Analysis of uncertainty in health care cost-effectiveness studies: an introduction to statistical issues and methods

Cost-effectiveness analysis is now an integral part of health technology assessment and addresses the question of whether a new treatment or other health care program offers good value for money. In this paper we introduce the basic framework for decision making with cost-effectiveness data and then review recent developments in statistical methods for analysis of uncertainty when cost-effectiveness estimates are based on observed data from a clinical trial. Although much research has focused on methods for calculating confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios using bootstrapping or Fieller’s method, these calculations can be problematic with a ratio-based statistic where numerator and=or denominator can be zero. We advocate plotting the joint density of cost and effect differences, together with cumulative density plots known as cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) to summarize the overall value-for-money of interventions. We also outline the net-benefit formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem and show that it has particular advantages over the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio formulation

Honeybee Colony Vibrational Measurements to Highlight the Brood Cycle

Insect pollination is of great importance to crop production worldwide and honey bees are amongst its chief facilitators. Because of the decline of managed colonies, the use of sensor technology is growing in popularity and it is of interest to develop new methods which can more accurately and less invasively assess honey bee colony status. Our approach is to use accelerometers to measure vibrations in order to provide information on colony activity and development. The accelerometers provide amplitude and frequency information which is recorded every three minutes and analysed for night time only. Vibrational data were validated by comparison to visual inspection data, particularly the brood development. We show a strong correlation between vibrational amplitude data and the brood cycle in the vicinity of the sensor. We have further explored the minimum data that is required, when frequency information is also included, to accurately predict the current point in the brood cycle. Such a technique should enable beekeepers to reduce the frequency with which visual inspections are required, reducing the stress this places on the colony and saving the beekeeper time

Suitability of databases in the Asia-Pacific for collaborative monitoring of vaccine safety

Introduction: Information regarding availability of electronic healthcare databases in the Asia-Pacific region is critical for planning vaccine safety assessments particularly, as COVID-19 vaccines are introduced. This study aimed to identify data sources in the region, potentially suitable for vaccine safety surveillance. This manuscript is endorsed by the International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE). Methods: Nineteen countries targeted for database reporting were identified using published country lists and review articles. Surveillance capacity was assessed using two surveys: a 9-item introductory survey and a 51-item full survey. Survey questions related to database characteristics, covariate and health outcome variables, vaccine exposure characteristics, access and governance, and dataset linkage capability. Other questions collated research/regulatory applications of the data and local publications detailing database use for research. Results: Eleven databases containing vaccine-specific information were identified across 8 countries. Databases were largely national in coverage (8/11, 73%), encompassed all ages (9/11, 82%) with population size from 1.4 to 52 million persons. Vaccine exposure information varied particularly for standardized vaccine codes (5/11, 46%), brand (7/11, 64%) and manufacturer (5/11, 46%). Outcome data were integrated with vaccine data in 6 (55%) databases and available via linkage in 5 (46%) databases. Data approval processes varied, impacting on timeliness of data access. Conclusions: Variation in vaccine data availability, complexities in data access including, governance and data release approval procedures, together with requirement for data linkage for outcome information, all contribute to the challenges in building a distributed network for vaccine safety assessment in the Asia-Pacific and globally. Common data models (CDMs) may help expedite vaccine safety research across the region

The radium legacy: Contaminated land and the committed effective dose from the ingestion of radium contaminated materials

