- UNEMPLOYMENT IN EUROPE AND REGIONAL LABOR FLUCTUATIONS

This paper studies the relationship between region-specific shocks in the European labor market and unemployment rates in Europe. The existing empirical literature in this topic employs measures hardly useful to analyze the issue at hand. We use a model for non-stationary evolving distributions to identify disaggregate and aggregate disturbances and analyze their joint dynamics. Our main findings are that unemployment is lower the more alike shocks are across regions and the lower mobility of those regional shocks is. Further, the dynamics of regional shocks have substantial predictive power for aggregate unemployment fluctuations.regional fluctuations, geographical region, unemployment, mismatch index, large crosssection.

"Playing the Brussels game: Strategic socialisation in the CFSP Council Working Groups*"

The aim of this article is to analyse the process of socialisation taking place at the level of the Council Working Groups (CWGs) dealing with the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). Based on recent empirical evidence, this article explains the main codes of conduct adopted by the national diplomats in the CFSP CWGs, such as the reflex coordination or consensus-building practice. Compliance with these rules stems from strategic calculations based on legitimacy concerns and the long-term perspective of the negotiations. Hence, in this case, the internalisation of norms has not taken place yet. Even though this view may suggest a conceptualisation of national representatives in the CWGs as passive “national champions”, it is argued here that they might also play a role in influencing the position of their capitals, mainly through the process of formulating the instructions

Swap structures semantics for Ivlev-like modal logics

In 1988, J. Ivlev proposed some (non-normal) modal systems which are semantically characterized by four-valued non-deterministic matrices in the sense of A. Avron and I. Lev. Swap structures are multialgebras (a.k.a. hyperalgebras) of a special kind, which were introduced in 2016 by W. Carnielli and M. Coniglio in order to give a non-deterministic semantical account for several paraconsistent logics known as logics of formal inconsistency, which are not algebraizable by means of the standard techniques. Each swap structure induces naturally a non-deterministic matrix. The aim of this paper is to obtain a swap structures semantics for some Ivlev-like modal systems proposed in 2015 by M. Coniglio, L. Fariñas del Cerro and N. Peron. Completeness results will be stated by means of the notion of Lindenbaum–Tarski swap structures, which constitute a natural generalization to multialgebras of the concept of Lindenbaum–Tarski algebras

Informal Referrals, Employment and Wages: Seeking Causal Directions

Employers and job seekers rely extensively on job informational networks to fill vacancies or to find a job. The widespread use of job contacts to find work has been largely associated with labor outcomes, such as finding a job or even affecting wages. Some scholars have claimed that informal referrals play a determinant role in reducing informational mismatches between potential employers and job seekers. Although several studies have shown that the use of friends and relatives is correlated with labor outcomes, little is known about the causal effect. In this article, I aim to identify whether there is a causal effect of using informal referrals on two main outcomes: the probability of being employed and hourly wages. I use a large data set from Colombia, the Living Standard Survey 2003, to contrast the results from three main methodologies: standard OLS estimation, propensity-score matching, and instrumental variables. Results suggest that much of the positive effect of using informal referrals on employment reflects the prevalence of informal-sector jobs to be filled through this method rather than a causal effect. On the contrary, the results for hourly wages suggest a negative causal effect of using job informational networks, which is explained by the low-quality/poor matches theory. Yet, this is only true in formal-sector firms.informal referrals, job search methods, employment rates, hourly wages, selec- tion bias, OLS, Propensity-Score Matching, Instrumental Variables, Roy Model

Diversity across Seasons of Culturable Pseudomonas from a Desiccation Lagoon in Cuatro Cienegas, Mexico.

Cuatro Cienegas basin (CCB) is a biodiversity reservoir within the Chihuahuan desert that includes several water systems subject to marked seasonality. While several studies have focused on biodiversity inventories, this is the first study that describes seasonal changes in diversity within the basin. We sampled Pseudomonas populations from a seasonally variable water system at four different sampling dates (August 2003, January 2004, January 2005, and August 2005). A total of 70 Pseudomonas isolates across seasons were obtained, genotyped by fingerprinting (BOX-PCR), and taxonomically characterized by 16S rDNA sequencing. We found 35 unique genotypes, and two numerically dominant lineages (16S rDNA sequences) that made up 64% of the sample: P. cuatrocienegasensis and P. otitidis. We did not recover genotypes across seasons, but lineages reoccurred across seasons; P. cuatrocienegasensis was isolated exclusively in winter, while P. otitidis was only recovered in summer. We statistically show that taxonomic identity of isolates is not independent of the sampling season, and that winter and summer populations are different. In addition to the genetic description of populations, we show exploratory measures of growth rates at different temperatures, suggesting physiological differences between populations. Altogether, the results indicate seasonal changes in diversity of free-living aquatic Pseudomonas populations from CCB

The Deadlock that never Happened: the Impact of Enlargement on the Common Foreign and Security Policy Council Working Groups

Contrary to some previous assumptions, the enlargement did not halt the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) decision-making process in a substantial way. Rather it changed the dynamics within the working environment, preserving the importance of consensus-building practices in the Council working groups. The aim of this article is twofold. First, it tracks the changes that the recent enlargement caused in the working practices of the Council working groups. It also attempts to assess the adaptation processes of the new member states to the work in the Council working groups and pinpoint the main challenges that their administrative systems were faced with.Council working groups, CFSP, enlargement, committee governance, informal rules, socialisation, adaptation, code of conduct

Nonlinear Cointegration and Nonlinear Error Correction: Record Counting Cointegration Tests

In this article we propose a record counting cointegration (RCC) test that is robust to nonlinearities and certain types of structural breaks. The RCC test is based on the synchronicity property of the jumps (new records) of cointegrated series, counting the number of jumps that simultaneously occur in both series. We obtain the rate of convergence of the RCC statistics under the null and alternative hypothesis. Since the asymptotic distribution of RCC under the null hypothesis of a unit root depends on the short-run dependence of the cointegrated series, we propose a small sample correction and show by Monte Carlo simulation techniques their excellent small sample behaviour. Finally, we apply our new cointegration test statistic to several financial and macroeconomic time series that have certain structural breaks and nonlinearities.Publicad