Cohort Trends in Working Life Expectancies at Age 50 in the United States : A Register-Based Study Using Social Security Administration Data

Objectives: Little is known about the length of working life, even though it is a key indicator for policy-makers. In this paper, we study how the length of working life at age 50 has developed in the United States from a cohort perspective. Methods: We use a large longitudinal sample of U.S. Social Security register data that covers close to 1.7 million individuals of the cohorts born from 1920 to 1965. For all of these cohorts, we study the employment trajectories and working life expectancy (WLE) at age 50 by gender and nativity (native-born/foreign-born). For the cohorts with employment trajectories that are only incompletely observed, we borrow information from older cohorts to predict their WLE. Results: The length of working life has been increasing for the native-born males and females, and the younger cohorts worked longer than the older cohorts. However, WLE might soon peak, and then stall. The gap in WLE between the nativeborn and the foreign-born has increased over time, although latter group might be able to catch up in the coming years. Discussion: Our findings show that studying employment from a cohort perspective reveals crucial information about patterns of working life. The future development of the length of working life should be a major concern for policy-makers.Peer reviewe

Vorausberechnung von Verwandtschaft: Wie sich die gemeinsame Lebenszeit von Kindern, Eltern und Großeltern zukünftig entwickelt

Nahe Verwandte wie zum Beispiel Eltern und Kinder spielen im alltäglichen Leben vieler Menschen eine wichtige Rolle. In Hinblick auf den demographischen Wandel - steigende Lebenserwartung und sinkende Geburtenzahlen - stellt sich die Frage, wie sich das Vorhandensein von Verwandten in Zukunft ändern wird. Dieser Frage wird in der vorliegenden Arbeit nachgegangen und mögliche Auswirkungen zukünftiger Veränderungen auf die gemeinsame Lebenszeit von Generationen und auf den Bereich der Pflege untersucht.Nahe Verwandte wie zum Beispiel Eltern und Kinder spielen im alltäglichen Leben vieler Menschen eine wichtige Rolle. In Hinblick auf den demographischen Wandel - steigende Lebenserwartung und sinkende Geburtenzahlen - stellt sich die Frage, wie sich das Vorhandensein von Verwandten in Zukunft ändern wird. Dieser Frage wird in der vorliegenden Arbeit nachgegangen und mögliche Auswirkungen zukünftiger Veränderungen auf die gemeinsame Lebenszeit von Generationen und auf den Bereich der Pflege untersucht. (Anhang, s. https://doi.org/10.3224/84740183A)

Vorausberechnung von Verwandtschaft

Close relatives such as parents and children play an important role in the daily lives of many people. In view of demographic change - increasing life expectancy and declining birth rates - the question arises as to how the presence of relatives will change in the future. This question is explored in the present book and the possible effects of future changes on the common lifetime of generations and on the field of care are examined

The Legacy of the Great Recession in Italy : A Wider Geographical, Gender, and Generational Gap in Working Life Expectancy

Under the pressure of population aging the Italian pension system has undergone reforms to increase labor force participation and retirement age, and, thus, the length of working life. However, how the duration of working life has developed in recent years is not well understood. This paper is the first to analyze trends in working life expectancy in Italy. We use data from a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 880,000 individuals from 2003 to 2013 and estimate working life expectancy by gender, occupational category, and region of residence using a Markov chain approach. We document large and increasing heterogeneity in the length of working life. From 2003–2004 to 2012–2013, working life expectancy for men declined from 35.2 to 27.2 years and for women from 34.7 to 23.7 years, increasing the gender gap to 3.5 years. Both young and old were hit, as roughly half of the decline was attributable to ages below 40, half above 40. Working life expectancy declined for all occupational groups, but those in manual occupations lost most, 8.5 years (men) and 10.5 years (women). The North–South economic gradient widened such that men living in the North were expected to work 8 years longer than women living in the South. The fraction of working life of total life expectancy at age 15 declined to record lows at 40% for men and 34% for women in 2012–2013. Policies aiming at increasing total population working life expectancy need to take into consideration the socio-demographic disparities highlighted by our results.Peer reviewe

a comparison of approaches for the estimation of equivalence scales using German expenditure data

Equivalence scales are routinely applied to adjust the income of households of different sizes and compositions. Because of their practical importance for the measurement of inequality and poverty, a large number of methods for the estimation of equivalence scales have been proposed. Until now, however, no comprehensive comparison of current methods has been conducted. In this paper, we employ German household expenditure data to estimate equivalence scales using several parametric, semiparametric, and nonparametric approaches. Using a single dataset, we find that some approaches yield more plausible results than others while implausible scales are mostly based on linear Engel curves. The results we consider plausible are close to the modified OECD scale, and to the square root scale for larger households

Working and disability expectancies at older ages: the role of childhood circumstances and education

The ability to work at older ages depends on health and education. Both accumulate starting very early in life. We assess how childhood disadvantages combine with education to affect working and health trajectories. Applying multistate period life tables to data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) for the period 2008–2014, we estimate how the residual life expectancy at age 50 is distributed in number of years of work and disability, by number of childhood disadvantages, gender, and race/ethnicity. Our findings indicate that number of childhood disadvantages is negatively associated with work and positively with disability, irrespective of gender and race/ethnicity. Childhood disadvantages intersect with low education resulting in shorter lives, and redistributing life years from work to disability. Among the highly educated, health and work differences between groups of childhood disadvantage are small. Combining multistate models and inverse probability weighting, we show that the return of high education is greater among the most disadvantaged

The extension of late working life in Germany: trends, inequalities, and the East-West divide

The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. Here, we use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onwards for the 1941-1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours, and present results for western and eastern Germany by gender, education, and occupation. While working life expectancy has increased across cohorts, we find strong regional and socioeconomic disparities. Decomposition analyses show that among males, socioeconomic differences are predominantly driven by variation in employment rates; whereas among women, variation in working hours is also highly relevant. Older eastern German women have longer working lives than older western German women, which is likely attributable to the GDR legacy of high female employment

The extension of late working life in Germany : trends, inequalities, and the East-West divide

The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. Here, we use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onwards for the 1941-1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours, and present results for western and eastern Germany by gender, education, and occupation. While working life expectancy has increased across cohorts, we find strong regional and socioeconomic disparities. Decomposition analyses show that among males, socioeconomic differences are predominantly driven by variation in employment rates; whereas among women, variation in working hours is also highly relevant. Older eastern German women have longer working lives than older western German women, which is likely attributable to the GDR legacy of high female employment

Magnitude, global variation, and temporal development of the COVID-19 infection fatality burden

How deadly is an infection with SARS-CoV-2 worldwide over time? This information is critical for developing and assessing public health responses on the country and global levels. However, imperfect data have been the most limiting factor for estimating the COVID-19 infection fatality burden during the first year of the pandemic. Here we leverage recently emerged compelling data sources and broadly applicable modeling strategies to estimate the crude infection fatality rate (cIFR) in 77 countries from 28 March 2020 to 31 March 2021, using 2.4 million reported deaths and estimated 435 million infections by age, sex, country, and date. The global average of all cIFR estimates is 1.2% (10th to 90th percentile: 0.2% to 2.4%). The cIFR varies strongly across countries, but little within countries over time, and it is often lower for women than men. Cross-country differences in cIFR are largely driven by the age structures of both the general and the truly infected population. While the broad trends and patterns of the cIFR estimates are more robust, we show that their levels are uncertain and sensitive to input data and modeling choices. In consequence, increased efforts at collecting high-quality data are essential for accurately estimating the cIFR, which is a key indicator for better understanding the health and mortality consequences of this pandemic