Physical controls on the scale-dependence of ensemble streamflow forecast dispersion

Abstract. The accuracy of ensemble streamflow forecasts (ESFs) is impacted by the propagation of uncertainty associated with quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) through the physical processes occurring in the basin. In this study, we consider consistent ESFs (i.e., observations and ensemble members are equally likely) and we study the effect of basin area (A) and antecedent rainfall (AR) on the ESF dispersion, a metric of flood forecast skill. Results from a set of numerical experiments indicate that: (i) for small basins (≲180 km2), ESF dispersion is mainly dominated by the runoff generation process and does not depend on the basin size A; (ii) for larger areas, ESF dispersion decreases with A according to a log-linear relation due to the decreasing variability of ensemble QPFs and, possibly, to the channel routing process. In addition, we found that, regardless the basin size, the ESF dispersion decreases as AR increases, and that the influence of AR is larger for basins with fast response times. Physical controls (land cover, soil texture and morphometric features) on the analyzed basin response confirm these interpretations

Distributed hydrologic modeling of a sparsely monitored basin in Sardinia, Italy, through hydrometeorological downscaling

The water resources and hydrologic extremes in Mediterranean basins are heavily influenced by climate variability. Modeling these watersheds is difficult due to the complex nature of the hydrologic response as well as the sparseness of hydrometeorological observations. In this work, we present a strategy to calibrate a distributed hydrologic model, known as TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), in the Rio Mannu basin (RMB), a medium-sized watershed (472.5 km2) located in an agricultural area in Sardinia, Italy. In the RMB, precipitation, streamflow and meteorological data were collected within different historical periods and at diverse temporal resolutions. We designed two statistical tools for downscaling precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data to create the hourly, high-resolution forcing for the hydrologic model from daily records. Despite the presence of several sources of uncertainty in the observations and model parameterization, the use of the disaggregated forcing led to good calibration and validation performances for the tRIBS model, when daily discharge observations were available. The methodology proposed here can be also used to disaggregate outputs of climate models and conduct high-resolution hydrologic simulations with the goal of quantifying the impacts of climate change on water resources and the frequency of hydrologic extremes within medium-sized basins

Semiarid watershed response in central New Mexico and its sensitivity to climate variability and change

Hydrologic processes in the semiarid regions of the Southwest United States are considered to be highly susceptible to variations in temperature and precipitation characteristics due to the effects of climate change. Relatively little is known about the potential impacts of climate change on the basin hydrologic response, namely streamflow, evapotranspiration and recharge, in the region. In this study, we present the development and application of a continuous, semi-distributed watershed model for climate change studies in semiarid basins of the Southwest US. Our objective is to capture hydrologic processes in large watersheds, while accounting for the spatial and temporal variations of climate forcing and basin properties in a simple fashion. We apply the model to the Río Salado basin in central New Mexico since it exhibits both a winter and summer precipitation regime and has a historical streamflow record for model testing purposes. Subsequently, we use a sequence of climate change scenarios that capture observed trends for winter and summer precipitation, as well as their interaction with higher temperatures, to perform long-term ensemble simulations of the basin response. Results of the modeling exercise indicate that precipitation uncertainty is amplified in the hydrologic response, in particular for processes that depend on a soil saturation threshold. We obtained substantially different hydrologic sensitivities for winter and summer precipitation ensembles, indicating a greater sensitivity to more intense summer storms as compared to more frequent winter events. In addition, the impact of changes in precipitation characteristics overwhelmed the effects of increased temperature in the study basin. Nevertheless, combined trends in precipitation and temperature yield a more sensitive hydrologic response throughout the year

Controls on runoff generation and scale-dependence in a distributed hydrologic model

