Natural disturbances and natural hazards in mountain forests: a framework for the economic valuation

This paper focuses on the economic aspects of the protective role of forests against natural hazards, developing an estimation methodology applicable on a local scale. We identified the main variables that influence on a local level those forest attributes involved directly or indirectly in protection with the aim of zoning forests in homogeneous areas in terms of the level of protection they offer. Applying the replacement cost method a monetary value of the protective function can be estimated for homogeneous zones. The zoning permits the cost of replacement works to be calculated precisely according to the characteristics of the territory in each zone. The methodology was tested in the province of Trento (North East Italy) in an area where forests serve multiple functions and where the social objectives are intimately linked to those of indirect protection of the mountain slopes and direct protection of human activities. The estimation of the protective function of mountain forests enables environmental concerns to be included in economic decision-making by integrating economic and ecological approaches. It could be useful as a criterion for ranking different forest management options, i.e. forest management approaches based on the principle of close-to-nature forestry with management forms that focus on the productive function of forests. Accordingly it could enable forest managers to build consensus around management forms that take into account natural hazards and natural disturbances.

Identification of forest areas with indirect and direct protection function

Na območju gozdnogospodarskih enot Tržič in Jezersko smo določili območja s poudarjeno funkcijo varovanja gozdnih zemljišč in sestojev ter zaščitno funkcijo gozda. Območja s poudarjeno zaščitno funkcijo pred padajočim kamenjem in snežnimi plazovi smo določili na podlagi kriterijev, ki jih uporabljajo v srednjeevropskih državah. Najprej smo določili območja naravnih nevarnosti z največjim dosegom in potencialno ogroženo infrastrukturo, ki se nahaja v teh območjih (stavbe, javne ceste, območje smučišča). Gozdu, ki leži med virom naravne nevarnosti (npr. virom padajočega kamenja, območjem proženja snežnih plazov) in ogroženo infrastrukturo (npr. cesto, stavbo) smo opredelili zaščitno funkcijo in določili stopnjo naravne nevarnosti. Območja s poudarjeno varovalno funkcijo smo glede na veljavne kriterije za valorizacijo gozdnega prostora določili na podlagi digitalnega modela višin (12,5 m x 12,5 m) in razpoložljivih strokovnih podlag. Prostorske analize smo izvedli v programih MapInfo 10.5 in ArcGIS 10.0, za delo pa uporabili razpoložljive prostorske podatke (npr. kataster snežnih plazov, pedološko karto območja največje višine snežne odeje). Ugotovili smo, da je površina območja s poudarjeno varovalno funkcijo za 80 %, površina območij z zaščitno funkcijo pa za 46 % večja od površin, ki so bile določene s karto funkcij Zavoda za gozdove Slovenije. V predelih s poudarjeno zaščitno funkcijo pred padajočim kamenjem smo na podlagi sestojnih kazalnikov prikazali določanje primernosti stanja gozda za zaščito pred padajočim kamenjem in na podlagi odstopanja strukture sestojev od želenega stanja predlagali prioritete za ukrepanje.We delineated forests with direct and indirect protection function in forest management units Tržič and Jezersko. We adopted the methodology of delineation of forests with direct protection function against rockfall and avalanches from other Central European countries. Firstly we modeled the maximum reach of natural hazards and identified infrastructure threatened by natural hazards. We assigned direct protection function and defined the level of risk to forests located between the source of natural hazards and endangered infrastructure. We delineated areas with indirect protection function on the basis of digital elevation model (12,5 x 12,5 m) and existing expert data of Non-forestry institutions (e.g. Pedologic map, lavine cadastre), taking into account the criteria from the Forest planning guidelines (Priročnik za %, 2008). We used GIS software MapInfo 10.5 and ArcGIS 10.0 for spatial analysis. Elaborated maps of areas with direct and indirect protection function were compared with the Slovenia Forest Service maps. Comparison showed that surface of areas with indirect protection function was 80 % larger, and surface of areas with direct protection function 46 % larger than surface of areas with the same functions under Slovenia Forest Service maps. For areas with direct protection function, we proposed the procedure for assessing suitability of forest stands for protection against rockfalls according to the stand indicators, and recommended management priorities according to the deviation of current forest stand structure from the optimal one

