The use of modelling in purchasing/supply management research

The purpose of this research to explore the use of modelling in the field of Purchasing and Supply Management (P/SM). We are particularly interested in identifying the specific areas of P/SM where there are opportunities for the use of modelling based methods. The paper starts with an overview of main types of modelling and also provides a categorisation of the main P/SM research themes. Our research shows that there are many opportunities for using descriptive, predictive and prescriptive modelling approaches in all areas of P/SM research from the ones with a focus on the actual function from a purely operational and execution perspective (e.g. purchasing processes and behaviour) to the ones with a focus on the organisational level from a more strategic perspective (e.g. strategy and policy). We conclude that future P/SM research needs to explore the value of modelling not just at the functional or operational level, but also at the organisation and strategic level respectively. We also acknowledge that while using empirical results to inform and improve models has advantages, there are also drawbacks, which relate to the value, the practical relevance and the generalisability of the modelling based approaches

Patterns of unplanned hospital admissions among people with dementia: from diagnosis to the end of life

BACKGROUND: hospitalisations are sentinel events for people with dementia. How patterns of unplanned hospital admissions change among people with dementia after diagnosis is relatively unknown. OBJECTIVE: to describe patterns of unplanned hospital admissions of people with dementia from diagnosis until death/study end. METHODS: retrospective cohort study using mental healthcare provider data of people diagnosed with dementia in London, UK (1995-2017), linked to mortality and hospital data. The primary outcome was the rate of unplanned hospital admissions after diagnosis until death/study end. We calculated the cumulative incidence of unplanned hospital admissions. The rates of unplanned hospital admissions and the percentage of time spent as an inpatient were stratified by time from first dementia diagnosis. RESULTS: for 19,221 people with dementia (61.4% female, mean age at diagnosis 81.0 years (standard deviation, SD 8.5)), the cumulative incidence of unplanned hospital admissions (n = 14,759) was 76.8% (95% CI 76.3%-77.3%). Individuals remained in the study for mean 3.0 (SD 2.6) years, and 12,667 (65.9%) died. Rates and lengths of unplanned hospital admissions remained relatively low and short in the months after the dementia diagnosis, increasing only as people approached the end of life. Percentage of time spent as an inpatient was <3% for people who were alive at the study end but was on average 19.6 and 13.3% for the decedents in the last 6 and 12 months of life, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: the steep rise in hospitalisations before death highlights the need for improved community care and services for people with dementia who are approaching the end of life

Protocolo de observaciones en las estaciones meteorológicas : Contrato interadministrativo No 143 – 2018 IDEAM – Universidad Nacional de Colombia

ilustracionesLa información real sobre la atmósfera, el tiempo y el clima se determina a través de las obser- vaciones meteorológicas: son mediciones instrumentales y evaluaciones visuales cuantitativas de los procesos y fenómenos atmosféricos. Las observaciones del estado de la atmósfera en la capa superficial permiten establecer el clima de una zona, los regímenes térmicos, de lluvias, de vientos y de humedad, además de contribuir al diagnóstico y al estado de evolución del tiempo atmosférico. (texto tomado de la fuente)1. OBSERVACIONES METEOROLÓGICAS -- 2. ESTACIÓN METEOROLÓGICA -- 3. INSTRUMENTOS METEOROLÓGICOS -- 4. PROGRAMA DE OBSERVACIONES METEOROLÓGICAS SUPERFICIALES -- 4.1 Medición de la temperatura y la humedad -- 4.1.1 Temperatura mínima -- 4.1.2 Temperatura máxima -- 4.1.3 Temperatura del aire seco -- 4.1.4 Temperatura del bulbo húmedo -- 4.1.5 Termohigrógrafo -- 4.2 Nubosidad -- 4.3 Fenómenos atmosféricos -- 4.4 Precipitación -- 4.4.1 Pluviómetros -- 4.4.2 Pluviógrafos -- 4.5 Tanque de evaporación -- 4.6 Viento -- 4.6.1 Anemógrafo -- 4.6.2 Veleta y Anemómetro -- 4.7 Brillo solar -- 4.7.1 HeliógrafoPrimera edició

Survival and critical care use among people with dementia in a large English cohort

