Evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases in heterogeneous host populations

This is the final version. Available from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this record.The emergence and re-emergence of pathogens remains a major public health concern. Unfortunately, when and where pathogens will (re-)emerge is notoriously difficult to predict, as the erratic nature of those events is reinforced by the stochastic nature of pathogen evolution during the early phase of an epidemic. For instance, mutations allowing pathogens to escape host resistance may boost pathogen spread and promote emergence. Yet, the ecological factors that govern such evolutionary emergence remain elusive because of the lack of ecological realism of current theoretical frameworks and the difficulty of experimentally testing their predictions. Here, we develop a theoretical model to explore the effects of the heterogeneity of the host population on the probability of pathogen emergence, with or without pathogen evolution. We show that evolutionary emergence and the spread of escape mutations in the pathogen population is more likely to occur when the host population contains an intermediate proportion of resistant hosts. We also show that the probability of pathogen emergence rapidly declines with the diversity of resistance in the host population. Experimental tests using lytic bacteriophages infecting their bacterial hosts containing Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeat and CRISPR-associated (CRISPR-Cas) immune defenses confirm these theoretical predictions. These results suggest effective strategies for cross-species spillover and for the management of emerging infectious diseases.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Wellcome TrustBiotechnology & Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)European CommissionMarie Curie ActionsNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaLeverhulme Trus

The climate sensitivity of Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] in the southeastern European Alps

Tree ring chronologies were developed from trees growing at two sites in Slovenia which differed in their ecological and climatological characteristics. Ring width, maximum latewood density, annual height increment and latewood cellulose carbon isotope composition were developed at both sites and time-series verified against instrumental climate data over the period (AD 1960–AD 2002). Ring width sensitivity to summer temperature is site-dependent, with contrasting responses at alpine and lowland sites. Maximum density responds to September temperatures, suggesting lignification after cell division has ended for the season. Stable carbon isotopes have great potential, responding to summer temperature at oth alpine and lowland stands. Height increment appears relatively insensitive to climate, and is likely to be dominated by local stand dynamics

Being young in a changing world: how temperature and salinity changes interactively modify the performance of larval stages of the barnacle Amphibalanus improvisus

The fate of key species, such as the barnacle Amphibalanus improvisus, in the course of global change is of particular interest since any change in their abundance and/or performance may entail community-wide effects. In the fluctuating Western Baltic, species typically experience a broad range of environmental conditions, which may preselect them to better cope with climate change. In this study, we examined the sensitivity of two crucial ontogenetic phases (naupliar, cypris) of the barnacle toward a range of temperature (12, 20, and 28°C) and salinity (5, 15, and 30 psu) combinations. Under all salinity treatments, nauplii developed faster at intermediate and high temperatures. Cyprid metamorphosis success, in contrast, was interactively impacted by temperature and salinity. Survival of nauplii decreased with increasing salinity under all temperature treatments. Highest settlement rates occurred at the intermediate temperature and salinity combination, i.e., 20°C and 15 psu. Settlement success of “naive” cyprids, i.e., when nauplii were raised in the absence of stress (20°C/15 psu), was less impacted by stressful temperature/salinity combinations than that of cyprids with a stress history. Here, settlement success was highest at 30 psu particularly at low and high temperatures. Surprisingly, larval survival was not highest under the conditions typical for the Kiel Fjord at the season of peak settlement (20°C/15 psu). The proportion of nauplii that ultimately transformed to attached juveniles was, however, highest under these “home” conditions. Overall, only particularly stressful combinations of temperature and salinity substantially reduced larval performance and development. Given more time for adaptation, the relatively smooth climate shifts predicted will probably not dramatically affect this species

Possible causes of data model discrepancy in the temperature history of the last Millennium

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions are the main tools for quantifying pre-instrumental climate variations. For some metrics such as Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures, there is remarkable agreement between models and reconstructions. For other diagnostics, such as the regional response to volcanic eruptions, or hemispheric temperature differences, substantial disagreements between data and models have been reported. Here, we assess the potential sources of these discrepancies by comparing 1000-year hemispheric temperature reconstructions based on real-world paleoclimate proxies with climate-model-based pseudoproxies. These pseudoproxy experiments (PPE) indicate that noise inherent in proxy records and the unequal spatial distribution of proxy data are the key factors in explaining the data-model differences. For example, lower inter-hemispheric correlations in reconstructions can be fully accounted for by these factors in the PPE. Noise and data sampling also partly explain the reduced amplitude of the response to external forcing in reconstructions compared to models. For other metrics, such as inter-hemispheric differences, some, although reduced, discrepancy remains. Our results suggest that improving proxy data quality and spatial coverage is the key factor to increase the quality of future climate reconstructions, while the total number of proxy records and reconstruction methodology play a smaller role

Early prediction of treatment response to high-dose salvage chemotherapy in patients with relapsed germ cell cancer using [18F]FDG PET

