Evaluation of the Variance in the Premium Provision Estimate : Handling Inhomogeneous and Decreasing Risk in Premium Provision Purposes

The costs related to events of losses within non-life insurance are stochastic and a prerequisite of running a successful insurance business is to predict risks and future costs. From both a business- and regulatory perspective, it is of high interest to have a genuine understanding of the precision and the sensitivity of the estimated costs and future risks. This thesis aims to provide an alternative procedure of how to estimate the costs related to the future and, above all, the variance, in the case of dealing with inhomogeneous and decreasing risk. The procedure is based on a separate modeling of the claim frequency and the claim severity, that later can be combined to yield a total cost distribution for a determined time period. The claim severities are modeled based on a parametric and a non-parametric approach and the claim frequencies are modeled with the resampling method bootstrap and by the use of scenarios. The thesis is made in collaboration with the insurance company, Anticimex Insurance, who has contributed with the data as well as expert knowledge related to the actuarial field. The results of the thesis show that the procedure is successful for evaluating estimated total costs distributions and their first and second moments, even in the case of inhomogeneous and decreasing risk.Kostnader som uppkommer på grund av skador inom skadeförsäkring är stokasiska och en förusättning för att kunna bedriva ett framgångsrikt försäkringsbolag är att kunna prediktera risk och framtida kostnader. Utifrån ett såväl försäkrings- som reglatoriskt perspektiv är det av stor vikt att ha en gedigen förståelse av både precisionen och känsligheten i de skattade estimaten. Denna uppsats syftar till att ta fram ett alternativt tillvägagångssätt till hur kostnader relaterade till framtiden ska predikteras, med fokus på att utvärdera variationen i estimaten, vid fallet av en inhomogen och avtagande risk. Tillvägagångssättet bygger på en uppdelning mellan antalet skador och kostnaden för skador, vilka modelleras separat för att sedan kombineras och ge en totalkostnadsfördelning för den avsedda tidsperioden. De historiska kostnaderna modelleras utifrån ett parametriskt- och ett ickeparametriskt tillvägagångssätt. Skadefrekvensen modelleras med hjälp av bland annat samplingsmetoden bootstrap samt genom användandet av scenarier. Uppsatsen görs i samarbete med skadeförsäkringsbolaget, Anticimex Försäkringar, vilka har bidragit med data och expertkunskap inom det aktuariella området. Arbetets resultat visar att det föreslagna tillvägagångssättet är en framgångsrik strategi för att utvärdera de första två momenten av de predikterade totalkostnadsfördelningarna, även vid fallet av en inhomogen och avtagande risk.

Localization of foreign direct investment : A case study of Swedish companies' decisions

The purpose of this essay is to find how Location specific factors affect the FDI of MNEs.This is done through the use of Dunning's eclectic paradigm, mainly the L-factor of OLI. TheL-factor is then combined with market agglomeration and unexploited markets as aframework to find location as a motivator for companies´ FDI. We also use Dunning’s fourmotivations for FDI when trying to find how Location affected FDI.Three companies are interviewed in semi-structured interviews to ensure their views on thesubject can transpire but still keep them within the subject at hand. We found that all thecompanies we interviewed mainly looked for agglomerated markets, access to markets,customers and access to competent people within the markets when deciding which market tosettle in. We also found that unexploited markets were not something the companies weinterviewed were searching for nor valued highly in their investment decision. This has to dowith the fact that we only interviewed three companies and did not interview in a wideenough range of industries to be able to conclude our findings.

Localization of foreign direct investment : A case study of Swedish companies' decisions

The purpose of this essay is to find how Location specific factors affect the FDI of MNEs.This is done through the use of Dunning's eclectic paradigm, mainly the L-factor of OLI. TheL-factor is then combined with market agglomeration and unexploited markets as aframework to find location as a motivator for companies´ FDI. We also use Dunning’s fourmotivations for FDI when trying to find how Location affected FDI.Three companies are interviewed in semi-structured interviews to ensure their views on thesubject can transpire but still keep them within the subject at hand. We found that all thecompanies we interviewed mainly looked for agglomerated markets, access to markets,customers and access to competent people within the markets when deciding which market tosettle in. We also found that unexploited markets were not something the companies weinterviewed were searching for nor valued highly in their investment decision. This has to dowith the fact that we only interviewed three companies and did not interview in a wideenough range of industries to be able to conclude our findings.