The manufacture and use of radium in the early to mid-20th century within industrial, medicinal and recreational products have resulted in a large number of contaminated sites across a number of countries with notable examples in the USA and Europe. These sites, represent a significant number of unregulated sources of potential radiological exposure that have collectively and hitherto not been well characterised. In 2007, the Radioactive Contaminated Land (RCL) Regulations came into force in the UK, providing the statutory guidance for regulators to classify and deal with RCL. Here we report on results derived from digestion experiments to estimate committed effective dose, a key aspect of the RCL Regulations, from the ingestion of radium contaminated sources that can be found in the environment. This case study includes particles, clinker and artefacts that arise from past military activities on a site that was once an airfield at Dalgety Bay on the Firth of Forth, UK. Since 2011 the number of radium contaminated finds has increased by one order of magnitude on the foreshore areas of Dalgety Bay. The increase in finds may in large part be attributed to a change in monitoring practice. A subsample of sixty sources was selected, on the basis of their activity and dimensions, and subjected to digestion in simulated stomach and lower intestine solutions. The study demonstrated that more radium-226 (226Ra) and lead-210 (210Pb; driven by Polonium solubility) are dissolved from sources in artificial ‘stomach' solutions compared with ‘lower intestine' solutions. The combined ‘gut' solubility for 226Ra and apparent 210Pb varied from less than 1% to up to 35% ICRP 72 conversion factors were used to convert the activities measured in solution to committed effective dose. A little over 10% of the sources tested dissolved sufficient radioactivity to result in 100 mSv committed effective dose to an infant. Using the solubility of 35% as a worst case, minimum source activities necessary to deliver 100 mSv to the full age range of users of the foreshore were estimated. All the estimated activities have been detected and recovered through routine monitoring

Appropriate disclosure of a diagnosis of dementia : identifying the key behaviours of 'best practice'

Background: Despite growing evidence that many people with dementia want to know their diagnosis, there is wide variation in attitudes of professionals towards disclosure. The disclosure of the diagnosis of dementia is increasingly recognised as being a process rather than a one-off behaviour. However, the different behaviours that contribute to this process have not been comprehensively defined. No intervention studies to improve diagnostic disclosure in dementia have been reported to date. As part of a larger study to develop an intervention to promote appropriate disclosure, we sought to identify important disclosure behaviours and explore whether supplementing a literature review with other methods would result in the identification of new behaviours. Methods: To identify a comprehensive list of behaviours in disclosure we conducted a literature review, interviewed people with dementia and informal carers, and used a consensus process involving health and social care professionals. Content analysis of the full list of behaviours was carried out. Results: Interviews were conducted with four people with dementia and six informal carers. Eight health and social care professionals took part in the consensus panel. From the interviews, consensus panel and literature review 220 behaviours were elicited, with 109 behaviours over-lapping. The interviews and consensus panel elicited 27 behaviours supplementary to the review. Those from the interviews appeared to be self-evident but highlighted deficiencies in current practice and from the panel focused largely on balancing the needs of people with dementia and family members. Behaviours were grouped into eight categories: preparing for disclosure; integrating family members; exploring the patient's perspective; disclosing the diagnosis; responding to patient reactions; focusing on quality of life and well-being; planning for the future; and communicating effectively. Conclusion: This exercise has highlighted the complexity of the process of disclosing a diagnosis of dementia in an appropriate manner. It confirms that many of the behaviours identified in the literature (often based on professional opinion rather than empirical evidence) also resonate with people with dementia and informal carers. The presence of contradictory behaviours emphasises the need to tailor the process of disclosure to individual patients and carers. Our combined methods may be relevant to other efforts to identify and define complex clinical practices for further study.This project is funded by UK Medical Research Council, Grant reference number G0300999

