Model Fusion to Enhance the Clinical Acceptability of Long-Term Glucose Predictions

This paper presents the Derivatives Combination Predictor (DCP), a novel model fusion algorithm for making long-term glucose predictions for diabetic people. First, using the history of glucose predictions made by several models, the future glucose variation at a given horizon is predicted. Then, by accumulating the past predicted variations starting from a known glucose value, the fused glucose prediction is computed. A new loss function is introduced to make the DCP model learn to react faster to changes in glucose variations. The algorithm has been tested on 10 \textit{in-silico} type-1 diabetic children from the T1DMS software. Three initial predictors have been used: a Gaussian process regressor, a feed-forward neural network and an extreme learning machine model. The DCP and two other fusion algorithms have been evaluated at a prediction horizon of 120 minutes with the root-mean-squared error of the prediction, the root-mean-squared error of the predicted variation, and the continuous glucose-error grid analysis. By making a successful trade-off between prediction accuracy and predicted-variation accuracy, the DCP, alongside with its specifically designed loss function, improves the clinical acceptability of the predictions, and therefore the safety of the model for diabetic people

Study of Short-Term Personalized Glucose Predictive Models on Type-1 Diabetic Children

Research in diabetes, especially when it comes to building data-driven models to forecast future glucose values, is hindered by the sensitive nature of the data. Because researchers do not share the same data between studies, progress is hard to assess. This paper aims at comparing the most promising algorithms in the field, namely Feedforward Neural Networks (FFNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Networks, Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Gaussian Processes (GP). They are personalized and trained on a population of 10 virtual children from the Type 1 Diabetes Metabolic Simulator software to predict future glucose values at a prediction horizon of 30 minutes. The performances of the models are evaluated using the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and the Continuous Glucose-Error Grid Analysis (CG-EGA). While most of the models end up having low RMSE, the GP model with a Dot-Product kernel (GP-DP), a novel usage in the context of glucose prediction, has the lowest. Despite having good RMSE values, we show that the models do not necessarily exhibit a good clinical acceptability, measured by the CG-EGA. Only the LSTM, SVR and GP-DP models have overall acceptable results, each of them performing best in one of the glycemia regions

Leveraging the Potential of Digital Technology for Personalised Medicine

editorial reviewedDigital device technologies, such as wearable gait sensors, voice and video recordings, bear potential for monitoring symptoms of chronic and increasingly prevalent diseases, such as Parkinson's Disease. This could facilitate a more personalised and higher quality treatment in the future. As part of the EU-wide project DIGIPD, we confirmed this potential using data from three different cohort studies in Luxembourg, France and Germany. Data processing using artificial intelligence allows inferring disease symptoms and their progression. We found that digital devices, which collect large amounts of data during use, are highly accepted by patients. There are, however, challenges to legally collect patient-level data and process them using artificial intelligence for research and medical development in the European Union. This report discusses this topic from the perspectives of physicians, data scientists, patients, and lawyers.Validating DIGItal biomarkers for better personalized treatment of Parkinson’s Diseas

Two‐layer discriminative model for human activity recognition

Most of recent methods for action/activity recognition, usually based on static classifiers, have achieved improvements by integrating context of local interest point (IP) features such as spatiotemporal IPs by characterising their neighbourhood under different scales. In this study, the authors propose a new approach that explicitly models the sequential aspect of activities. First, a sliding window segmentation technique splits the video stream into overlapping short segments. Each window is characterised by a local bag of words of IPs encoded by motion information. A first‐layer support vector machine provides for each window a vector of conditional class probabilities that summarises all discriminant information that is relevant for sequence recognition. The sequence of these stochastic vectors is then fed to a hidden conditional random field for inference at the sequence level. They also show how their approach can be naturally extended to the problem of conjoint segmentation and recognition of a sequence of action classes within a continuous video stream. They have tested their model on various human action and activity datasets and the obtained results compare favourably with current state of the art