Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Contributions of Gene Marking to Cell and Gene Therapies

The first human genetic modification studies used replication-incompetent integrating vector vectors to introduce marker genes into T lymphocytes and subsequently into hematopoietic stem cells. Such studies have provided numerous insights into the biology of hematopoiesis and immune reconstitution and contributed to clinical development of gene and cell therapies. Tracking of hematopoietic reconstitution and analysis of the origin of residual malignant disease after hematopoietic transplantation has been possible via gene marking. Introduction of selectable marker genes has enabled preselection of specific T-cell populations for tumor and viral immunotherapy and reduced the threat of graft-versus-host disease, improving the survival of patients after allogeneic marrow transplantation. Marking studies in humans, murine xenografts, and large animals have helped optimize conditions for gene transfer into CD34+ hematopoietic progenitors, contributing to the achievement of gene transfer efficiencies sufficient for clinical benefit in several serious genetic diseases such as X-linked severe combined immunodeficiency and adrenoleukodystropy. When adverse events linked to insertional mutagenesis arose in clinical gene therapy trials for inherited immunodeficiencies, additional animal studies using gene-marking vectors have greatly increased our understanding of genotoxicity. The knowledge gained from these studies is being translated into new vector designs and clinical protocols, which we hope will continue to improve the efficiency, effectiveness and safety of these promising therapeutic approaches

Topografia do cone medular da preguiça

A anestesia caudal foi proposta pela primeira vez em 1926 e diversas técnicas foram desenvolvidas para anestesiar os nervos espinhais lombares e sacrais. Os métodos para anestesia epidural exigem conhecimento da anatomia da região envolvida. Desta forma, objetivou-se determinar a topografia do cone medular da preguiça (Bradipus variegatus), para fornecer recursos aos profissionais da área clínica para que, desta forma, seja possível a realização de anestesia epidural nesta espécie silvestre de nossa fauna. Foram dissecados quatro exemplares adultos de preguiça, dois machos e duas fêmeas que foram a óbito por causas naturais e obtidos junto ao Parque Zoobotânico do Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, Belém/Pará. Após a dissecação observou-se que o cone medular encontra-se entre as vértebras L3 e S1 com comprimento médio de 2,7cm, e a intumescência lombar apresentou comprimento médio de 1,0cm, estando localizada entre L1 e L3 nos quatro animais estudados. Desta forma, conclui-se que o melhor local para a realização de anestesia epidural na preguiça está entre as vértebras L1 e L

Armadilhas fotográficas na amostragem de mamíferos: considerações metodológias e comparação de equipamentos Use of camera traps in mammal sampling: methodological considerations and comparison of equipments

A utilização de armadilhas fotográficas em estudos desenvolvidos no Brasil é recente. O alto custo dos equipamentos e os constantes gastos com material de consumo podem, em alguns casos, limitar o número de unidades e o tempo de amostragem. O presente estudo objetivou discutir questões metodológicas visando otimizar a utilização do equipamento no inventário de mamíferos, além de comparar dois modelos de armadilhas fotográficas. O estudo foi desenvolvido na Estação Biológica de Santa Lúcia, no centro-norte do estado do Espírito Santo entre janeiro de 2002 e novembro de 2003, utilizando três Wildlife Pro Camera© (WPC) e quatro DeerCam©. Constatou-se a importância da realização de amostragens em diferentes fitofisionomias, tendo sido observadas variações na composição da comunidade registrada em cada ambiente. Foi detectada uma correlação significativa entre número de espécies registradas e esforço de amostragem empregado em cada trilha, ressaltando o registro de 60% ou mais dos táxons amostrados em trilhas com esforço > 250 armadilhas-dia. Houve predomínio de registros noturnos (67%), embora o número de espécies registradas durante a noite tenha sido semelhante ao obtido ao longo do dia. Quando as armadilhas foram colocadas em pares, apenas 27% das fotografias foram simultâneas. Os equipamentos utilizados apresentaram diferenças significativas na durabilidade e eficiência na amostragem de mamíferos, tanto dentro como entre as marcas testadas.<br>The use of camera traps is quite recent in Brazil. The high cost of equipments and constant expenses with supplies can, in some circumstances, limit the number of units to be deployed and sampling effort. The present study discusses methodological issues aiming at optimizing the use of these traps in mammalian inventories and also provides a comparison of two brands of equipments. The study was carried out in Santa Lúcia Biological Station (SLBS) in Center-north Espirito Santo state between January 2002 and November 2003, using three Wildlife Pro Camera© (WPC) units and four DeerCam© units. We realized the importance of sampling in different phitophysiognomies as they varied in mammal community. We detected a significant correlation between species richness and sampling effort in each trail, observing that 60% or more of species richness recorded in SLBS was obtained when sampling effort was > 250 camera-trap nights/trail. Nocturnal records predominated (67%) although the number of recorded species was similar between night and day. When camera traps were set in pairs, only 27% of records were simultaneous. The tested units showed significant differences in durability and efficiency, both within and between brands