario participants hold an executive function. A posteriori a performance indicator is calculated and correlated to personal measures such as intelligence, working memory, or emotion regulation. Altogether, we investigate 2088 optimization problems that differ in size and initial conditions, based on real-world experimental data from 12 rounds of 174 participants. The goals are twofold. First, from the optimal solutions we gain additional insight into a complex system, which facilitates the analysis of a participant’s performance in the test. Second, we propose a methodology to automatize this process by providing a new criterion based on the solution of a series of optimization problems. By providing a mathematical optimization model and this methodology, we disprove the assumption that the “fruit fly of complex problem solving,” the Tailorshop scenario that has been used for dozens of published studies, is not mathematically accessible—although it turns out to be extremely challenging even for advanced state-of-the-art global optimization algorithms and we were not able to solve all instances to global optimality in reasonable time in this study. The publicly available computational tool Tobago [TOBAGO web site https://sourceforge.net/projects/tobago] can be used to automatically generate problem instances of various complexity, contains interfaces to AMPL and GAMS, and is hence ideally suited as a testbed for different kinds of algorithms and solvers. Computational practice is reported with respect to the influence of integer variables, problem dimension, and local versus global optimization with different optimization codes

Spectroscopic Behavior of Composite, Black Thermal Paint, Solar Cell, and Multi-layered Insulation Materials in a GEO Simulated Environment

Materials currently populating Earth orbital regimes can be distinguished by comparing remote observational data to that of optical material measurements obtained in the laboratory. Experimentation for this research primarily involved the acquisition of spectroscopic measurements on materials of interest to the telescopic observational community for enhanced space situational awareness. Common spacecraft materials worthy of preeminent analysis for this investigation include a carbon-carbon (c-c) matrix composite, various black thermal paints, a GPS solar cell and three different cover glass components. These materials were subjected to a simulated geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) space environment with the intent of observing material optical property behavior over quantitative exposure time. The aforementioned materials have been measured in their pristine and GEO simulated exposed conditions. A reflectance spectrometer and a bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) optical system have been operated to perform material characterization, optical property analysis, and to further compare such data to telescopic observational data acquired on equal materials

Spectroscopic Behavior of Composite, Black Thermal Paint, Solar Cell, and Multi-Layered Insulation Materials in a GEO Simulated Environment

The population of objects orbiting Earth is dominated by orbital debris. The following study presents reflectance spectroscopic measurements and bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) evaluations taken on common spacecraft materials (Table 1), some of which are likely candidates in the orbital debris population. Their optical properties were assessed in their pristine conditions, as well as after exposure in a space environmental chamber used to simulate space weathering. The materials studied will prove that they have excellent properties in resisting the effects of damage that are common in both low Earth orbit and geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) based on the research discussed in this work

Generation of Tunable Narrow Bandwidth Nanosecond Pulses in the Deep Ultraviolet for Efficient Optical Pumping and High Resolution Spectroscopy

Nanosecond optical pulses with high power and spectral brightness in the deep ultraviolet (UV) region have been produced by sum frequency mixing of nearly transform-limited-bandwidth IR light originating from a home-built injection-seeded ring cavityoptical parametric oscillator(OPO) and the fourth harmonic beam of an injection-seeded Nd:YAG laser used simultaneously to pump the OPO with the second harmonic. We demonstrate UV output, tunable from 204 to 207 nm, which exhibits pulse energies up to 5 mJ with a bandwidth better than [Math Processing Error]. We describe how the approach shown in this paper can be extended to wavelengths shorter than 185 nm. The injection-seeded OPO provides high conversion efficiency ([Math Processing Error] overall energy conversion) and superior beam quality required for highly efficient downstream mixing where sum frequencies are generated in the UV. The frequency stability of the system is excellent, making it highly suitable for optical pumping. We demonstrate high resolution spectroscopy as well as optical pumping using laser-induced fluorescence and stimulated emission pumping, respectively, in supersonic pulsed molecular beams of nitric oxide

Generation of Tunable Narrow Bandwidth Nanosecond Pulses in the Deep Ultraviolet for Efficient Optical Pumping and High Resolution Spectroscopy

Nanosecond optical pulses with high power and spectral brightness in the deep ultraviolet (UV) region have been produced by sum frequency mixing of nearly transform-limited-bandwidth IR light originating from a home-built injection-seeded ring cavityoptical parametric oscillator(OPO) and the fourth harmonic beam of an injection-seeded Nd:YAG laser used simultaneously to pump the OPO with the second harmonic. We demonstrate UV output, tunable from 204 to 207 nm, which exhibits pulse energies up to 5 mJ with a bandwidth better than [Math Processing Error]. We describe how the approach shown in this paper can be extended to wavelengths shorter than 185 nm. The injection-seeded OPO provides high conversion efficiency ([Math Processing Error] overall energy conversion) and superior beam quality required for highly efficient downstream mixing where sum frequencies are generated in the UV. The frequency stability of the system is excellent, making it highly suitable for optical pumping. We demonstrate high resolution spectroscopy as well as optical pumping using laser-induced fluorescence and stimulated emission pumping, respectively, in supersonic pulsed molecular beams of nitric oxide

Presyncope Is Associated with Intensive Care Unit Admission in Emergency Department Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism

