Game-theoretic analysis of China's WTO accession

This paper studies the determination of split of total surplus among the negotiating parties (member countries and the acceding country) in a WTO accession negotiation using a sequential bargaining model. In particular, we are interested in the effect of the most-favored-nation (MFN) principle on the negotiation outcome. The MFN principle says that any tariff reduction offered by the applicant for accession has to be automatically granted to all existing members. The model suggests that it is quite plausible that China's share of surplus is more when MFN is in place.preprin

Resilient Optimistic Termination Detection for the Async-Finish Model

International audienceDriven by increasing core count and decreasing mean-time-to-failure in supercomputers, HPC runtime systems must improve support for dynamic task-parallel execution and resilience to failures. The async-finish task model, adapted for distributed systems as the asynchronous partitioned global address space programming model, provides a simple way to decompose a computation into nested task groups, each managed by a ‘finish’ that signals the termination of all tasks within the group.For distributed termination detection, maintaining a consistent view of task state across multiple unreliable processes requires additional book-keeping when creating or completing tasks and finish-scopes. Runtime systems which perform this book-keeping pessimistically, i.e. synchronously with task state changes, add a high communication overhead compared to non-resilient protocols. In this paper, we propose optimistic finish, the first message-optimal resilient termination detection protocol for the async-finish model. By avoiding the communication of certain task and finish events, this protocol allows uncertainty about the global structure of the computation which can be resolved correctly at failure time, thereby reducing the overhead for failure-free execution.Performance results using micro-benchmarks and the LULESH hydrodynamics proxy application show significant reductions in resilience overhead with optimistic finish compared to pessimistic finish. Our optimistic finish protocol is applicable to any task-based runtime system offering automatic termination detection for dynamic graphs of non-migratable tasks

Prescription sequence symmetry analysis: assessing risk, temporality, and consistency for adverse drug reactions across datasets in five countries

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Predictive validity of the CriSTAL tool for short-term mortality in older people presenting at Emergency Departments: a prospective study

© 2018, The Author(s). Abstract: To determine the validity of the Australian clinical prediction tool Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care (CRISTAL) based on objective clinical criteria to accurately identify risk of death within 3 months of admission among older patients. Methods: Prospective study of ≥ 65 year-olds presenting at emergency departments in five Australian (Aus) and four Danish (DK) hospitals. Logistic regression analysis was used to model factors for death prediction; Sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve and calibration with bootstrapping techniques were used to describe predictive accuracy. Results: 2493 patients, with median age 78–80 years (DK–Aus). The deceased had significantly higher mean CriSTAL with Australian mean of 8.1 (95% CI 7.7–8.6 vs. 5.8 95% CI 5.6–5.9) and Danish mean 7.1 (95% CI 6.6–7.5 vs. 5.5 95% CI 5.4–5.6). The model with Fried Frailty score was optimal for the Australian cohort but prediction with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was also good (AUROC 0.825 and 0.81, respectively). Values for the Danish cohort were AUROC 0.764 with Fried and 0.794 using CFS. The most significant independent predictors of short-term death in both cohorts were advanced malignancy, frailty, male gender and advanced age. CriSTAL’s accuracy was only modest for in-hospital death prediction in either setting. Conclusions: The modified CriSTAL tool (with CFS instead of Fried’s frailty instrument) has good discriminant power to improve prognostic certainty of short-term mortality for ED physicians in both health systems. This shows promise in enhancing clinician’s confidence in initiating earlier end-of-life discussions

Twenty-year trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors among people with type 2 diabetes by dementia status in England: a retrospective cohort study.

To assess 20-year retrospective trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors preceding dementia diagnosis among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We identified 227,145 people with T2D aged > 42 years between 1999 and 2018. Annual mean levels of eight routinely measured cardio-metabolic factors were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Multivariable multilevel piecewise and non-piecewise growth curve models assessed retrospective trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors by dementia status from up to 19 years preceding dementia diagnosis (dementia) or last contact with healthcare (no dementia). 23,546 patients developed dementia; mean (SD) follow-up was 10.0 (5.8) years. In the dementia group, mean systolic blood pressure increased 16-19 years before dementia diagnosis compared with patients without dementia, but declined more steeply from 16 years before diagnosis, while diastolic blood pressure generally declined at similar rates. Mean body mass index followed a steeper non-linear decline from 11 years before diagnosis in the dementia group. Mean blood lipid levels (total cholesterol, LDL, HDL) and glycaemic measures (fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c) were generally higher in the dementia group compared with those without dementia and followed similar patterns of change. However, absolute group differences were small. Differences in levels of cardio-metabolic factors were observed up to two decades prior to dementia diagnosis. Our findings suggest that a long follow-up is crucial to minimise reverse causation arising from changes in cardio-metabolic factors during preclinical dementia. Future investigations which address associations between cardiometabolic factors and dementia should account for potential non-linear relationships and consider the timeframe when measurements are taken

Association between BNT162b2 or CoronaVac COVID-19 vaccines and major adverse cardiovascular events among individuals with cardiovascular disease

