A Sample Glossary of Systems Analysis

Every activity -- and systems analysis is no exception tends to develop its own vocabulary. Indeed, systems analysis, because of its interdisciplinary nature, has been more prone than most not only to invent new words for new concepts but also -- and more often -- to borrow established terms from the disciplines it employs and to change their meaning, sometimes slightly, sometimes grossly, sometimes inconsistently. The result of this can be confusion, misunderstanding, and failure of communication. This glossary is an attempt at resolving part of the ambiguity. The glossary, as it stands now, is tentative. It has been prepared for the preliminary version of the Handbook of Applied Systems Analysis, and the terms included are those used in the Handbook

Atenolol versus losartan in children and young adults with Marfan's syndrome

BACKGROUND : Aortic-root dissection is the leading cause of death in Marfan's syndrome. Studies suggest that with regard to slowing aortic-root enlargement, losartan may be more effective than beta-blockers, the current standard therapy in most centers. METHODS : We conducted a randomized trial comparing losartan with atenolol in children and young adults with Marfan's syndrome. The primary outcome was the rate of aortic-root enlargement, expressed as the change in the maximum aortic-root-diameter z score indexed to body-surface area (hereafter, aortic-root z score) over a 3-year period. Secondary outcomes included the rate of change in the absolute diameter of the aortic root; the rate of change in aortic regurgitation; the time to aortic dissection, aortic-root surgery, or death; somatic growth; and the incidence of adverse events. RESULTS : From January 2007 through February 2011, a total of 21 clinical centers enrolled 608 participants, 6 months to 25 years of age (mean [+/- SD] age, 11.5 +/- 6.5 years in the atenolol group and 11.0 +/- 6.2 years in the losartan group), who had an aorticroot z score greater than 3.0. The baseline-adjusted rate of change (+/- SE) in the aortic-root z score did not differ significantly between the atenolol group and the losartan group (-0.139 +/- 0.013 and -0.107 +/- 0.013 standard-deviation units per year, respectively; P = 0.08). Both slopes were significantly less than zero, indicating a decrease in the degree of aortic-root dilatation relative to body-surface area with either treatment. The 3-year rates of aortic-root surgery, aortic dissection, death, and a composite of these events did not differ significantly between the two treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS : Among children and young adults with Marfan's syndrome who were randomly assigned to losartan or atenolol, we found no significant difference in the rate of aorticroot dilatation between the two treatment groups over a 3-year period

BMN operators with vector impurities, Z_2 symmetry and pp-waves

We calculate the coefficients of three-point functions of BMN operators with two vector impurities. We find that these coefficients can be obtained from those of the three-point functions of scalar BMN operators by interchanging the coefficient for the symmetric-traceless representation with the coefficient for the singlet. We conclude that the Z_2 symmetry of the pp-wave string theory is not manifest at the level of field theory three-point correlators.Comment: 25 pages, 7 figures. v1: A reference and a footnote added; v2: New contributions found, Z_2 symmetry lost in 3-point function

Active Galactic Nuclei at the Crossroads of Astrophysics

Over the last five decades, AGN studies have produced a number of spectacular examples of synergies and multifaceted approaches in astrophysics. The field of AGN research now spans the entire spectral range and covers more than twelve orders of magnitude in the spatial and temporal domains. The next generation of astrophysical facilities will open up new possibilities for AGN studies, especially in the areas of high-resolution and high-fidelity imaging and spectroscopy of nuclear regions in the X-ray, optical, and radio bands. These studies will address in detail a number of critical issues in AGN research such as processes in the immediate vicinity of supermassive black holes, physical conditions of broad-line and narrow-line regions, formation and evolution of accretion disks and relativistic outflows, and the connection between nuclear activity and galaxy evolution.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures; review contribution; "Exploring the Cosmic Frontier: Astrophysical Instruments for the 21st Century", ESO Astrophysical Symposia Serie

Towards Machine Wald

The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of sophisticated statistical models, these models are still designed \emph{by humans} because there is currently no known recipe or algorithm for dividing the design of a statistical model into a sequence of arithmetic operations. Indeed enabling computers to \emph{think} as \emph{humans} have the ability to do when faced with uncertainty is challenging in several major ways: (1) Finding optimal statistical models remains to be formulated as a well posed problem when information on the system of interest is incomplete and comes in the form of a complex combination of sample data, partial knowledge of constitutive relations and a limited description of the distribution of input random variables. (2) The space of admissible scenarios along with the space of relevant information, assumptions, and/or beliefs, tend to be infinite dimensional, whereas calculus on a computer is necessarily discrete and finite. With this purpose, this paper explores the foundations of a rigorous framework for the scientific computation of optimal statistical estimators/models and reviews their connections with Decision Theory, Machine Learning, Bayesian Inference, Stochastic Optimization, Robust Optimization, Optimal Uncertainty Quantification and Information Based Complexity.Comment: 37 page

Planck 2015 results. XXVII. The Second Planck Catalogue of Sunyaev-Zeldovich Sources