Introduction: Syncope is common among emergency department (ED) patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and indicates a higher acuity and worse prognosis than in patients without syncope. Whether presyncope carries the same prognostic implications has not been established. We compared incidence of intensive care unit (ICU) admission in three groups of ED PE patients: those with presyncope; syncope; and neither.Methods: This retrospective cohort study included all adults with acute, objectively confirmed PE in 21 community EDs from January 2013–April 2015. We combined electronic health record extraction with manual chart abstraction. We used chi-square test for univariate comparisons and performed multivariate analysis to evaluate associations between presyncope or syncope and ICU admission from the ED, reported as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).Results: Among 2996 PE patients, 82 (2.7%) had presyncope and 109 (3.6%) had syncope. ICU admission was similar between groups (presyncope 18.3% vs syncope 25.7%) and different than their non-syncope counterparts (either 22.5% vs neither 4.7%; p<0.0001). On multivariate analysis, both presyncope and syncope were independently associated with ICU admission, controlling for demographics, higher-risk PE Severity Index (PESI) class, ventilatory support, proximal clot location, and submassive and massive PE classification: presyncope, aOR 2.79 (95% CI, 1.40, 5.56); syncope, aOR 4.44 (95% CI 2.52, 7.80). These associations were only minimally affected when excluding massive PE from the model. There was no significant interaction between either syncope or presyncope and PESI, submassive or massive classification in predicting ICU admission.Conclusion: Presyncope appears to carry similar strength of association with ICU admission as syncope in ED patients with acute PE. If this is confirmed, clinicians evaluating patients with acute PE may benefit from including presyncope in their calculus of risk assessment and site-of-care decision-making

Mutations in the CDSN gene cause peeling skin disease and hypotrichosis simplex of the scalp

Peeling skin disease is a rare genodermatosis characterized by superficial exfoliation or peeling of the skin. Peeling skin disease is caused by biallelic mutations in CDSN as an autosomal recessive trait. Monoallelic mutations in CDSN have also been described in an autosomal dominant inherited genodermatosis: hypotrichosis simplex of the scalp. This disease is characterized by progressive hair loss of the scalp with onset after early childhood. Clinical data were obtained from a patient with lifelong generalized skin peeling and both his parents. The patient's parents did not suffer from skin peeling, but the mother had a history of thin scalp hair since early childhood. Mutation analysis in the patient showed compound heterozygous mutations in exon 2 of CDSN, a nonsense mutation c.598C>T (p.[Gln200*]), previously associated with hypotrichosis simplex of the scalp, and a frame-shift mutation c.164_167dup (p.[Thr57Profs*6]), previously described in peeling skin disease. The p.(Gln200*) mutation was also found in the mother of the proband. Our study strengthens the previously established link between mutations in CDSN to peeling skin disease and hypotrichosis simplex of the scalp

Inception of a global atlas of sea levels since the Last Glacial Maximum

Determining the rates, mechanisms, and geographic variability of relative sea-level (RSL) change following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides insight into the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change, the response of the solid Earth and gravity field to ice-mass redistribution, and constrains statistical and physical models used to project future sea-level rise. To do so in a scientifically robust way requires standardized datasets that enable broad spatial comparisons that minimize bias. As part of a larger goal to develop a unified, spatially-comprehensive post-LGM global RSL database, in this special issue we provide a standardized global synthesis of regional RSL data that resulted from the first ‘Geographic variability of HOLocene relative SEA level (HOLSEA)’ meetings in Mt Hood, Oregon (2016) and St Lucia, South Africa (2017). The HOLSEA meetings brought together sea-level researchers to agree upon a consistent protocol to standardize, interpret, and incorporate realistic uncertainties of RSL data. This special issue provides RSL data from ten geographical regions including new databases from Atlantic Europe and the Russian Arctic and revised/expanded databases from Atlantic Canada, the British Isles, the Netherlands, the western Mediterranean, the Adriatic, Israel, Peninsular Malaysia, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean. In total, the database derived from this special issue includes 5634 (5290 validated) index (n = 3202) and limiting points (n = 2088) that span from ∼20,000 years ago to present. Progress in improving the standardization of sea-level databases has also been accompanied by advancements in statistical and analytical methods used to infer spatial patterns and rates of RSL change from geological data that have a spatially and temporally sparse distribution and geochronological and elevational uncertainties. This special issue marks the inception of a unified, spatially-comprehensive post-LGM global RSL database

Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of National Academy of Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 108 (2011): 11017-11022, doi:10.1073/pnas.1015619108.We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 years based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. It then increased for 400 years at a rate of 0.6 mm/yr, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/yr, representing the steepest, century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semi-empirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.Research was supported by NSF grants (EAR-0951686) to BPH and JPD. ACK thanks a NOSAMS internship, UPenn paleontology stipend and grants from GSA and NAMS. North Carolina sea-level research was funded by NOAA (NA05NOS4781182), USGS (02ERAG0044) and NSF (EAR-0717364) grants to BPH with S. Culver and R. Corbett (East Carolina University). JPD (EAR-0309129) and MEM (ATM-0542356) acknowledge NSF support. MV acknowledges Academy of Finland Project 123113 and COST Action ES0701

Toward an Integrative Geological and Geophysical View of Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) is an exceptional geologic environment for recording evidence of land-level changes, tsunamis, and ground motion that reveals at least 19 great megathrust earthquakes over the past 10 kyr. Such earthquakes are among the most impactful natural hazards on Earth, transcend national boundaries, and can have global impact.Reducing the societal impacts of future events in the US Pacific Northwest and coastal British Columbia, Canada, requires improved scientific understanding of megathrust earthquake rupture, recurrence, and corresponding hazards. Despite substantial knowledge gained from decades of research, large uncertainties remain about the characteristics and frequencies of past CSZ earthquakes. In this review, we summarize geological, geophysical, and instrumental evidence relevant to understanding megathrust earthquakes along the CSZ and associated uncertainties. We discuss how the evidence constrains various models of great megathrust earthquake recurrence in Cascadia and identify potential paths forward for the earthquake science community