BACKGROUND: Admitting people with dementia to critical care units may not always lead to a clear survival benefit. Critical care admissions of people with dementia vary across countries. Little is known about the use and trends of critical care admissions of people with dementia in England. OBJECTIVE: To investigate critical care use and survival among people with dementia in a large London catchment area. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using data from dementia assessment services in south London, UK (2007-20) linked with national hospitalisation data to ascertain critical care admissions. Outcomes included age-sex-standardised critical care use and 1-year post-critical care admission survival by dementia severity (binary: mild versus moderate/severe). We used logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier survival plots for investigating 1-year survival following a critical care admission and linear regressions for time trends. RESULTS: Of 19,787 people diagnosed with dementia, 726 (3.7%) had ≥1 critical care admission at any time after receiving their dementia diagnosis. The overall 1-year survival of people with dementia, who had a CCA, was 47.5% (n = 345). Dementia severity was not associated with 1-year survival following a critical care admission (mild dementia versus moderate-severe dementia odds of 1-year mortality OR: 0.90, 95% CI [0.66-1.22]). Over the 12-year period from 2008 to 2019, overall critical care use decreased (β = -0.05; 95% CI = -0.01, -0.0003; P = 0.03), while critical care admissions occurring during the last year of life increased (β = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.01, 0.20, P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, while critical care use among people with dementia declined overall, its use increased among those in their last year of life. Survival remains comparable to that observed in general older populations

Optimizing fire station locations for the Istanbul metropolitan municipality

Copyright @ 2013 INFORMSThe Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) seeks to determine locations for additional fire stations to build in Istanbul; its objective is to make residences and historic sites reachable by emergency vehicles within five minutes of a fire station’s receipt of a service request. In this paper, we discuss our development of a mathematical model to aid IMM in determining these locations by using data retrieved from its fire incident records. We use a geographic information system to implement the model on Istanbul’s road network, and solve two location models—set-covering and maximal-covering—as what-if scenarios. We discuss 10 scenarios, including the situation that existed when we initiated the project and the scenario that IMM implemented. The scenario implemented increases the city’s fire station coverage from 58.6 percent to 85.9 percent, based on a five-minute response time, with an implementation plan that spans three years

Fenotypowe podgrupy zespołu policystycznych jajników mają różne objawy wewnątrznerkowej oporności

Objective: The polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is known to be related with increased metabolic and cardiovascular risks. Various phenotypic subgroups of PCOS have been proven to have metabolic and endocrine disorders with varying degrees of severity. However, intra-renal vascular resistance, which is an indirect indication ofatherosclerosis, remains unknown in PCOS subgroups. In this study we examined whether PCOS subgroups have different intra-renal resistance symptoms. Material and Methods: 98 PCOS patients (diagnosed according to the Rotterdam criteria) 30 controls were ncluded in the study. The diagnosis of PCOS was established in the presence of at least two of the following criteria: 1- oligo and/or amenorrhea (OM); 2- clinic and/or biochemical signs of hyperandrogenism (HA); 3- polycystic ovarian morphology (PCO) detected by transvaginal ultrasonography. 37 patients (Group 1) met all three criteria (HA+OM+PCO), 29 patients (Group 2) met two of the criteria including hyperandrogenism (HA+OM or HA+PCO) and the remaining 32 patients (Group 3) had no hyperandrogenism but fulfilled the other two criteria; PCO+OM. Renal Doppler ultrasonography and hormonal/ biochemical analyses were carried out. The first outcome measure was designated as the differences in the renal resistive index (RRI) values of the groups, and the second outcome measure was designated as the relation of RRI with the insulin resistance and lipid profile. Results: In Group 1, the RRI and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) values were significantly higher than in Group 3 and controls (P < 0.031, P < 0.001, respectively, after adjusting for age and BMI). The RRI and HOMA-IR values in Group 3 were similar to those of the control group. It was determined that RRI has a positive correlation with HOMA-IR (r=0.784, PCel pracy: Zespół policystycznych jajników jest związany ze zwiększonym ryzykiem metabolicznym i sercowonaczyniowym. Fenotypowe podgrupy w obrębie zespołu PCO charakteryzują się zaburzeniami metabolicznymi i endokrynnymi o rożnym stopniu nasilenia. Jednak wewnątrznerkowa oporność naczyniowa, która jest pośrednim wykładnikiem miażdżycy, pozostaje nieznana w podgrupach zespołu PCO. W badaniu ocenialiśmy czy podgrupy zespołu PCO mają rożne objawy wewnątrznerkowej oporności. Materiał i metoda: do badania włączono 98 pacjentek z zespołem PCO (zdiagnozowanym według kryterium z Rotterdamu) oraz 30 pacjentek kontrolnych. Rozpoznanie zespołu PCO postawiono na podstawie obecności przynajmniej dwóch z poniżej wymienionych kryteriów: 1-oligo i/lub amenorrhea (OM); 2-kliniczne lub biochemiczne objawy hiperandrogenizmu (HA); 3-policystyczny obraz jajnikow (PCO) w przez pochwowym badaniu ultrasonograficznym. Grupę 1 stanowiło 37 pacjentek, które spełniły wszystkie kryteria diagnostyczne (HA+OM+PCO), grupa 2 to 29 pacjentek z dwoma kryteriami, w tym kryterium hiperandrogenizmu (HA+OM lub HA+PCO), pozostałe 32 pacjentki to grupa 3 – bez hiperandrogenizmu ale z dwoma pozostałymi kryteriami; PCO+OM. Przeprowadzono badanie dopplerowskie nerek i hormonalno-biochemiczną ocenę. Jako pierwszą zmierzono różnicę pomiędzy grupami w indeksie oporu nerkowego (RRI), następnie oceniono związek pomiędzy RRI a insulinoopornością i profilem lipidowym. Wyniki: W grupie 1, RRI i wskaźnik oceny insulinooporności (HOMA-IR) były istotnie wyższe niż w grupie 3 oraz kontrolnej (

