Hierarchical Bayesian estimation and hypothesis testing for delay discounting tasks

A state-of-the-art data analysis procedure is presented to conduct hierarchical Bayesian inference and hypothesis testing on delay discounting data. The delay discounting task is a key experimental paradigm used across a wide range of disciplines from economics, cognitive science, and neuroscience, all of which seek to understand how humans or animals trade off the immediacy verses the magnitude of a reward. Bayesian estimation allows rich inferences to be drawn, along with measures of confidence, based upon limited and noisy behavioural data. Hierarchical modelling allows more precise inferences to be made, thus using sometimes expensive or difficult to obtain data in the most efficient way. The proposed probabilistic generative model describes how participants compare the present subjective value of reward choices on a trial-to-trial basis, estimates participant- and group-level parameters. We infer discount rate as a function of reward size, allowing the magnitude effect to be measured. Demonstrations are provided to show how this analysis approach can aid hypothesis testing. The analysis is demonstrated on data from the popular 27-item monetary choice questionnaire (Kirby, Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 16(3), 457–462 2009), but will accept data from a range of protocols, including adaptive procedures. The software is made freely available to researchers

Adolescent environmental tobacco smoke exposure predicts academic achievement test failure.

PURPOSE: Research has linked prenatal tobacco exposure to neurocognitive and behavioral problems that can disrupt learning and school performance in childhood. Less is known about its effects on academic achievement in adolescence when controlling for known confounding factors (e.g., environmental tobacco smoke [ETS]). We hypothesized that prenatal tobacco exposure would decrease the likelihood of passing academic achievement tests taken at 16 and 18 years of age. METHODS: This study was a longitudinal analysis of birth cohort data including 6,380 pregnant women and offspring from the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS). Academic pass/fail performance was measured on British standardized achievement tests ("Ordinary Level" [O-Level] and Advanced Level: [A-Level]). Prenatal tobacco exposure plus controlling variables (ETS, teen offspring smoking and gender, maternal age at pregnancy, maternal smoking before pregnancy, and socioeconomic status) were included in regression models predicting O- and A-Level test failure. RESULTS: Significant predictors of test failure in the O-Level model included exposure to maternal (OR = 0.71, p < .0001) and paternal (OR = 0.70, p < .0001) ETS, as well as teen smoking, female gender, and lower SES. Prenatal tobacco exposure did not influence failure. Similar factors emerged in the A-Level model except that male gender contributed to likelihood of failure. Prenatal exposure remained nonsignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Our model suggests that adolescent exposure to ETS, not prenatal tobacco exposure, predicted failure on both O- and A-Level achievement tests when controlling for other factors known to influence achievement. Although this study has limitations, results bolster growing evidence of academic-related ETS consequences in adolescence

Maternal smoking during late pregnancy and offspring smoking behaviour

We explored the influence of maternal smoking during late pregnancy on the likelihood of smoking among offspring in adolescence and adulthood, using birth cohort data collected in the United Kingdom as part of the 1958 National Child Development Study. Longitudinal analysis indicated that maternal smoking during late pregnancy was associated with an increased likelihood of being a non-smoker at 16-year, 23-year and 33-year follow-up. This association differed between male and female offspring, with women showing no significant association and men showing an increased likelihood of being a non-smoker. There did not appear to be any association between maternal smoking during late pregnancy and cigarette consumption among offspring who reported smoking for either sex. These results are inconsistent with some previous reports that maternal smoking during pregnancy increases the likelihood of smoking among female offspring, although the observation of a moderating effect of sex on smoking behaviour is consistent with several previous reports. We discuss possible mechanisms for this association, and suggest factors that may account for the observed sex differences in this association, and the discrepancy between our results and some previous reports.We explored the influence of maternal smoking during late pregnancy on the likelihood of smoking among offspring in adolescence and adulthood, using birth cohort data collected in the United Kingdom as part of the 1958 National Child Development Study. Longitudinal analysis indicated that maternal smoking during late pregnancy was associated with an increased likelihood of being a non-smoker at 16-year, 23-year and 33-year follow-up. This association differed between male and female offspring, with women showing no significant association and men showing an increased likelihood of being a non-smoker. There did not appear to be any association between maternal smoking during late pregnancy and cigarette consumption among offspring who reported smoking for either sex. These results are inconsistent with some previous reports that maternal smoking during pregnancy increases the likelihood of smoking among female offspring, although the observation of a moderating effect of sex on smoking behaviour is consistent with several previous reports. We discuss possible mechanisms for this association, and suggest factors that may account for the observed sex differences in this association, and the discrepancy between our results and some previous reports