International audienceHydrologic response in natural catchments is controlled by a set of complex interactions between storm properties, basin characteristics and antecedent wetness conditions. This study investigates the transient runoff response to spatially-uniform storms of varying properties using a distributed model of the coupled surface-subsurface system, which treats heterogeneities in topography, soils and vegetation. We demonstrate the control that the partitioning into multiple runoff mechanisms (infiltration-excess, saturation-excess, perched return flow and groundwater exfiltration) has on nonlinearities in the rainfall-runoff transformation and its scale-dependence. Antecedent wetness imposed through a distributed water table position is varied to illustrate its effect on runoff generation. Results indicate that transitions observed in basin flood response (magnitude, timing and volume) can be explained by shifts in the surface-subsurface partitioning. An analysis of the spatial organization of runoff production also shows that multiple mechanisms have specific catchment niches and can occur simultaneously in the basin. In addition, catchment scale plays an important role in the distribution of runoff production as basin characteristics (soils, vegetation, topography and initial wetness) are varied with basin area. For example, we illustrate how storm characteristics and antecedent wetness play a dramatic role in the scaling properties of the catchment runoff ratio

Distributed hydrologic modeling of a sparsely monitored basin in Sardinia, Italy, through hydrometeorological downscaling

The water resources and hydrologic extremes in Mediterranean basins are heavily influenced by climate variability. Modeling these watersheds is difficult due to the complex nature of the hydrologic response as well as the sparseness of hydrometeorological observations. In this work, we present a strategy to calibrate a distributed hydrologic model, known as TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), in the Rio Mannu basin (RMB), a medium-sized watershed (472.5 km2) located in an agricultural area in Sardinia, Italy. In the RMB, precipitation, streamflow and meteorological data were collected within different historical periods and at diverse temporal resolutions. We designed two statistical tools for downscaling precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data to create the hourly, high-resolution forcing for the hydrologic model from daily records. Despite the presence of several sources of uncertainty in the observations and model parameterization, the use of the disaggregated forcing led to good calibration and validation performances for the tRIBS model, when daily discharge observations were available. The methodology proposed here can be also used to disaggregate outputs of climate models and conduct high-resolution hydrologic simulations with the goal of quantifying the impacts of climate change on water resources and the frequency of hydrologic extremes within medium-sized basins

Tree effects on urban microclimate: diurnal, seasonal, and climatic temperature differences explained by separating radiation, evapotranspiration, and roughness effects

Increasing urban tree cover is an often proposed mitigation strategy against urban heat as trees are expected to cool cities through evapotranspiration and shade provision. However, trees also modify wind flow and urban aerodynamic roughness, which can potentially limit heat dissipation. Existing studies show a varying cooling potential of urban trees in different climates and times of the day. These differences are so far not systematically explained as partitioning the individual tree effects is challenging and impossible through observations alone. Here, we conduct numerical experiments removing and adding radiation, evapotranspiration, and aerodynamic roughness effects caused by urban trees using a mechanistic urban ecohydrological model. Simulations are presented for four cities in different climates (Phoenix, Singapore, Melbourne, Zurich) considering the seasonal and diurnal cycles of air and surface temperatures. Results show that evapotranspiration of well-watered trees alone can decrease local 2 m air temperature at maximum by 3.1 – 5.8 °C in the four climates during summer. Further cooling is prevented by stomatal closure at peak temperatures as high vapour pressure deficits limit transpiration. While shading reduces surface temperatures, the interaction of a non-transpiring tree with radiation can increase 2 m air temperature by up to 1.6 – 2.1 °C in certain hours of the day at local scale, thus partially counteracting the evapotranspirative cooling effect. Furthermore, in the analysed scenarios, which do not account for tree wind blockage effects, trees lead to a decrease in urban roughness, which inhibits turbulent energy exchange and increases air temperature during daytime. At night, single tree effects are variable likely due to differences in atmospheric stability within the urban canyon. These results explain reported diurnal, seasonal and climatic differences in the cooling effects of urban trees, and can guide future field campaigns, planning strategies, and species selection aimed at improving local microclimate using urban greenery

