Fiscal Multipliers and Public Debt Dynamics in Consolidations

The success of a consolidation in reducing the debt ratio depends crucially on the value of the multiplier, which measures the impact of consolidation on growth, and on the reaction of sovereign yields to such a consolidation. We present a theoretical framework that formalizes the re spo nse of the public debt ratio to fiscal consolidations in relation to the value of fiscal multipliers, the starting debt level and the cyclical elasticity of the budget balance. We also assess the role of markets confidence to fiscal consolidations under al ternative scenarios. We find that with high levels of public debt and sizeable fiscal multipliers , debt ratios are likely to increase in the short term in response to fiscal consolidations. Hence, the typical horizon for a consolidation during crises episo des to reduce the debt ratio is two - three years , although this horizon depends critically on the size and persistence of fiscal multipliers and the reaction of financial markets. Anyway, such undesired debt responses are mainly short - lived. This effect is very unlikely in non - crisis times, as it requires a number of conditions difficult to observe at the same time , especially high fiscal multipliers

Activating mutations of the GNAQ gene: a frequent event in primary melanocytic neoplasms of the central nervous system

Primary melanocytic neoplasms of the central nervous system (CNS) are uncommon neoplasms derived from melanocytes that normally can be found in the leptomeninges. They cover a spectrum of malignancy grades ranging from low-grade melanocytomas to lesions of intermediate malignancy and overtly malignant melanomas. Characteristic genetic alterations in this group of neoplasms have not yet been identified. Using direct sequencing, we investigated 19 primary melanocytic lesions of the CNS (12 melanocytomas, 3 intermediate-grade melanocytomas, and 4 melanomas) for hotspot oncogenic mutations commonly found in melanocytic tumors of the skin (BRAF, NRAS, and HRAS genes) and uvea (GNAQ gene). Somatic mutations in the GNAQ gene at codon 209, resulting in constitutive activation of GNAQ, were detected in 7/19 (37%) tumors, including 6/12 melanocytomas, 0/3 intermediate-grade melanocytomas, and 1/4 melanomas. These GNAQ-mutated tumors were predominantly located around the spinal cord (6/7). One melanoma carried a BRAF point mutation that is frequently found in cutaneous melanomas (c.1799 T>A, p.V600E), raising the question whether this is a metastatic rather than a primary tumor. No HRAS or NRAS mutations were detected. We conclude that somatic mutations in the GNAQ gene at codon 209 are a frequent event in primary melanocytic neoplasms of the CNS. This finding provides new insight in the pathogenesis of these lesions and suggests that GNAQ-dependent mitogen-activated kinase signaling is a promising therapeutic target in these tumors. The prognostic and predictive value of GNAQ mutations in primary melanocytic lesions of the CNS needs to be determined in future studies

Improved discrimination of melanotic schwannoma from melanocytic lesions by combined morphological and GNAQ mutational analysis

The histological differential diagnosis between melanotic schwannoma, primary leptomeningeal melanocytic lesions and cellular blue nevus can be challenging. Correct diagnosis of melanotic schwannoma is important to select patients who need clinical evaluation for possible association with Carney complex. Recently, we described the presence of activating codon 209 mutations in the GNAQ gene in primary leptomeningeal melanocytic lesions. Identical codon 209 mutations have been described in blue nevi. The aims of the present study were to (1) perform a histological review of a series of lesions (initially) diagnosed as melanotic schwannoma and analyze them for GNAQ mutations, and (2) test the diagnostic value of GNAQ mutational analysis in the differential diagnosis with leptomeningeal melanocytic lesions. We retrieved 25 cases that were initially diagnosed as melanotic schwannoma. All cases were reviewed using established criteria and analyzed for GNAQ codon 209 mutations. After review, nine cases were classified as melanotic schwannoma. GNAQ mutations were absent in these nine cases. The remaining cases were reclassified as conventional schwannoma (n = 9), melanocytoma (n = 4), blue nevus (n = 1) and lesions that could not be classified with certainty as melanotic schwannoma or melanocytoma (n = 2). GNAQ codon 209 mutations were present in 3/4 melanocytomas and the blue nevus. Including results from our previous study in leptomeningeal melanocytic lesions, GNAQ mutations were highly specific (100%) for leptomeningeal melanocytic lesions compared to melanotic schwannoma (sensitivity 43%). We conclude that a detailed analysis of morphology combined with GNAQ mutational analysis can aid in the differential diagnosis of melanotic schwannoma with leptomeningeal melanocytic lesions

Ageing and Financial Stability

Abstract: Although the precise details are subject to major uncertainty, it seems likely that the process of population ageing will involve major shifts in financing, which may give rise to financial turbulence and systemic risk. The locus and scale of these effects will also depend on the predominant approach to retirement income provision. It is argued that the financial-stability risks arising from continuing with unsustainable pay-as-you-go systems would be more threatening than those arising from funding. Fiscal crises can have incalculable consequences for private financial markets, while pension funding involves more an adaptation by regulatory authorities to a more securitised and institutionalised financial system, that is likely to develop in any case. Concerning policy, for social security, the key issue is reform, so that the fiscal difficulties and their consequences for financial stability foreshadowed above do not arise. For institutional investors involved in funding, policy issues arising include the need for prudent person asset regulation, absence of guarantees generating moral hazard and international diversification of institutional portfolios, so that they are less dependent on the performance of the domestic economy than would otherwise be the case. Banks would not be immune to the side-effects of the various patterns ageing will generate, and an awareness of such risks as well a