Analysis of cold based hanging glaciers using a Lagrangian damage model

This master’s thesis focuses on the Analysis of cold-based hanging glaciers using a Lagrangian damage model developed by Mercenier et al. in 2018 (Mercenier et al., 2018). Hanging glaciers are small and found on steep slopes at high altitudes. Hanging glaciers also contain a natural hazard risk because of their avalanching behavior (Margreth et al., 2017). The project aims to establish a better understanding of the dynamic processes of hanging glaciers through modeling. The focus is on answering what sensitivities the model shows to changes in parameters and whether it can estimate how the model compares to a real glacier. The modeling approach consists of a general assessment of the model, a parameter study, a brief investigation of critical stable geometries, and as a final step the representation of a real glacier. The research showed that the model works well and represents glaciers as expected. The parameter study revealed that Glen’s flow factor did not affect stability, decreasing the damage rate and increasing the healing term improves the stability, and that increasing paired slope, slope difference length, and back height decreased stability. The model also displayed that glaciers with varying lengths converge on a critical stable geometry for fixed parameters, which responds to parameter changes as expected after the parameter study. When modeling the simplified Grande Jorasses glacier, the modeling results suggested that either the damage rate used is not suitable and needs to be decreased, the healing plays a very important role, or a combination of both. As the concept of healing does not have the thermodynamical foundation as other parameters (Pralong & Funk, 2005), the damage rate used was calibrated from data from wet calving glaciers (Mercenier et al., 2018). We do not feel confident to judge what is true. But it raises an interesting basis for future research

LOCAL CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS OF THE AVALANCHES. CASE STUDIES IN REPRESENTATIVE SECTORS WITHIN PIATRA CRAIULUI AND FĂGĂRAȘ MOUNTAINS

Genesis conditions and effects of avalanches. Case studies in representative sectors within Piatra Craiului and Fagars mountains. The present paper aims at investigating the avalanches and their impact on the environment components. Snow avalanches are natural phenomena, which are controlled by the specific features of the mountain realm. They start suddenly due to the combination of meteorological and non-meteorological factors, which make the loose materials (snow, ice, detritus, vegetation or soil) collapse or slide down along the slope. In consequence, erosion is increased or facilitated because of the impact they have on the other components of the environment (thalwegs deepening, forest destruction). The distribution of avalanches is hard to be highlighted, because of the inaccessible lands and the adverse meteorological conditions. From this reason, one needs to know their complex features, namely the morphology, vegetation and spatial dynamics of the areas prone to such phenomena. The effects on the environment can be easily identified in the mountain realm, inasmuch as they create typical corridors along the streams crossing the forests. At the same time, however, they have certain effects on the slope deposits, too. These will be further presented with examples for the eastern slope of the Piatra Craiului Mts. and the Suru – Negoiu section in the Făgăraș Mts. These areas are deemed representative for each of the mentioned mountain massifs

Communication and emotion in bots and chatbots: the cases of Fabi Grossi and Code of Hope

