Case selection and causal inferences in qualitative comparative research

Traditionally, social scientists perceived causality as regularity. As a consequence, qualitative comparative case study research was regarded as unsuitable for drawing causal inferences since a few cases cannot establish regularity. The dominant perception of causality has changed, however. Nowadays, social scientists define and identify causality through the counterfactual effect of a treatment. This brings causal inference in qualitative comparative research back on the agenda since comparative case studies can identify counterfactual treatment effects. We argue that the validity of causal inferences from the comparative study of cases depends on the employed case-selection algorithm. We employ Monte Carlo techniques to demonstrate that different case-selection rules strongly differ in their ex ante reliability for making valid causal inferences and identify the most and the least reliable case selection rules

Cloaked Facebook pages: Exploring fake Islamist propaganda in social media

This research analyses cloaked Facebook pages that are created to spread political propaganda by cloaking a user profile and imitating the identity of a political opponent in order to spark hateful and aggressive reactions. This inquiry is pursued through a multi-sited online ethnographic case study of Danish Facebook pages disguised as radical Islamist pages, which provoked racist and anti-Muslim reactions as well as negative sentiments towards refugees and immigrants in Denmark in general. Drawing on Jessie Daniels’ critical insights into cloaked websites, this research furthermore analyses the epistemological, methodological and conceptual challenges of online propaganda. It enhances our understanding of disinformation and propaganda in an increasingly interactive social media environment and contributes to a critical inquiry into social media and subversive politics

X-ray and radio observations of central black holes in nearby low-mass early-type galaxies: Preliminary evidence for low Eddington fractions

We present new radio and X-ray observations of two nearby ($< 4$ Mpc) low-mass early-type galaxies with dynamically-confirmed central black holes: NGC 5102 and NGC 205. NGC 5102 shows a weak nuclear X-ray source and has no core radio emission. However, for the first time we demonstrate that it shows luminous extended radio continuum emission in low-resolution, low-frequency ($< 3$ GHz) data, consistent with jet lobes on scales $\gtrsim 100$ pc formed from past accretion and jet activity. By contrast, in new, extremely deep, strictly-simultaneous Very Large Array and Chandra observations, no radio or X-ray emission is detected from the black hole in NGC 205. We consider these measurements and upper limits in the context of the few other low-mass early-type galaxies with dynamically-confirmed black holes, and show that the mean ratio of bolometric to Eddington luminosity in this sample is only $\textrm{log} \, (L_{\rm bol}/L_{\rm Edd}) = -6.57\pm0.50$. These Eddington ratios are lower than typical in a comparison sample of more massive early-type galaxies, though this conclusion is quite tentative due to our small sample of low-mass galaxies and potential biases in the comparison sample. This preliminary result is in mild tension with previous work using less sensitive observations of more distant galaxies, which predict higher X-ray luminosities than we observe for low-mass galaxies. If it is confirmed that central black holes in low-mass galaxies typically have low Eddington ratios, this presents a challenge to measuring the occupation fraction of central black holes with standard optical emission line, X-ray, or radio surveys.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables. Accepted for publication in Ap

Most vital segment barriers

We study continuous analogues of "vitality" for discrete network flows/paths, and consider problems related to placing segment barriers that have highest impact on a flow/path in a polygonal domain. This extends the graph-theoretic notion of "most vital arcs" for flows/paths to geometric environments. We give hardness results and efficient algorithms for various versions of the problem, (almost) completely separating hard and polynomially-solvable cases

Measuring the mass of the central black hole in the bulgeless galaxy ngc 4395 from gas dynamical modeling

NGC 4395 is a bulgeless spiral galaxy, harboring one of the nearest known type 1 Seyfert nuclei. Although there is no consensus on the mass of its central engine, several estimates suggest it is one of the lightest massive black holes (MBHs) known. We present the first direct dynamical measurement of the mass of this MBH from a combination of two-dimensional gas kinematic data, obtained with the adaptive optics assisted near-infrared integral field spectrograph Gemini/NIFS and high-resolution multiband photometric data from Hubble Space Telescope's Wide Field Camera 3. We use the photometric data to model the shape and stellar mass-to-light ratio of the nuclear star cluster (NSC). From the Gemini/NIFS observations, we derive the kinematics of warm molecular hydrogen gas as traced by emission through the H2 1–0 S(1) transition. These kinematics show a clear rotational signal, with a position angle orthogonal to NGC 4395's radio jet. Our best-fitting tilted ring models of the kinematics of the molecular hydrogen gas contain a black hole with mass M={4}-3+8× {10}5 M⊙ (3σ uncertainties) embedded in an NSC of mass M=2× {10}6 M⊙. Our black hole mass measurement is in excellent agreement with the reverberation mapping mass estimate of Peterson et al. but shows some tension with other mass measurement methods based on accretion signals

How old are the stars in the halo of NGC 5128 (Centaurus A)?