Recurrent rare copy number variants increase risk for esotropia

Purpose: To determine whether rare copy number variants (CNVs) increase risk for comitant esotropia. Methods: CNVs were identified in 1614 Caucasian individuals with comitant esotropia and 3922 Caucasian controls from Illumina SNP genotyping using two Hidden Markov model (HMM) algorithms, PennCNV and QuantiSNP, which call CNVs based on logR ratio and B allele frequency. Deletions and duplications greater than 10 kb were included. Common CNVs were excluded. Association testing was performed with 1 million permutations in PLINK. Significant CNVs were confirmed with digital droplet polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR). Whole genome sequencing was performed to determine insertion location and breakpoints. Results: Esotropia patients have similar rates and proportions of CNVs compared with controls but greater total length and average size of both deletions and duplications. Three recurrent rare duplications significantly (P = 1 × 10-6) increase the risk of esotropia: chromosome 2p11.2 (hg19, 2:87428677-87965359), spanning one long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) and two microRNAs (OR 14.16; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.4-38.1); chromosome 4p15.2 (hg19, 4:25554332-25577184), spanning one lncRNA (OR 11.1; 95% CI 4.6-25.2); chromosome 10q11.22 (hg19, 10:47049547-47703870) spanning seven protein-coding genes, one lncRNA, and four pseudogenes (OR 8.96; 95% CI 5.4-14.9). Overall, 114 cases (7%) and only 28 controls (0.7%) had one of the three rare duplications. No case nor control had more than one of these three duplications. Conclusions: Rare CNVs are a source of genetic variation that contribute to the genetic risk for comitant esotropia, which is likely polygenic. Future research into the functional consequences of these recurrent duplications may shed light on the pathophysiology of esotropia

Binocular summation and other forms of non-dominant eye contribution in individuals with strabismic amblyopia during habitual viewing

YesAdults with amblyopia ('lazy eye'), long-standing strabismus (ocular misalignment) or both typically do not experience visual symptoms because the signal from weaker eye is given less weight than the signal from its fellow. Here we examine the contribution of the weaker eye of individuals with strabismus and amblyopia with both eyes open and with the deviating eye in its anomalous motor position. The task consisted of a blue-on-yellow detection task along a horizontal line across the central 50 degrees of the visual field. We compare the results obtained in ten individuals with strabismic amblyopia with ten visual normals. At each field location in each participant, we examined how the sensitivity exhibited under binocular conditions compared with sensitivity from four predictions, (i) a model of binocular summation, (ii) the average of the monocular sensitivities, (iii) dominant-eye sensitivity or (iv) non-dominant-eye sensitivity. The proportion of field locations for which the binocular summation model provided the best description of binocular sensitivity was similar in normals (50.6%) and amblyopes (48.2%). Average monocular sensitivity matched binocular sensitivity in 14.1% of amblyopes' field locations compared to 8.8% of normals'. Dominant-eye sensitivity explained sensitivity at 27.1% of field locations in amblyopes but 21.2% in normals. Non-dominant-eye sensitivity explained sensitivity at 10.6% of field locations in amblyopes but 19.4% in normals. Binocular summation provided the best description of the sensitivity profile in 6/10 amblyopes compared to 7/10 of normals. In three amblyopes, dominant-eye sensitivity most closely reflected binocular sensitivity (compared to two normals) and in the remaining amblyope, binocular sensitivity approximated to an average of the monocular sensitivities. Our results suggest a strong positive contribution in habitual viewing from the non-dominant eye in strabismic amblyopes. This is consistent with evidence from other sources that binocular mechanisms are frequently intact in strabismic and amblyopic individuals

Nanoparticles as multimodal photon transducers of ionizing radiation

In biomedical imaging, nanoparticles combined with radionuclides that generate Cerenkov luminescence are used in diagnostic imaging, photon-induced therapies, and as activatable probes. In these applications, the nanoparticle is often viewed as a carrier inert to ionizing radiation from the radionuclide. However, certain phenomena such as enhanced nanoparticle luminescence and generation of reactive oxygen species cannot be explained by only Cerenkov luminescence interactions with nanoparticles. Herein, we report methods to examine the mechanisms of nanoparticle excitation by radionuclides, including interactions with Cerenkov luminescence, β particles, and γ radiation. We demonstrate that β scintillation contributes appreciably to excitation and reactivity in certain nanoparticle systems and that excitation of nanoparticles composed of large atomic number atoms by radionuclides generates X-rays, enabling multiplexed imaging through single photon emission computed tomography. These findings demonstrate practical optical imaging and therapy using radionuclides with emission energies below the Cerenkov threshold, thereby expanding the list of applicable radionuclides

Career Success in Different Countries : Reflections on the 5C Project

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