Performance of internal Covariance Estimators for Cosmic Shear Correlation Functions

Data re-sampling methods such as the delete-one jackknife are a common tool for estimating the covariance of large scale structure probes. In this paper we investigate the concepts of internal covariance estimation in the context of cosmic shear two-point statistics. We demonstrate how to use log-normal simulations of the convergence field and the corresponding shear field to carry out realistic tests of internal covariance estimators and find that most estimators such as jackknife or sub-sample covariance can reach a satisfactory compromise between bias and variance of the estimated covariance. In a forecast for the complete, 5-year DES survey we show that internally estimated covariance matrices can provide a large fraction of the true uncertainties on cosmological parameters in a 2D cosmic shear analysis. The volume inside contours of constant likelihood in the $\Omega_m$-$\sigma_8$ plane as measured with internally estimated covariance matrices is on average $\gtrsim 85\%$ of the volume derived from the true covariance matrix. The uncertainty on the parameter combination $\Sigma_8 \sim \sigma_8 \Omega_m^{0.5}$ derived from internally estimated covariances is $\sim 90\%$ of the true uncertainty.Comment: submitted to mnra

How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 10^3 Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1), consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z = 0.8 for WFIRST, z = 0.25 for LSST, and z = 0.04 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs

Detection of Cross-Correlation between Gravitational Lensing and γ Rays

In recent years, many γ-ray sources have been identified, yet the unresolved component hosts valuable information on the faintest emission. In order to extract it, a cross-correlation with gravitational tracers of matter in the Universe has been shown to be a promising tool. We report here the first identification of a cross-correlation signal between γ rays and the distribution of mass in the Universe probed by weak gravitational lensing. We use data from the Dark Energy Survey Y1 weak lensing data and the Fermi Large Area Telescope 9-yr γ-ray data, obtaining a signal-to-noise ratio of 5.3. The signal is mostly localized at small angular scales and high γ-ray energies, with a hint of correlation at extended separation. Blazar emission is likely the origin of the small-scale effect. We investigate implications of the large-scale component in terms of astrophysical sources and particle dark matter emission

How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 10^3 Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1), consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z = 0.8 for WFIRST, z = 0.25 for LSST, and z = 0.04 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs

Reproductive trade-offs in the colorado checkered whiptail lizard (Aspidoscelis neotesselatus): an examination of the relationship between clutch and follicle size

Life history theory predicts that there should be an inverse relationship between offspring size and number, because individuals cannot simultaneously maximize both when resources are limited. Although extensively studied in avian species, the occurrence and determinants of reproductive tradeoffs in oviparous reptiles are far less understood, particularly in parthenogenetic species. We studied this trade-off in the Colorado Checkered Whiptail, Aspidoscelis neotesselatus, a female-only parthenogenetic lizard. Using data previously collected in 2018 and 2019, we tested for clutch and egg size trade-offs and determined whether this relationship could be influenced by female size and aspects of physiological condition. Physiological condition included energy-mobilizing hormone (i.e. corticosterone ‘CORT’), oxidative stress (i.e. reactive oxygen metabolites ‘ROMs’), and innate immune function (bacterial killing ability ‘BKA’). We found the effect of clutch size on follicle size was significant, but not linear. Specifically, follicle size was on average larger in females with clutches of two follicles when compared to clutches of one follicle, but smaller in females with clutches of three when compared to clutches of two. In addition, females that were larger produced larger follicles regardless of clutch size. Neither CORT nor BKA affected the relationship between follicle size and clutch size. However, ROMs did explain variability in this relationship: oxidative stress was more elevated in females that produced larger clutches and larger follicles. We conclude that clutch size and body size are key life history traits that shape follicle size, and that investments into larger clutches and follicle size come at the cost of oxidative damage

Change in health literacy over a decade in a prospective cohort of community-dwelling older adults

BACKGROUND: Health literacy is often viewed as a static trait in longitudinal studies, which may over or underestimate an individual’s ability to manage one’s health. OBJECTIVES: We sought to examine health literacy over time among older adults using three widely used measures. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling adults ages 55 to 74 at baseline with at least one follow-up visit (N = 656) recruited from one academic internal medicine clinic and six community health centers in Chicago, IL. MEASURES: Health literacy was measured using the Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults (TOFHLA), Newest Vital Sign (NVS), and Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine (REALM) at baseline and up to three follow-up time points. RESULTS: In unadjusted analyses, significant changes since baseline were found beginning at the second follow-up (mean (M) = 6.0 years, SD = 0.6) for the TOFHLA (M = − 0.9, SD = 0.95, p = 0.049) and the REALM (M = 0.3, SD = 2.5, p = 0.004) and at the last follow-up (M = 8.6 years, SD = 0.5) for the NVS (M = − 0.2, SD = 1.4, p = 0.02). There were non-linear effects of baseline age on TOFHLA and NVS scores over time (piecewise cubic spline p = 0.01 and p < 0.001, respectively) and no effect on REALM scores (B = 0.02, 95% CI − 0.01 to 0.04, p = 0.17) using multivariable mixed-effects linear regression models, controlling for race, education, income, and comorbidity. CONCLUSION: We found a negative relationship between age and health literacy over time as measured by the TOFHLA and NVS. Health literacy barriers appear to be more prevalent among individuals in later life, when self-care demands are similarly increasing. Clinicians might consider strategies to assess and respond to limited health literacy, particularly among patients 70 and older. REALM performance remained stable over 10 years of follow-up. This questions whether health literacy tools measure the same attribute. Prospective health literacy studies should carefully consider what measures to use, depending on their objective

Chemical Abundance Analysis of Tucana III, the Second rr-process Enhanced Ultra-Faint Dwarf Galaxy

We present a chemical abundance analysis of four additional confirmed member stars of Tucana III, a Milky Way satellite galaxy candidate in the process of being tidally disrupted as it is accreted by the Galaxy. Two of these stars are centrally located in the core of the galaxy while the other two stars are located in the eastern and western tidal tails. The four stars have chemical abundance patterns consistent with the one previously studied star in Tucana III: they are moderately enhanced in $r$-process elements, i.e. they have $\approx +$0.4 dex. The non-neutron-capture elements generally follow trends seen in other dwarf galaxies, including a metallicity range of 0.44 dex and the expected trend in $\alpha$-elements, i.e., the lower metallicity stars have higher Ca and Ti abundance. Overall, the chemical abundance patterns of these stars suggest that Tucana III was an ultra-faint dwarf galaxy, and not a globular cluster, before being tidally disturbed. As is the case for the one other galaxy dominated by $r$-process enhanced stars, Reticulum II, Tucana III's stellar chemical abundances are consistent with pollution from ejecta produced by a binary neutron star merger, although a different $r$-process element or dilution gas mass is required to explain the abundances in these two galaxies if a neutron star merger is the sole source of $r$-process enhancement.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures; accepted by Ap