249 research outputs found

    The Forward-Discount Puzzle in Central and Eastern Europe

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    This paper adds to evidence that the forward-discount puzzle is at least partly explained as a compensation for taking crash-risk. A number of Central and Eastern European exchange rates are compared. A Hidden Markov Model is used to identify two regimes for most of the exchange rates. These two regimes can be characterised as being either periods of stability or periods of instability. The level of international risk aversion and changes in US interest rates affect the probability of switching from one regime to the other. This model is then used to assess the way that these two factors affect the probability of a currency crisis. While the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria are very sensitive to international financial conditions, Poland and Romania are relatively immune. JEL classifications: C24, F31, F32; Key words: Exchange rates, uncovered interest parity, foreign exchange risk discount, hidden-Markov model, carry-trad

    Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Ischemic Stroke in Young Adults

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    Ischemic stroke (IS) is among the leading causes of death in Western countries. There is a significant genetic component to IS susceptibility, especially among young adults. To date, research to identify genetic loci predisposing to stroke has met only with limited success. We performed a genome-wide association (GWA) analysis of early-onset IS to identify potential stroke susceptibility loci. The GWA analysis was conducted by genotyping 1 million SNPs in a biracial population of 889 IS cases and 927 controls, ages 15–49 years. Genotypes were imputed using the HapMap3 reference panel to provide 1.4 million SNPs for analysis. Logistic regression models adjusting for age, recruitment stages, and population structure were used to determine the association of IS with individual SNPs. Although no single SNP reached genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8), we identified two SNPs in chromosome 2q23.3, rs2304556 (in FMNL2; P = 1.2 × 10−7) and rs1986743 (in ARL6IP6; P = 2.7 × 10−7), strongly associated with early-onset stroke. These data suggest that a novel locus on human chromosome 2q23.3 may be associated with IS susceptibility among young adults

    Mantle-driven dynamic uplift of the Rocky Mountains and Colorado Plateau and its surface response: Toward a unified hypothesis

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    The correspondence between seismic velocity anomalies in the crust and mantle and the differential incision of the continental-scale Colorado River system suggests that significant mantle-to-surface interactions can take place deep within continental interiors. The Colorado Rocky Mountain region exhibits low-seismic-velocity crust and mantle associated with atypically high (and rough) topography, steep normalized river segments, and areas of greatest differential river incision. Thermochronologic and geologic data show that regional exhumation accelerated starting ca. 6-10 Ma, especially in regions underlain by low-velocity mantle. Integration and synthesis of diverse geologic and geophysical data sets support the provocative hypothesis that Neogene mantle convection has driven long-wavelength surface deformation and tilting over the past 10 Ma. Attendant surface uplift on the order of 500-1000 m may account for ~25%-50% of the current elevation of the region, with the rest achieved during Laramide and mid-Tertiary uplift episodes. This hypothesis highlights the importance of continued multidisciplinary tests of the nature and magnitude of surface responses to mantle dynamics in intraplate settings

    Rare Variants in Ischemic Stroke: An Exome Pilot Study

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    The genetic architecture of ischemic stroke is complex and is likely to include rare or low frequency variants with high penetrance and large effect sizes. Such variants are likely to provide important insights into disease pathogenesis compared to common variants with small effect sizes. Because a significant portion of human functional variation may derive from the protein-coding portion of genes we undertook a pilot study to identify variation across the human exome (i.e., the coding exons across the entire human genome) in 10 ischemic stroke cases. Our efforts focused on evaluating the feasibility and identifying the difficulties in this type of research as it applies to ischemic stroke. The cases included 8 African-Americans and 2 Caucasians selected on the basis of similar stroke subtypes and by implementing a case selection algorithm that emphasized the genetic contribution of stroke risk. Following construction of paired-end sequencing libraries, all predicted human exons in each sample were captured and sequenced. Sequencing generated an average of 25.5 million read pairs (75 bp×2) and 3.8 Gbp per sample. After passing quality filters, screening the exomes against dbSNP demonstrated an average of 2839 novel SNPs among African-Americans and 1105 among Caucasians. In an aggregate analysis, 48 genes were identified to have at least one rare variant across all stroke cases. One gene, CSN3, identified by screening our prior GWAS results in conjunction with our exome results, was found to contain an interesting coding polymorphism as well as containing excess rare variation as compared with the other genes evaluated. In conclusion, while rare coding variants may predispose to the risk of ischemic stroke, this fact has yet to be definitively proven. Our study demonstrates the complexities of such research and highlights that while exome data can be obtained, the optimal analytical methods have yet to be determined

    The Mantle Transition Zone Beneath West Antarctica: Seismic Evidence for Hydration and Thermal Upwellings

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    Although prior work suggests that a mantle plume is associated with Cenozoic rifting and volcanism in West Antarctica, the existence of a plume remains conjectural. Here we use P wave receiver functions (PRFs) from the Antarctic POLENET array to estimate mantle transition zone thickness, which is sensitive to temperature perturbations, throughout previously unstudied parts of West Antarctica. We obtain over 8000 high-quality PRFs using an iterative, time domain deconvolution method filtered with a Gaussian width of 0.5 and 1.0, corresponding to frequencies less than ∼0.24 and ∼0.48 Hz, respectively. Single-station and common conversion point stacks, migrated to depth using the AK135 velocity model, indicate that mantle transition zone thickness throughout most of West Antarctica does not differ significantly from the global average, except in two locations; one small region exhibits a vertically thinned (210 ± 15 km) transition zone beneath the Ruppert Coast of Marie Byrd Land and another laterally broader region shows slight, vertical thinning (225 ± 25 km) beneath the Bentley Subglacial Trench. We also observe the 520 discontinuity and a prominent negative peak above the mantle transition zone throughout much of West Antarctica. These results suggest that the mantle transition zone may be hotter than average in two places, possibly due to upwelling from the lower mantle, but not broadly across West Antarctica. Furthermore, we propose that the transition zone may be hydrated due to \u3e100 million years of subduction beneath the region during the early Mesozoic
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