Three level spinal dysraphism: Multiple composite Type 1 and Type 2 split cord malformat?on

It has reported an uncommon case a 3 year-old girl a composite split cord malformation (SCM) with two different levels of SCM type1 and one level SCM type2, tight filum and sacral dermal sinus. The patient was admitted with a hypertrichosis and hyperpigmented patch. MRI of whole spine and brain was done. SCM type1 at T 7 and L2 levels and SCM typ2 at T11 level were removed then tight filum was cut and dermal sinus was excised at different sites during the same surgery

Primary HIV-1 Infection Among Infants in sub-Saharan Africa: HPTN 024.

Our objectives were to assess clinical signs and diagnoses associated with primary HIV-1 infection among infants. We analyzed data from a clinical trial (HIV Prevention Trials Network Protocol 024) in sub-Saharan Africa. Study visits were conducted at birth, at 4-6 weeks, and at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. The study population comprised live born, singleton, first-born infants of HIV-1-infected women with negative HIV-1 RNA assays who were still breastfeeding at 4-6 weeks. Of 1317 HIV-1-exposed infants, 84 became HIV-1 infected after 4-6 weeks and 1233 remained uninfected. There were 102 primary and 5650 nonprimary infection visits. The most common signs were cough and diarrhea, and the most common diagnoses were malaria and pneumonia. Primary infection was associated with significantly increased odds of diarrhea [odds ratio (OR) = 2.4], pneumonia (OR = 3.5), otitis media (OR = 3.1), and oral thrush (OR = 2.9). For the clinical signs and diagnoses evaluated, sensitivity was low (1%-16.7%) and specificity was high (88.2%-99%). Positive predictive values ranged from 0.1%-1.4%. Negative predictive values ranged from 28.0%-51.1%. Certain clinical signs and diagnoses, although more common during primary HIV-1 infection, had low sensitivity and high specificity. Efforts to expand access to laboratory assays for the diagnosis of primary HIV-1 infection among infants of HIV-1-infected women should be emphasized

Case Report Inguinal Hernia Containing Uterus, Fallopian Tube, and Ovary in a Premature Newborn

A female infant weighing 2,200 g was delivered at 34 weeks of gestation by vaginal delivery. She presented with an irreducible mass in the left inguinal region at 32 days of age. An ultrasonography (US) was performed and an incarcerated hernia containing uterus, fallopian tube, and ovary was diagnosed preoperatively. Surgery was performed through an inguinal approach; the uterus, fallopian tube, and ovary were found in the hernia sac. High ligation and an additional repair of the internal inguinal ring were performed. Patent processus vaginalis was found during contralateral exploration and also closed. The postoperative course was uneventful. After one year of follow-up, there have been no signs of recurrence