AIMS: Concern about the cardiovascular safety of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines among individuals with cardiovascular disease (CVD) may lead to vaccine hesitancy. We sought to assess the association between two COVID-19 vaccines, BNT162b2 and CoronaVac, and the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in individuals with established CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified individuals with a history of CVD before 23 February 2021 and a diagnosis of MACE between 23 February 2021 and 31 January 2022 in Hong Kong. MACE was defined as a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization, and cardiovascular death. Electronic health records from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority were linked to vaccination records from the Department of Health. A self-controlled case-series method was used to evaluate the risk of MACE for 0-13 and 14-27 days after two doses of COVID-19 vaccine. We estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) to compare the risk of MACE between each risk period and the baseline period. A total of 229 235 individuals with CVD were identified, of which 1764 were vaccinated and had a diagnosis of MACE during the observation period (BNT162b2 = 662; CoronaVac = 1102). For BNT162b2, IRRs were 0.48 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.23-1.02] for the first dose and 0.87 (95% CI 0.50-1.52) for the second dose during the 0-13 days risk period, 0.40 (95% CI 0.18-0.93) for the first dose and 1.13 (95% CI 0.70-1.84) for the second dose during the 14-27 days risk period. For CoronaVac, the IRRs were 0.43 (95% CI 0.24-0.75) for the first dose and, 0.73 (95% CI 0.46-1.16) for the second dose during the 0-13 days risk period, 0.54 (95% CI 0.33-0.90) for the first dose and 0.83 (95% CI 0.54-1.29) for the second dose during the 14-27 days risk period. Consistent results were found in subgroup analyses for different sexes, age groups and different underlying cardiovascular conditions. CONCLUSION: Our findings showed no evidence of an increased risk of MACE after vaccination with BNT162b2 or CoronaVac in patients with CVD. Future research is required to monitor the risk after the third dose of each vaccine

Poloxomer 188 Has a Deleterious Effect on Dystrophic Skeletal Muscle Function

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is an X-linked, fatal muscle wasting disease for which there is currently no cure and limited palliative treatments. Poloxomer 188 (P188) is a tri-block copolymer that has been proposed as a potential treatment for cardiomyopathy in DMD patients. Despite the reported beneficial effects of P188 on dystrophic cardiac muscle function, the effects of P188 on dystrophic skeletal muscle function are relatively unknown. Mdx mice were injected intraperitoneally with 460 mg/kg or 30 mg/kg P188 dissolved in saline, or saline alone (control). The effect of single-dose and 2-week daily treatment was assessed using a muscle function test on the Tibialis Anterior (TA) muscle in situ in anaesthetised mice. The test comprises a warm up, measurement of the force-frequency relationship and a series of eccentric contractions with a 10% stretch that have previously been shown to cause a drop in maximum force in mdx mice. After 2 weeks of P188 treatment at either 30 or 460 mg/kg/day the drop in maximum force produced following eccentric contractions was significantly greater than that seen in saline treated control mice (P = 0.0001). Two week P188 treatment at either dose did not significantly change the force-frequency relationship or maximum isometric specific force produced by the TA muscle. In conclusion P188 treatment increases susceptibility to contraction-induced injury following eccentric contractions in dystrophic skeletal muscle and hence its suitability as a potential therapeutic for DMD should be reconsidered

Semiparametric Multivariate Accelerated Failure Time Model with Generalized Estimating Equations

The semiparametric accelerated failure time model is not as widely used as the Cox relative risk model mainly due to computational difficulties. Recent developments in least squares estimation and induced smoothing estimating equations provide promising tools to make the accelerate failure time models more attractive in practice. For semiparametric multivariate accelerated failure time models, we propose a generalized estimating equation approach to account for the multivariate dependence through working correlation structures. The marginal error distributions can be either identical as in sequential event settings or different as in parallel event settings. Some regression coefficients can be shared across margins as needed. The initial estimator is a rank-based estimator with Gehan's weight, but obtained from an induced smoothing approach with computation ease. The resulting estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, with a variance estimated through a multiplier resampling method. In a simulation study, our estimator was up to three times as efficient as the initial estimator, especially with stronger multivariate dependence and heavier censoring percentage. Two real examples demonstrate the utility of the proposed method

Methylphenidate and the risk of psychotic disorders and hallucinations in children and adolescents in a large health system

Previous studies have suggested that risk of psychotic events may be increased in children exposed to methylphenidate (MPH). However, this risk has not been fully examined and the possibility of confounding factors has not been excluded. Patients aged 6-19 years who received at least one MPH prescription were identified using Hong Kong population-based electronic medical records on the Clinical Data Analysis & Reporting System (2001-2014). Using the self-controlled case series design, relative incidence of psychotic events was calculated comparing periods when patients were exposed to MPH with non-exposed periods. Of 20 586 patients prescribed MPH, 103 had an incident psychotic event; 72 (69.9%) were male and 31 (30.1%) female. The mean age at commencement of observation was 6.95 years and the mean follow-up per participant was 10.16 years. On average, each participant was exposed to MPH for 2.17 years. The overall incidence of psychotic events during the MPH exposure period was 6.14 per 10 000 patient-years. No increased risk was found during MPH exposed compared to non-exposed periods (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.02 (0.53-1.97)). However, an increased risk was found during the pre-exposure period (IRR 4.64 (2.17-9.92)). Results were consistent across all sensitivity analyses. This study does not support the hypothesis that MPH increases risk of incident psychotic events. It does indicate an increased risk of psychotic events prior to the first prescription of MPH, which may be due to an association between psychotic events and the behavioural and attentional symptoms that led to psychiatric assessment and initiation of MPH treatment