O mapeamento e análise de emoções e sentimentos em conteúdos publicados nas redes sociais online tem sido uma das ferramentas mais modernas em uso atualmente para promover uma comunicação engajadora e eficaz com públicos diversos na internet. Com o avanço de tecnologias algorítmicas e de inteligência artificial, o recurso tem se mostrado útil para identificar e responder a emoções pré-programadas. Neste artigo, após extensa revisão de literatura sobre o estado da arte dos estudos que remetem à virada emocional no campo da comunicação, são apresentadas duas ferramentas interativas baseadas em respostas emocionais: o chatbot Fabi Grossi e o sistema de monitoramento de emoções Code of Hope. Conclui-se que ambas, apesar de divergirem na forma de funcionamento, possuem premissas similares no entendimento da importância da dimensão emocional da comunicação para prevenir casos de suicídio entre jovens e representam bons exemplos de como a virada emocional pode ser útil e eficaz no contexto de sistemas automatizados de comunicação.The mapping and analysis of emotions and feelings in content published on online social networks has been one of the most modern tools in use today to promote engaging and effective communication with diverse audiences on the internet. With the advancement of algorithmic and artificial intelligence technologies, the resource has proven useful for identifying and responding to pre-programmed emotions. In this article, after an extensive literature review on the state of the art of studies that refer to the emotional turn in the field of communication, two interactive tools based on emotional responses are presented: the chatbot Fabi Grossi and the emotion monitoring system Code of Hope. It is concluded that both, despite diverging in the way they work, have similar premises in understanding the importance of the emotional dimension of communication to prevent cases of suicide among young people and represent good examples of how the emotional turn can be useful and effective in the context of automated communication systems.Artigo apoiado por fundos nacionais através da Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P., no âmbito do Financiamento Plurianual do Centro de Investigação em Comunicação e Sociedade 2020-2023 (que integra o financiamento base, com a referência UIDB/00736/2020