Opinion: Urban Resilience Efforts Must Consider Social And Political Forces

Environmental disasters, ranging from catastrophic floods to extreme temperatures, have caused more than 30,000 deaths per year and more than US$ 250–300 billion a year in economic losses, globally, between 1995 and 2015. Improved infrastructure and planning for extreme events is essential in urban areas, where an increasingly greater fraction of the world’s inhabitants reside. In response, international governmental and private initiatives have placed the goal of resilience at the center stage of urban planning. [For example, The 100 Resilient Cities Initiative (www.100resilientcities.org/); the Global Covenant of Mayors (https://www.compactofmayors.org/globalcovenantofmayors/); and the recent UN Habitat III (https://habitat3.org/the-new-urban-agenda)]. In addition, scientific and policy communities alike now recognize the need for “safe-to-fail” infrastructural design, and the potential role of green and blue infrastructure in mediating hydrological and climatic risks in cities

Connectivity: insights from the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network

Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex and surprising ways. Ongoing demand for critical ecosystem services requires an understanding of the populations and communities in these ecosystems in the future. This paper represents a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation-funded Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network addressing the core research area of “populations and communities.” The objective of this effort was to show the importance of long-term data collection and experiments for addressing the hardest questions in scientific ecology that have significant implications for environmental policy and management. Each LTER site developed at least one compelling case study about what their site could look like in 50–100 yr as human and environmental drivers influencing specific ecosystems change. As the case studies were prepared, five themes emerged, and the studies were grouped into papers in this LTER Futures Special Feature addressing state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. This paper addresses the “connectivity” theme and has examples from the Phoenix (urban), Niwot Ridge (alpine tundra), McMurdo Dry Valleys (polar desert), Plum Island (coastal), Santa Barbara Coastal (coastal), and Jornada (arid grassland and shrubland) sites. Connectivity has multiple dimensions, ranging from multi-scalar interactions in space to complex interactions over time that govern the transport of materials and the distribution and movement of organisms. The case studies presented here range widely, showing how land-use legacies interact with climate to alter the structure and function of arid ecosystems and flows of resources and organisms in Antarctic polar desert, alpine, urban, and coastal marine ecosystems. Long-term ecological research demonstrates that connectivity can, in some circumstances, sustain valuable ecosystem functions, such as the persistence of foundation species and their associated biodiversity or, it can be an agent of state change, as when it increases wind and water erosion. Increased connectivity due to warming can also lead to species range expansions or contractions and the introduction of undesirable species. Continued long-term studies are essential for addressing the complexities of connectivity. The diversity of ecosystems within the LTER network is a strong platform for these studies

Simulations of the 2004 North American Monsoon: NAMAP2

The second phase of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Model Assessment Project (NAMAP2) was carried out to provide a coordinated set of simulations from global and regional models of the 2004 warm season across the North American monsoon domain. This project follows an earlier assessment, called NAMAP, that preceded the 2004 field season of the North American Monsoon Experiment. Six global and four regional models are all forced with prescribed, time-varying ocean surface temperatures. Metrics for model simulation of warm season precipitation processes developed in NAMAP are examined that pertain to the seasonal progression and diurnal cycle of precipitation, monsoon onset, surface turbulent fluxes, and simulation of the low-level jet circulation over the Gulf of California. Assessment of the metrics is shown to be limited by continuing uncertainties in spatially averaged observations, demonstrating that modeling and observational analysis capabilities need to be developed concurrently. Simulations of the core subregion (CORE) of monsoonal precipitation in global models have improved since NAMAP, despite the lack of a proper low-level jet circulation in these simulations. Some regional models run at higher resolution still exhibit the tendency observed in NAMAP to overestimate precipitation in the CORE subregion; this is shown to involve both convective and resolved components of the total precipitation. The variability of precipitation in the Arizona/New Mexico (AZNM) subregion is simulated much better by the regional models compared with the global models, illustrating the importance of transient circulation anomalies (prescribed as lateral boundary conditions) for simulating precipitation in the northern part of the monsoon domain. This suggests that seasonal predictability derivable from lower boundary conditions may be limited in the AZNM subregion.open131