NGC 5128 (Centaurus A) is, at the distance of just 3.8 Mpc, the nearest easily observable giant elliptical galaxy. Therefore it is the best target to investigate the early star formation history of an elliptical galaxy. Our aims are to establish when the oldest stars formed in NGC 5128, and whether this galaxy formed stars over a long period. We compare simulated colour-magnitude diagrams with the deep ACS/HST photometry. We find that that the observed colour-magnitude diagram can be reproduced satisfactorily only by simulations that have the bulk of the stars with ages in excess of ~10 Gyr, and that the alpha-enhanced models fit the data much better than the solar scaled ones. Data are not consistent with extended star formation over more than 3-4 Gyr. Two burst models, with 70-80% of the stars formed 12+/-1 Gyr ago and with 20-30% younger contribution with 2-4 Gyr old stars provide the best agreement with the data. The old component spans the whole metallicity range of the models (Z=0.0001-0.04), while for the young component the best fitting models indicate higher minimum metallicity (~1/10 - 1/4 Z_sun). The bulk of the halo stars in NGC5128 must have formed at redshift z>=2 and the chemical enrichment was very fast, reaching solar or even twice-solar metallicity already for the ~11-12 Gyr old population. The minor young component, adding ~20-30% of the stars to the halo, and contributing less than 10% of the mass, may have resulted from a later star formation event ~2-4 Gyr ago. (abridged)Comment: 36 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Thomson Scattering Measurements of Plasma Dynamics

The authors propose to investigate the dynamics of plasmas in the warm dense matter (WDM) regime on ultra-short time scales. Accessible plasma conditions are in the density range of n = 10{sup 20} - 10{sup 23} cm{sup -3} and at moderate temperatures of T = 1 - 20 eV. These plasmas are of importance for laboratory astrophysics, high energy density science and inertial confinement fusion. They are characterized by a coupling parameter of {Lambda} {approx}&gt; 1, where electromagnetic interactions are of the same order as the kinetic energy. The high density of the plasma makes it opaque to radiation in the visible range and, as a consequence, UV up to x-ray radiation can be used to probe such systems. Therefore a wide range in the temperature-density plane of WDM is presently unexplored and only the VUV-FEL opens for the first time the opportunity for its detailed investigation. In equilibrium, the macroscopic state of the plasma is completely characterized by its density and temperature. In pump-probe experiments however, the plasma is initially in a nonequilibrium state and relaxes towards equilibrium within the relaxation time {tau}{sub R}. For t &gt; {tau}{sub R}, the plasma is in an equilibrium state and expands hydrodynamically on a time scale {tau}{sub H}. The proposed experiment measures the time-resolved Thomson scattering signal with the VUV-FEL radiation characterizing the plasma in equilibrium and nonequilibrium states. Both regimes are extremely interesting and will provide new insight into the following phenomena: (1) details of nonequilibrium correlations, (2) relaxation phenomena, (3) hydrodynamic expansion, (4) recombination kinetics. The time-resolved Thomson scattering signal is obtained in a pump-probe experiment by varying the delay between pump and probe. The final stage of the relaxation process (t {approx} {tau}{sub R}) is of special interest since the plasma components (electrons and ion species) can be assumed to be in quasi-equilibrium. This allows for accurate measurements of the electron temperature using the detailed balance relation. For times t {approx}&lt; {tau}{sub R} the scattering spectrum provides also the plasmon damping in nonequilibrium from which information on the formation and decay of collective excitations at short time scales can be obtained. At large time scales (t {approx}&gt; {tau}{sub H}) the hydrodynamic expansion of the plasma sets in. Detailed information on the evolution of the plasma in this regime is available from sophisticated hydrodynamic computer simulations which can be tested with the proposed measurements. With the decreasing plasma density due to the expansion, recombination processes become important and need to be considered as well

K-alpha conversion efficiency measurments for x-ray scattering in inertial confinement fusion plasmas

The conversion efficiency of ultra short-pulse laser radiation to K-{alpha} x-rays has been measured for various chlorine-containing targets to be used as x-ray scattering probes of dense plasmas. The spectral and temporal properties of these sources will allow spectrally-resolved x-ray scattering probing with picosecond temporal resolution required for measuring the plasma conditions in inertial confinement fusion experiments. Simulations of x-ray scattering spectra from these plasmas show that fuel capsule density, capsule ablator density, and shock timing information may be inferred