We present the all-sky Planck catalogue of Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) sources detected from the 29 month full-mission data. The catalogue (PSZ2) is the largest SZ-selected sample of galaxy clusters yet produced and the deepest all-sky catalogue of galaxy clusters. It contains 1653 detections, of which 1203 are confirmed clusters with identified counterparts in external data-sets, and is the first SZ-selected cluster survey containing > $10^3$ confirmed clusters. We present a detailed analysis of the survey selection function in terms of its completeness and statistical reliability, placing a lower limit of 83% on the purity. Using simulations, we find that the Y5R500 estimates are robust to pressure-profile variation and beam systematics, but accurate conversion to Y500 requires. the use of prior information on the cluster extent. We describe the multi-wavelength search for counterparts in ancillary data, which makes use of radio, microwave, infra-red, optical and X-ray data-sets, and which places emphasis on the robustness of the counterpart match. We discuss the physical properties of the new sample and identify a population of low-redshift X-ray under- luminous clusters revealed by SZ selection. These objects appear in optical and SZ surveys with consistent properties for their mass, but are almost absent from ROSAT X-ray selected samples

Poetry, painting and change on the edge of England

In this article we discuss our creative research on and with a contested coastal community on one of the UK's last existing plotlands, the humberston Fitties. Plotlands can be briefly defined as places where individuals have historically self‐built holiday houses. This 56‐acre strip of land with 319 chalets is on the Humber estuary and lies close to Cleethorpes, a seaside resort, and Grimsby, a seaport now facing post‐industrial decline. Our cross‐disciplinary collaborative practice between poetry and visual art explores open, environmentally aware engagements and methodologies with landscape and rural place. We investigate the relation of social, environmental and energy politics, looking out to land and sea and back to the community. Our results include original art and poetry presented innovatively together in exhibitions and books, in addition to local people's responses to our methodologies and the work itself

First record of Rhabdoceras suessi (Ammonoidea, Late Triassic) from the Transylvanian Triassic Series of the Eastern Carpathians (Romania) and a review of its biochronology, paleobiogeography and paleoecology

Abstract The occurrence of the heteromorphic ammonoid Rhabdoceras suessi Hauer, 1860, is recorded for the first time in the Upper Triassic limestone of the Timon-Ciungi olistolith in the Rarău Syncline, Eastern Carpathians. A single specimen of Rhabdoceras suessi co-occurs with Monotis (Monotis) salinaria that constrains its occurrence here to the Upper Norian (Sevatian 1). It is the only known heteromorphic ammonoid in the Upper Triassic of the Romanian Carpathians. Rhabdoceras suessi is a cosmopolitan species widely recorded in low and mid-paleolatitude faunas. It ranges from the Late Norian to the Rhaetian and is suitable for high-resolution worldwide correlations only when it co-occurs with shorter-ranging choristoceratids, monotid bivalves, or the hydrozoan Heterastridium. Formerly considered as the index fossil for the Upper Norian (Sevatian) Suessi Zone, by the latest 1970s this species lost its key biochronologic status among Late Triassic ammonoids, and it generated a controversy in the 1980s concerning the status of the Rhaetian stage. New stratigraphic data from North America and Europe in the subsequent decades resulted in a revised ammonoid biostratigraphy for the uppermost Triassic, the Rhaetian being reinstalled as the topmost stage in the current standard timescale of the Triassic. The geographic distribution of Rhabdoceras is compiled from published worldwide records, and its paleobiogeography and paleoecology are discussed

Developing a predictive modelling capacity for a climate change-vulnerable blanket bog habitat: Assessing 1961-1990 baseline relationships

Aim: Understanding the spatial distribution of high priority habitats and developing predictive models using climate and environmental variables to replicate these distributions are desirable conservation goals. The aim of this study was to model and elucidate the contributions of climate and topography to the distribution of a priority blanket bog habitat in Ireland, and to examine how this might inform the development of a climate change predictive capacity for peat-lands in Ireland. Methods: Ten climatic and two topographic variables were recorded for grid cells with a spatial resolution of 1010 km, covering 87% of the mainland land surface of Ireland. Presence-absence data were matched to these variables and generalised linear models (GLMs) fitted to identify the main climatic and terrain predictor variables for occurrence of the habitat. Candidate predictor variables were screened for collinearity, and the accuracy of the final fitted GLM was evaluated using fourfold cross-validation based on the area under the curve (AUC) derived from a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. The GLM predicted habitat occurrence probability maps were mapped against the actual distributions using GIS techniques. Results: Despite the apparent parsimony of the initial GLM using only climatic variables, further testing indicated collinearity among temperature and precipitation variables for example. Subsequent elimination of the collinear variables and inclusion of elevation data produced an excellent performance based on the AUC scores of the final GLM. Mean annual temperature and total mean annual precipitation in combination with elevation range were the most powerful explanatory variable group among those explored for the presence of blanket bog habitat. Main conclusions: The results confirm that this habitat distribution in general can be modelled well using the non-collinear climatic and terrain variables tested at the grid resolution used. Mapping the GLM-predicted distribution to the observed distribution produced useful results in replicating the projected occurrence of the habitat distribution over an extensive area. The methods developed will usefully inform future climate change predictive modelling for Irelan