To assess the ability of [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography for the early prediction of response in patients with relapsed metastatic germ cell tumours undergoing salvage high-dose chemotherapy. The role of positron emission tomography was compared with established means of tumour response assessment such as CT scans/MRI and serum tumour marker changes. In addition, positron emission tomography was compared with a current prognostic score which differentiates three prognostic groups with failure-free survival rates ranging from 5–50%. [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose uptake of metastases from germ cell tumours as well as CT scans and serum tumour marker were acquired after 2–3 cycles of induction chemotherapy but before the start of high-dose chemotherapy and CT scans/serum tumour marker were compared with the baseline examinations in 23 patients with relapsed germ cell tumours. To evaluate the validity of early response prediction by positron emission tomography, radiological monitoring and serum tumour marker decline, histopathologic response after resection of residual masses and/or the clinical course over 6 months after the end of treatment (relapse vs freedom of progression) were used. Overall, 10 patients (43%) achieved a marker-negative partial remission, three (13%) a marker-positive partial remission, five (22%) a disease stabilization and five (22%) progressed during treatment. Nine patients (39%) remained progression-free over 6 months following treatment, whereas 14 (61%) progressed. The outcome of high-dose chemotherapy was correctly predicted by positron emission tomography/CT scan/serum tumour marker in 91/59/48%. Eight patients with a favourably predicted outcome by CT scans plus serum tumour marker but a positive positron emission tomography prior to high-dose chemotherapy, failed treatment. This results in the following sensitivities/specificities for the prediction of failure of high-dose chemotherapy: positron emission tomography 100/78%; radiological monitoring 43/78%; serum tumour marker 15/100%. The positive and negative predictive values of positron emission tomography were 88 and 100%, respectively. As compared with the prognostic score, positron emission tomography was correctly positive in all patients of the three risk groups who failed treatment. In addition, a negative positron emission tomography correctly predicted a favourable outcome in the good and intermediate group. [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography imaging can be used to assess response to chemotherapy in patients with relapsed germ cell tumours early in the course of treatment and may help to identify patients most likely to achieve a favourable response to subsequent high-dose chemotherapy. In patients with response to induction chemotherapy according to CT scans or serum tumour marker evaluation, positron emission tomography seems to add information to detect patients with an overall unfavourable outcome. It may also be a valuable addition to the prognostic model particularly in the good and intermediate group for further selection of patients who will profit from high-dose chemotherapy

Immunological Mechanisms Mediating Hantavirus Persistence in Rodent Reservoirs

Hantaviruses, similar to several emerging zoonotic viruses, persistently infect their natural reservoir hosts, without causing overt signs of disease. Spillover to incidental human hosts results in morbidity and mortality mediated by excessive proinflammatory and cellular immune responses. The mechanisms mediating the persistence of hantaviruses and the absence of clinical symptoms in rodent reservoirs are only starting to be uncovered. Recent studies indicate that during hantavirus infection, proinflammatory and antiviral responses are reduced and regulatory responses are elevated at sites of increased virus replication in rodents. The recent discovery of structural and non-structural proteins that suppress type I interferon responses in humans suggests that immune responses in rodent hosts could be mediated directly by the virus. Alternatively, several host factors, including sex steroids, glucocorticoids, and genetic factors, are reported to alter host susceptibility and may contribute to persistence of hantaviruses in rodents. Humans and reservoir hosts differ in infection outcomes and in immune responses to hantavirus infection; thus, understanding the mechanisms mediating viral persistence and the absence of disease in rodents may provide insight into the prevention and treatment of disease in humans. Consideration of the coevolutionary mechanisms mediating hantaviral persistence and rodent host survival is providing insight into the mechanisms by which zoonotic viruses have remained in the environment for millions of years and continue to be transmitted to humans

Pathogenesis and Host Response in Syrian Hamsters following Intranasal Infection with Andes Virus

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS), also referred to as hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), is a rare but frequently fatal disease caused by New World hantaviruses. In humans HPS is associated with severe pulmonary edema and cardiogenic shock; however, the pathogenesis of this disease remains unclear largely due to a lack of suitable animal models for the study of disease progression. In this study we monitored clinical, virological, pathophysiological parameters and host immunological responses to decipher pathological factors and events in the lethal Syrian hamster model of HPS following intranasal inoculation of Andes virus. Transcriptional profiling of the host gene responses demonstrated a suppression of innate immune responses in most organs analyzed during the early stage of infection, except for in the lung which had low level activation of several pro-inflammatory genes. During this phase Andes virus established a systemic infection in hamsters, with viral antigen readily detectable in the endothelium of the majority of tissues analyzed by 7–8 days post-inoculation. Despite wide-spread infection, histological analysis confirmed pathological abnormalities were almost exclusively found in the lungs. Immediately preceding clinical signs of disease, intense activation of pro-inflammatory and Th1/Th2 responses were observed in the lungs as well as the heart, but not in peripheral organs, suggesting that localized immune-modulations by infection is paramount to pathogenesis. Throughout the course of infection a strong suppression of regulatory T-cell responses was noted and is hypothesized to be the basis of the aberrant immune activations. The unique and comprehensive monitoring of host immune responses to hantavirus infection increases our understanding of the immuno-pathogenesis of HPS and will facilitate the development of treatment strategies targeting deleterious host immunological responses

Integrative analysis of omics summary data reveals putative mechanisms underlying complex traits

The identification of genes and regulatory elements underlying the associations discovered by GWAS is essential to understanding the aetiology of complex traits (including diseases). Here, we demonstrate an analytical paradigm of prioritizing genes and regulatory elements at GWAS loci for follow-up functional studies. We perform an integrative analysis that uses summary-level SNP data from multi-omics studies to detect DNA methylation (DNAm) sites associated with gene expression and phenotype through shared genetic effects (i.e., pleiotropy). We identify pleiotropic associations between 7858 DNAm sites and 2733 genes. These DNAm sites are enriched in enhancers and promoters, and >40% of them are mapped to distal genes. Further pleiotropic association analyses, which link both the methylome and transcriptome to 12 complex traits, identify 149 DNAm sites and 66 genes, indicating a plausible mechanism whereby the effect of a genetic variant on phenotype is mediated by genetic regulation of transcription through DNAm