Congiungere la modellazione dei movimenti di massa alla realtà

I flussi di massa sono pericoli naturali di tipo gravitativo tipici delle zone montane che causano ogni anno perdite economiche e vittime. I modelli numerici sono strumenti per prevedere la propagazione di potenziali eventi di flussi di massa su una determinata topografia, ma questi richiedono diversi input. Gli input e i processi che sostanzialmente influenzano i risultati dei modelli sono rappresentati dalla dal volume, dalle condizioni di innesco e dalle interazioni topografia – flusso di massa. Pertanto, l'obiettivo principale della tesi è quello di migliorare la quantificazione del volume coinvolto in un evento di flusso di massa e di aumentare la rappresentazione dell’interazione tra il flusso e la topografia. Quindi, sono stati studiati due tipi di flussi di massa: debris flow e valanghe di neve. Per quanto riguarda i debris flow, la tesi vuole migliorare l'affidabilità dei modelli analizzando l'aumento del volume del flusso attraverso l'erosione del letto del canale e il collasso di strutture di mitigazione. Per le valanghe di neve, lo studio ha come obbiettivo quello di migliorare l'identificazione delle possibili aree di distacco. La tesi è strutturata come una raccolta di articoli dei quali tre sono stati pubblicati e uno è in fase di revisione. Il primo articolo ha migliorato la rappresentazione dei fenomeni erosivi nei modelli numerici grazie ai dati di un evento di debris flow avvenuto nel bacino del rio Gere (Veneto, IT). Una funzione basata sui valori di pendenza è stata definita per calcolare il coefficiente di erosione, successivamente utilizzato per riprodurre l’erosione osservata nel canale. I risultati sono utili per migliorare l'accuratezza di futuri scenari da debris flow per i quali l'erosione è un importante processo nella dinamica del flusso. Il secondo studio ha definito una procedura per simulare l'effetto del collasso delle briglie di consolidamento in un evento di debris flow. La metodologia è stata sviluppata nel rio Rotian (Trentino, IT), dove un evento di pioggia estrema ha innescato un debris flow che ha provocato il collasso di una serie di 15 briglie. La metodologia sviluppata può essere direttamente applicata per mappare il rischio residuo dei canali da debris flow in cui siano presenti opere o dove la mancanza di manutenzione delle misure di mitigazione può diminuire la loro stabilità. Il terzo progetto riguarda lo studio della rugosità del terreno. Sette algoritmi di calcolo della rugosità sono stati testati in due aree studio al fine di identificare quale algoritmo possa rappresentare nel modo più appropriato le tipologie del terreno che interagiscono con i fenomeni di massa. I risultati hanno mostrato che il miglior algoritmo è risultato il vector ruggedness e che l’utilizzo di una risoluzione maggiore non ha migliorato le performance. Il quarto progetto ha analizzato la capacità di protezione delle foreste colpite da tempeste di vento. Due nuovi algoritmi per valutare le caratteristiche degli alberi abbattuti sono stati sviluppati. I risultati hanno evidenziato che il momento di protezione minimo delle foreste contro le valanghe di neve è dopo 10 anni l'evento di tempesta. Inoltre, gli algoritmi possono essere applicati direttamente su scala regionale per la gestione e il monitoraggio delle aree forestali colpite da tempeste. I diversi studi hanno analizzato i processi di erosione, l'effetto del collasso di briglie e l'identificazione di potenziali aree di innesco. I risultati dei quattro progetti hanno risposto ai corrispondenti obbiettivi, migliorando la comprensione dei flussi di massa e quindi la previsione di eventi futuri. Inoltre, i progetti forniscono importanti risultati metodologici e nuovi metodi sono stati sviluppati e testati al fine di migliorare la stima del volume dei flussi di massa. Tali metodi sono inoltre applicabili al di fuori delle aree di studio prese in esame, dando supporto a diversi stakeholder nella gestione dei rischi naturali.Mass flows are gravitational natural hazards typical of mountain areas causing economic losses and fatalities every year. Numerical models are a way to predict the propagation of potential mass flow events over a certain topography. To appropriately reproduce future events, models required different inputs. Inputs and processes consistently affecting the outcomes of mass flow models regard the released volume, the triggering conditions and the interaction with the topography and the features on the ground once the flow is in motion. Therefore, the main objective of the thesis is to improve the quantification of the input volume and to improve the implementation of processes of interaction with the basal topography. In this context, the focus has been placed on two types of mass flows: debris flows and snow avalanches. Regarding debris flows, the study aims to improve the reliability of models to capture the increase in flow volume through channel bed erosion and mitigation structure collapse. For snow avalanches, the study wants to improve the identification of possible avalanche release areas taking into account the role of different types of vegetation structures. The thesis was structured as a collection of articles of which three have been published and one is currently under review. The first paper investigated the improvement of debris flow erosion in computational models thanks to data of a severe event occurred in the Gere catchment (Veneto, IT). A function based on a smoothed terrain slope map was calibrated to derive the erosion coefficient, successively used to reproduce the observed erosion process occurred in the channel. Results can improve the reliability of future scenarios related to debris flows for which bed erosion plays an important role in volume increase. The second study defined a procedure to simulate the effect of check dam collapse in a debris flow event. The methodology was developed in the rio Rotian (Trentino, IT) where an extreme rainfall event triggered a debris flow that collapsed a series of 15 check dams. The adopted methodology can be straight applied to map the residual risk of mountain channels or where the lack of maintenance may decrease torrent countermeasure stability. The third project involves the study of terrain roughness. We tested seven algorithms computing terrain roughness in two study areas with the aim to identify which roughness algorithm can represent in the most appropriate way the features on the ground interacting with natural hazards. Outcomes showed that the best algorithm resulted the vector ruggedness and that the increase in data resolution did not improve the classification performance. Results can improve the reliability of mass flow propagation models over natural areas. The fourth project analysed the protection capacity of forests affected by windstorms. We developed and tested two algorithms to assess the characteristics of abated trees. Results assessed that the time of minimum level of forest protection against snow avalanches in 10 years after the storm event. The developed algorithms can be straight applied at regional scale to monitor and improve the management of windthrow areas. The projects investigated entrainment processes, effect of mitigation structure failures and the identification of potential triggering areas. Outcomes of the four projects filled the respective gaps of knowledge, improving the understanding of mass flows and then the prediction of future events. Furthermore, the projects have strong methodological outcomes and new methods to improve the volume estimation of mass flows have been developed and tested. Such methods are further applicable outside of the study areas, supporting different stakeholders in the management of natural hazards of mountain areas